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Every week, SDS will look at what goes into the College football Playoff selection committee’s latest rankings and what factors will influence their picks based on the previous weekend’s results.
Did the SEC just lose its shot at two Playoff bids?
Losses by Georgia and Ole Miss over the weekend crippled the league’s chances at placing two teams in semifinal games considering three other contenders — all from the West — will beat up on one another over the next month.
The SEC’s best shot now is for top-ranked Mississippi State to win out at 13-0 (SEC title game win) and Auburn to finish 11-1 (second in the West) with remaining wins over Georgia and Alabama.
The 12-member selection committee’s final pairings are released on Dec. 7 with supposed transparency and no personal bias. The most likely points of emphasis for the next four weeks are as follows :
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition
- Comparing results against common opponents
- Relative factors that may have altered a team’s performance (injuries)
Here’s an explanation on how we think the committee will take these factors into account.
Making an educated guess based on those factors stated by the CFP committee, here’s how we expect the second Top 10 to look Tuesday night. The first CFP can be seen here.
- Mississippi State
- Florida State
- Auburn
- Oregon
- Alabama
- TCU
- Michigan State
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
- Arizona State
Conference championship potential
Who it helps: Michigan State, Oregon, Florida State, Marshall, Mississippi State
Who it hurts: Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, Georgia, Ole Miss
Takeaways: Several SEC teams took themselves out of the conversation over the weekend including Ole Miss after its second consecutive loss in the Western Division. LSU’s an SEC longshot, but a win over Alabama this weekend would surely toss a wrench into the selection committee’s next set of rankings.
Strength of schedule
Who it helps: Auburn, Oregon, Mississippi State, Alabama
Who it hurts: Big Ten contenders, Marshall, Florida State
Takeaways: The Seminoles’ schedule may not be as challenging as some, but last week’s road win at nationally-ranked Louisville will hold water with the committee. Florida State’s non-conference win over Notre Dame may not be as strong as it once appeared (should the Irish stumble), but the Seminoles are if they win out.
Head to head outcomes
Who it helps: TCU, Oregon, Mississippi State, Auburn
Who it hurts: Michigan State, Baylor, Kansas State, LSU
Takeaways: Could Kansas State’s loss to Auburn keep the Wildcats out of the CFP? Should Bill Snyder’s team win the rest of their remaining games including victories over TCU, West Virginia and Baylor, the Wildcats shouldn’t have to argue as the Big XII champion. The four at the top in this category are currently ranked in the committee’s Top 7 and that will only improve after last weekend’s results (four wins).
Common opponent results
Who it helps: Mississippi State, TCU, Oregon
Who it hurts: Michigan State (Oregon loss), Georgia
Takeaways: Georgia’s two losses are painful, setbacks that won’t get the Bulldogs very far in the eyes of the selection committee. The Bulldogs were dominated in Jacksonville by a mediocre Florida squad and beaten earlier in the season by the Gamecocks, currently 4-5 in danger of missing a bowl game.
Relevant factors including injuries
Who it helps: Ohio State, Oregon
Who it hurts: Arizona
Takeaways: Ohio State’s initial No. 16 ranking in the CFP Poll indicated the Buckeyes’ weak strength of schedule plus a horrid home loss to Virginia Tech, but losing Heisman candidate Braxton Miller for the season early could’ve been detrimental to OSU’s title hopes. Instead, the Buckeyes have a road game this weekend at Michigan State that could decide the Big Ten’s lone Playoff spot. Urban Meyer would need a ton of help from others at the end, however.
