Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series of all 17 ACC teams concludes with Wake Forest. Friday, we’ll preview part-time ACC member Notre Dame.

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When you’re the smallest FBS school in the country with higher academic standards and fewer financial resources than most of your competitors, you have to do things differently to succeed.

Dave Clawson likes to call it “the Wake Forest Way.”

It’s a system of recruiting, retention and player development that produced a school record 7 straight bowl appearances. But times have changed in the era of name, image and likeness compensation and unlimited transfers.

So after falling to 4-8, missing out on the postseason for the first time since 2016 and losing 15 players to the portal last season – including 3 of his top 4 receivers, 2nd-leading rusher, 2 quarterbacks and interceptions leader – Clawson realized some tweaks are in order.

“When things are going well, you don’t want to mess with it,” Clawson said. “Then you have a thump, you go 4-8 and it makes you examine everything. For me to not change anything would be saying everything we did as a coaching staff was correct. You have to accept responsibility for it, too, and say ‘Why were you 4-8, where were the mistakes made and how do you do things differently to fix what went wrong?’

“We didn’t change things radically. But we did enough that I think our players noticed that this wasn’t OK and we’re addressing these issues going forward.”

The biggest change is Clawson’s decision to bring in a transfer quarterback, 6th-year graduate Hank Bachmeier.

He also adjusted his offensive and defensive schemes, along with changes in his practice routines – including live 11-on-11 drills run simultaneously on 2 fields in order to develop better depth by giving more players more reps. Especially on an offensive line in desperate need of improvement after allowing an ACC-high 49 sacks in 2023.

Will those tweaks to the “Wake Forest Way” be enough to keep the Deacons’ 1-year thump from becoming a multi-season crash down toward the bottom of the conference standings?

Let’s break it down and find out.

Transfer tracker

The transfer portal has been portrayed as the quick fix that cures all ills for program in need of veteran help to address areas of need.

And at some schools, it is. Wake Forest is different.

First of all, it’s one of the little guys whose roster provides much of the veteran talent the big fish are looking to gobble up. Even with a well-organized NIL collective, funded heavily by alumnus Mit Shah, Clawson simply can’t match some of the offers being thrown around by the likes of Alabama (who got CB DeShawn Jones), NC State (WR Wesley Grimes) and Indians (RB Justice Ellison and WR Ke’Shawn Williams).

The other side of the equation is the academic requirements that limit Clawson’s incoming transfer options.

“Who can we get as transfers?” the Deacons coach said. “We get guys who graduated from other schools with high GPAs that can get into our graduate program. But because we don’t accept three-quarters of the credits from another school, the other guys we get are in their 1st or 2nd year, from lower levels that clearly out-achieved their level.

“They come from high academic schools where we can accept all their credits. Those guys are smart. Smart guys accumulate things and pick them quicker. So our disadvantages in some ways become our advantages.”

Five of Wake’s 6 portal additions fit the first description. Besides Bachmeier, they are cornerbacks Capone Blue from Kent State and C’Darius Kelley from Lenoir-Rhyne, linebacker Branson Combs from Southern Illinois and offensive tackle Keagen Trost from Indiana State. The other is junior edge rusher Mateen Ibirogba from Georgetown.

Is Hank Bachmeier the answer at QB?

Clawson abstained from bringing in a transfer quarterback last year because he wanted to give Mitch Griffis an opportunity after patiently spending 3 seasons at Sam Hartman’s understudy.

Griffis struggled and was replaced by Michael Kern, who was subsequently replaced by Santino Marucci before regaining the position to finish the season. With all but Kern now gone, Clawson decided to hedge his bets with the addition of Bachmeier.

A 6th-year graduate transfer, Bachmeier comes to Wake after throwing for 8,663 yards and 53 touchdowns at previous stops Boise State and Louisiana Tech. He ranked 3rd in Conference-USA last season with 2,058 yards and was impressive in the Deacons’ spring game.

“He’s been in a lot of different systems with good coaches,” Clawson said. “He knows football and has been taught very well. … He’s a very accurate passer and throws a nice, tight ball. I think he anticipates windows and he’s even a better athlete than we anticipated.”

He also has the experience, the poise and the proven track record that was missing from the Deacons’ quarterback room a year ago.

He even has a win against Florida State on his resume. In Tallahassee, no less. As a true freshman in 2019, Bachmeier got up off the ground after being sacked 5 times to lead Boise State to a 36-31 victory. He completed 30-of-51 passes for 407 yards and a touchdown in the game while also running for the winning score in the 4th quarter to cap an 18-point comeback against the Seminoles.

Line of demarcation

As much promise as Bachmeier brings to Wake’s trademark slow-mesh attack, a quarterback is only as good as the offensive line in front of him. And at least some of the problems encountered by Griffis, Kern and Marucci last season can be attributed to the lack of protection they received.

The Deacons allowed an ACC-high 49 sacks in 2023, an average of more than 4 per game. They also gave up 91 tackles for loss. Those are 2 major reasons they fell to 14th in the league in scoring (20.3 ppg) and total offense (327.8 ypg) after averaging better than 30 ppg and breaking school records for points per game, offensive yards and passing yards over the previous 5 seasons.

