First, a quick disclaimer.

The assignment given to me is to give you five good reasons why LSU will beat Alabama.

“Will” is such a strong word, one I never like to use. But that’s the task at hand, so I’m game. Honestly, my preferred approach would be like this: Do I think LSU has a chance? Yes I do. Do I think it’s a good chance? At home, it certainly is.

Will I go so far as to say it “will” happen?

That’s crazy talk. We’re talking Nick Saban here. Never bet against him.

That said, here’s why Saban and the Tide are going to lose (he said with conviction):

Because LSU is healthy and ready

One of the odd narratives about the 2015 LSU season was that things went off the rails not when Brandon Harris lost his confidence or when Les Miles lost his play-calling mind, but when the fullback and the tight end got injured.

“Say what?” you ask. “Who even uses those positions in this post-modern, spread ’em out era?”

LSU, that’s who. Les Miles, that’s who. And the Tigers’ identity going into the year was to have this massive offensive line with a 280-pound tight end in Dillon Gordon and a road grader of a fullback in John David Moore.

LSU didn’t have those players anymore by the Alabama game (Moore did try to play but had to leave after a couple of plays because his torn ACL in his knee wasn’t cooperating) and, as a result, the Crimson Tide defensive line surged through LSU’s offensive front at will en route to holding Leonard Fournette to 31 yards on 19 carries.

That, in all honesty, is the straight-faced story you get from a lot of folks around LSU.

This year, Moore’s healthy and Gordon’s career is over. But that’s not the point. Here’s what is.

What the Tigers’ identity has evolved into under Ed Orgeron is one of a balanced offense based on spreading defenses with formations that widen the field, a quarterback who distributes the ball to all the skill players to keep the defenses spread out and running backs, led by Fournette, who can take advantage of the seams this creates.

And all those pieces — quarterback Danny Etling, Fournette, the offensive line, all the receivers and tight ends — are healthy and ready to make an impact, unlike last year.

Dave Aranda

Maybe I don’t like making bold predictions, but I’ll make this bold observation: There isn’t a better defensive coordinator in college football than Dave Aranda.

He proved it at Wisconsin, where the Badgers consistently produced tremendous results with mostly three-star talent. And he’s proving it at LSU with the same personnel Kevin Steele couldn’t mold into an effective unit last year.

That may read like I’m throwing Steele under the bus, but really, the opposite is true. Steele is doing wonderful things at Auburn, yet he couldn’t get this same group of LSU defenders to perform the way Aranda has them playing. It’s not about how bad Steele was because he’s proving this year he’s worth his salt. It’s about how good Aranda is.

LSU is sound. The Tigers hit you in the mouth. And nobody makes adjustments as a game goes on better than Aranda. And having a defense that good can have an impact on a certain player …

A freshman in Tiger Stadium

I, like anybody else who doesn’t explicitly hate Alabama, am a fan of Jalen Hurts.

What’s not to love?

Anybody who can make a talent like Blake Barnett up and leave for greener pastures (will Barnett be throwing passes to Jalen Hurd somewhere next year?) has to be pretty good. Anybody who can make Saban commit to the spread offense as much as he has this season has to be pretty good.

But let’s face it. He’s a true freshman.

And he’s done well as a frontrunner, but Tiger Stadium isn’t a place visitors go expecting to be frontrunners.

This is Aranda’s LSU defense, the best Hurts has seen and maybe as good of a defense that he will see until he starts collecting NFL paychecks. And this is Tiger Stadium after dark.

In front of the LSU crowd with more talent on the other side of the ball than he’s used to seeing, we’re going to find out just how mature Hurts is.

Ed Orgeron will have the Tigers too confident to soil itself

I brought up what, to me, is still the most amazing statistic in college football this season with an old friend who coached college football for decades.

“How is it even possible to score 12 non-offensive touchdowns?” I asked.

“Because the other teams keep (*bleep*)ing down their pant legs,” he said, in all seriousness. “That’s part of it. You play the best team in the country, and you’re 19. You panic and next thing you know, you can’t hold down your Wheaties, much less hold on to the football.”

And he has a point. Certainly Eddie Jackson made some remarkable plays on punt returns and interception returns. Certainly, Alabama is great at creating turnovers. But look back at the highlights and you’ll see many a play where Alabama’s opponent simply screws up, and the Tide, being so full of stud athletes, is picking up a loose ball and running it back the other way.

Playing at home and knowing it has the athletes to match up, LSU shouldn’t be nearly as intimidated as the typical LSU foe.

It’s easy to keep Hurts confident when the defense is spotting him a touchdown-and-half a game. What happens if the Tigers don’t gift wrap anything to the Tide? Does Alabama even remember what it’s like to have to rely on offense for all the points?

Because Donald Trump is surging in the polls

Can LSU win because James Comey re-opened the Hillary Clinton email investigation?

Comey’s investigation has certainly led to a surge in the polls for Republican Donald Trump in the final days leading up to next week’s presidential election.

And history tells us when LSU beats Alabama, Republicans win the White House.

So with Trump closing the poll gap, maybe that means Leonard Fournette is starting to get lathered up. Maybe it means the Saban curse is about to end.

Because when the big crimson elephant loses, the big red (state) elephant wins.