One of college football’s favorite arguments centers around which teams are overrated and which are underrated.

It can seem like an endless debate that circles people’s conference bias affiliation.

But let’s stop the bickering for a minute, because we may have a method to help settle this debate.

The website Stassen.com has been tracking preseason prognostications for teams during the last 26 seasons, and comparing them where that team finishes in the final AP poll released at the end of the season.

The idea is that after a good length of time you’ll be able to see which teams are consistently predicted to be better or worse than they turn out to be when the dust settled at the end of the season.

Here is an example of how it works:

If a team is picked as the No. 2 team in the preseason and finished as the No. 6 team in the final AP poll, that would be a “-4” score for that season. Similarly, if a team was picked to finish No. 20 and actually finished No. 15, it would be a “+5” score for the year.

If a team isn’t ranked in the Top 25 at the beginning or end of the season, the math is completed as though the team was ranked as “No. 26” in the country.

The data on this method goes all the way back to 1989.

Stassen puts the following disclaimer on its data, and I think it would be wise for everyone to keep it in mind when reviewing the numbers:

Note: These numbers do not really reflect how good the teams are; they instead reflect how well they lived up to preseason expectations. Any Sun Belt member would have a score of zero (since they never had a team ranked in preseason or final polls during this span) but that would not mean each of those teams are stronger than the ones (such as Southern Cal) which ended up with negative numbers in this list.

With that considered, here is what the cumulative results of the last 26 seasons tell us:

10 Most Overrated teams

1. Texas (-118)
2. Oklahoma (-109.5)
3. USC (-101)
4. Nebraska (-90.5)
5. Michigan (-88.5)
6. Notre Dame (-86.5)
7. Florida State (-80.5)
8. Florida (-69.5)
9. LSU (-62.5)
10. Miami (-61)

10 most underrated teams

1. Boise State (+78)
2. Oregon (+74)
3. Washington State (+70)
4. Utah (+69)
5. TCU (+62)
6. Kansas State (+56)
7. Michigan State (+49.5)
8. Boston College (+44.5)
9. Missouri (+40.5)
10. Cincinnati (+37)

Overrated SEC teams

1. Florida (-69.5)
2. LSU (-62.5)
3. Texas A&M (-47)
4. Tennessee (-45)
5. Georgia (-18)

Underrated SEC teams

1. Missouri (+40)
2. Ole Miss (+32.5)
3. Mississippi State (+31.5)
4. Alabama (+22.5)

Accurately rated SEC teams

South Carolina (+10)
Auburn (+9.5)
Arkansas (+9)
Vanderbilt (+5)
Kentucky (0)

Some of the folks on the college football subreddit used the same methodology to break things down for the four most recent seasons.

Interestingly enough, both the most overrated (Oklahoma) and underrated (Baylor) teams hail from the Big 12.

Here is how the SEC has fared since 2011, listed from overrated to underrated:

LSU (-24)
Georgia (-15)
South Carolina (-12)
Arkansas (-8)
Florida (-7)
Texas A&M (-6)
Alabama (-6)
Ole Miss (-2)
Auburn (+2)
Vanderbilt (+5)
Mississippi State (+10)
Missouri (+21)

Note: Tennessee and Kentucky were not ranked at the beginning or end of those four seasons.

So what have we learned from this fairly simple methodology?

Here are some thoughts:

  • Kentucky is the only SEC team to not register on the top 25 radar (preseason or postseason) during the 26 years examined.
  • Florida and LSU tend to receive a very generous preseason ranking, and while most seasons the teams are good, the schools often have a hard time living up that billing.
  • Just like we tend to underrate Missouri in the SEC East race, so too have the Tigers been traditionally underrated in the preseason prognostications.
  • Fans of the Mississippi schools will often tell you they feel slighted when it comes to comparisons to fellow SEC West schools, and it seems to hold true in the national polls. They often perform better than anticipated.