“Before you can go forward, you have to stop going backward,” Clawsons said. “It’s the worst offense we’ve had since 2015. And our negative yardage plays and sacks were back to that level. Some of it was the o-line and some of it was the quarterback holding the ball too long. It’s never 1 simple thing.”

Whatever the answer might be, Clawson will have to rely on a lot of familiar faces to find it. Other than grad transfer Trost, who started 19 games over the past 2 seasons for Indiana State, Wake’s offensive line options are the same as they were last year. Minus departed starters Michael Jurgens and Spencer Clapp.

“Last year wasn’t a representation of us,” senior tackle DeVonte Gordon said. “We trust each other to right what went wrong last year. We trust our coaches will lead us in the right way to bring Wake Forest where Wake Forest wants to be.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. North Carolina A&T (W)

Hank Bachmeier and his new offensive line get a dress rehearsal to prepare for the real tests to come. And they’re coming in a hurry.

Week 2: vs. Virginia (W)

This is an intensely important ACC opener for both teams, each of whom has little margin for error and can’t afford to let any winnable conference game get away. The Deacons won’t let that happen because it’s at home and Demond Claiborne is poised for a breakout game against a UVa defense that has had trouble stopping the run.

Week 3: vs. Ole Miss (L)

This would have been an interesting matchup a couple of years ago when it was scheduled. But now, in the Deacons’ current state of rebuild compared with Ole Miss’ rise under Lane Kiffin, they’ll do well just to keep the score respectable against a high-level SEC opponent.

Week 4: Open

Week 5: vs. Louisiana (W)

These aren’t the same high-scoring, explosive Ragin’ Cajuns of the Billy Napier era. As long as Wake’s reworked offensive line can keep Louisiana’s solid pass rush out of the backfield, Wake should be able to score enough to avoid an upset.

Week 6: at NC State (L)

Home-field really is an advantage in this series. While the Deacons have won 9 of the past 11 meetings in Winston-Salem, the Wolfpack are 7-1 in the past 8 in Raleigh. This year’s game at Carter-Finley Stadium comes with a twinge of sadness. After playing every year since 1910, the longest continuous rivalry between ACC schools will end next year thanks to the expanded league’s new scheduling model.

Week 7: vs. Clemson (L)

The last time the Deacons beat the Tigers, Tommy Bowden was fired the next day and a young assistant named Dabo Swinney was elevated to replace him on an interim basis. Fifteen years later, Swinney still hasn’t lost to Wake. And other than last season’s 17-12 cliffhanger at Death Valley, few have been close. Ten of those 15 straight wins were by 20 points or more.

Week 8: vs. at UConn (W)

The Huskies have become the ACC’s whipping boys over the past 3 seasons. They’re 1-6 against conference teams, with 3 of the losses coming at home. UConn’s 3 wins last year came against Sacred Heart, UMass and Rice. Jim Mora’s team should be better this year. But not that much better that it can beat even a mid- to low-level ACC opponent.

Week 9 at Stanford (L)

Wake’s secondary will have its hands full trying to contain the Cardinal’s Elic Ayomanor. Especially with heavy legs after sitting on a plane for 5 hours on the flight to California.

Week 10: Open

Week 11: vs. Cal (W)

This time it’s the Bears doing the traveling. That turns the disadvantage of the Stanford trip into an advantage against the ACC’s other California team.

Week 12: vs. North Carolina (L)

The Deacons and Tar Heels have been known to put up big offensive numbers when they get together on the football field. The average scores of the past 3 games between the in-state rivals, all won by the Tar Heels, has been 51-47. Neither offense is as potent as usual. So the score will be lower this time. But because UNC still has more weapons, the result will be familiar.

Week 13: at Miami (L)

The teams haven’t met since 2013. But when they have played, the Hurricanes have dominated the series. Miami is 5-0 against the Deacons since joining the ACC in 2004.

Week 14: vs. Duke (L)

There have been years in which this showdown has determined which team would win a game that season and which one wouldn’t. This time the stakes are higher. Winner goes to the postseason. Loser stays home, unless there aren’t enough 6-teams to fill the bowl lineup. Duke transfer QB Maalik Murphy is a difference-maker.

2024 projection: 5-7 (2-6)

#GoDeacs

Wake Forest’s 7-year bowl streak ended last year after posting its first losing record in a non-COVID season since 2015. As detailed above, a large portion of the misfortune can be chalked up to some spotty quarterback and o-line play.

But those might only be symptoms of a bigger problem. One that could potentially be too big for even a coach as successful as Clawson to solve at a school the size of Wake Forest in the transfer portal and NIL era.

Clawson is as committed as ever to a philosophy that has helped him build a successful program despite the challenges inherent at the smallest school in the FBS. Only time will tell if the addition of a veteran quarterback, the return from injury of top receiver Donavon Greene, and several other minor tweaks will be enough to get the Deacons back on the winning track.

Or if the Wake Forest Way is no longer the way to go.