The opening lines for the second weekend of the college football season have just been released and, as always, there’s hidden value in many of the lines before the money begins to flow in on the action, ultimately shifting the lines.
Following the terrific opening week of high-profile games, the SEC’s Week 2 slate is full of significantly more dud games: Georgia vs. Nicholls State, LSU vs. Jacksonville State, Ole Miss vs. Wofford and Texas A&M vs. Prairie View A&M. Those games will not be discussed due to their horrible competitive nature, making betting lines significantly harder to gauge. In fact, none of those games have an opening line, according to Vegas Insider.
Marquee games:
Tennessee (-9) vs. Virginia Tech – game at Bristol Motor Speedway
This is a tricky game to predict, given both teams will be playing in an unfamiliar environment and with so many variables that could affect either team, or potentially both, in unexpected ways in front of a nationally televised audience.
Looking past all the unpredictable factors, Tennessee’s Thursday night performance was tough to watch and had much of the nation poking fun of the Vols following the offseason hype. Many have since pointed out that Appalachian State proved to be a vastly underrated team heading into the season. While that likely is the case, it should n0t be an excuse for a team considered to be an SEC contender playing in front of its home crowd.
Look for the majority of public money to come in on Virginia Tech and shrink the line. Tennessee is the smart play at -7 but not at more than a touchdown at this point – the advantage belongs to the Hokies at opening.
Arkansas (+4) at TCU
The Hogs nearly did it again and slipped up early at home, beating Louisiana Tech by only one at home on Saturday. Heading into the season, Arkansas’ offensive line was a real question mark and ended up giving up four sacks to Tech (The Hogs OL gave up 14 total in 2015). On the flip side, the defense was as good as advertised, Rawleigh Williams emerged as a No. 1 back and while Austin Allen forced a couple of bad throws, he showed incredible toughness and made the clutch throw to win the game — something his brother Brandon failed to do until Year 4 under center in Fayetteville.
Meanwhile, TCU struggled at home against South Dakota State until the second half and gave up over 460 yards and 41 points to the Jackrabbits.
Take Arkansas and all the points you can get in this one. The line should drop close to a pick’em – the advantage belongs to Arkansas at opening.
Conference games:
Florida (-16.5) vs. Kentucky
Sure, Kentucky choked away a big lead against Southern Miss, but the Wildcats just played a better quarterback in Nick Mullens than it will play this weekend in Luke Del Rio. Until proven otherwise, the Gators’ offense continues to struggle in life post-Will Grier, and while Florida should easily win this game, Kentucky has the firepower to score on the Gators.
Two years ago, Kentucky lost in Gainesville by 6 and followed that up with a 5-point loss a season ago. Look for this line to drift down to 13-14 by kickoff – the advantage belongs to the Wildcats at opening.
Mississippi State (-9.5) vs. South Carolina
Not sure if Vegas saw these two play last weekend, but Mississippi State lost to South Alabama at home while South Carolina beat Vanderbilt on the road outright after entering the game as an underdog. After watching the Gamecocks’ offense, scoring could be an issue all season, but with this many points, South Carolina is a given at opening.
Take South Carolina unless the line drops below four – the advantage belongs to the Gamecocks at opening.
Other games of interest:
Alabama (-24) vs. Western Kentucky
The world just saw Alabama destroy USC by 46 in Dallas, so beating WKU by 50 at home should be a piece of cake, right? Then why is the line only 24? Believe it or not, I like the Hilltoppers in this matchup — kind of.
Watch for this line to get driven up as the money comes in on Alabama, potentially as high as -30, and if it indeed does, I would take Western Kentucky at anything over +28. The Tide are still working things out on both sides of the ball, and the Hilltoppers historically have a potent offensive attack under third-year head coach Jeff Brohm.
If the line continues to pump up, take Western Kentucky and the points – the advantage belongs to Alabama at opening.
A graduate of the University of Tennessee, Michael Wayne Bratton oversees the news coverage for Saturday Down South. Michael previously worked for FOX Sports and NFL.com
