Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues with LSU.

They say hangovers are rough.

Personally, I don’t know. I’ve never experienced one, so I can’t speak on that.

(Do you think my bosses bought that?)

LSU, however, has experienced a title hangover. And unlike the post bachelor/bachelorette hangover that lasts 3 days, LSU’s hangover was an entire season. The Tigers had opt-outs, transfers, bad assistant hires, a Title IX scandal and atypically poor football overall. It was, in every way, a lost season. Just like how that hungover day isn’t a productive one, LSU’s year was, too.

That’s all in the past, though. A 2-game winning streak with a pair of miraculous finishes turned what could’ve been a 3-7 season into a 5-5 season with offseason momentum. Now, the question is whether LSU can get back to its SEC West-title contending ways and get to a New Year’s 6 bowl or even the Playoff.

Some are questioning if Ed Orgeron is the long-term fit in Baton Rouge. Another hangover season and who knows if Scott Woodward would pull the plug on the Orgeron era 2 years removed from a national title.

What we do know is that last season is in the past. It’s not gonna take long to determine whether LSU is out of its 2020 haze.

Ed Orgeron’s coordinator overhaul

Orgeron was pretty blunt about his hiring missteps. He admitted he needed to be more involved in the process and that he needed to actually interview potential assistants in person.

Yep, I’d agree that the second-highest paid head coach in college football should probably be pretty dialed into that. Perhaps that was part of the reason his 2020 hires flamed out.

I think my single worst take of 2020 was that Bo Pelini would work at LSU. We mustn’t ever forget that LSU had Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks at cornerback, yet it finished with the single worst pass defense in America. That’s so baffling it’s almost impressive.

Now with new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones, the thinking is that LSU is getting back to a simpler defense that won’t collapse when a receiver runs in motion. What a concept. Jones has no shortage of guys who can cover — Clemson transfer Mike Jones is also exceptional in that area — as long as it doesn’t shoot itself in the foot with missed assignments. It won’t matter that Jones wasn’t the first or second choice to replace Pelini and his $2.3 million salary. If Jones fuels a drastic defensive improvement, he’ll be a popular man.

On the offensive side, Steve Ensminger wasn’t considered the problem. Passing game coordinator Scott Linehan was seen as the wrong fit in his lone season at LSU as the Joe Brady replacement. Linehan was fired and Ensminger retired, which gave way for Brady disciple Jake Peetz. Can he get LSU’s offense back to that ridiculously productive 2019 level? Probably not. He does, however, seem like a nice fit for new starter Max Johnson.

Speaking of Johnson …

Can Max Johnson become a star?

Yes, yes he can. With the things that Johnson did well as a true freshman — have an excellent pocket presence, push the ball downfield, scramble to pick up first downs, etc. — one would think he has All-SEC potential. Shoot, so did a healthy Myles Brennan. Now that Brennan is out with a broken arm, there isn’t any debate. It’s Johnson’s team.

There’s been a lot of talk about Johnson being an ideal fit to execute the RPOs that Peetz wants to run. Even though Johnson really didn’t do that often last year, his mobility and decision-making do project nicely. It helps that he has a legit WR1 in Kayshon Boutte, who took off with Johnson as the starter at the end of last year.

What can hold Johnson back is if LSU repeats the running game woes that surfaced throughout 2020. If that area doesn’t improve, not having that balance could be costly against some of those better defenses. This can’t all fall on Johnson to throw 40 times a game. Even Florida, which had the No. 1 passing offense in America with breakout star Kyle Trask last year, would’ve preferred to have more balance with the ground attack.

Johnson is in a nice spot to take off as a first-time starter. If he fuels LSU’s comeback season, nobody should be surprised.

Derek Stingley’s potential for a Jabrill Peppers/Charles Woodson year

I put both former Michigan Swiss Army Knives in that comp because I think as much as everyone will want to liken Stingley to Woodson, Peppers might be a bit more accurate. At least in terms of impact. Stingley isn’t lining up at tailback and taking on linebackers like the bigger Peppers did 5 years ago.

Go back to 2016, though. Peppers had 29 offensive touches (27 rushes and 2 catches) for 169 yards and 3 offensive touchdowns, plus he returned both kicks and punts for Michigan. Was he a game-changer offensively? Not really, though he had his moments. It was more that Peppers was able to contribute in that way, and that year, it was a fun thing to follow as the former 5-star recruit blossomed into one of the stars of the sport. He earned a Heisman invite that year in part because of plays like this:

That seems possible for Stingley, who is apparently going to get some reps on offense, health permitting. Stingley’s push for a Heisman Trophy doesn’t just depend on whether he can make an impact on offense, of course. Above all else has to return to his 2019 form as a lockdown corner.

But Stingley was an electric high school receiver. Can he make a handful of those plays to generate some buzz about a defensive player winning the Heisman for the first time this century? It’s possible, especially a year removed from DeVonta Smith becoming the first receiver to win the Heisman this century thanks to some voter creativity.

Am I banking on Stingley averaging 21 yards a catch like Woodson did in his Heisman season? Nah. And if he plays receiver, Stingley will be better than Peppers’ 6 yards per scrimmage touch. LSU isn’t about to turn Stingley into Champ Bailey the receiver, either.

Even though I think Stingley would be wise to focus all his efforts on refining his cover/return craft in his pre-draft season, we’d all be on the edge of our seats if we saw him get an offensive touch.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at UCLA (W)

Yeah, I’m a little worried about LSU traveling West and playing on a Sunday night against a UCLA team that ranks No. 1 among Power 5 teams in percentage of returning production. That has 2017 A&M vibes, and we know how that turned out. If Orgeron drops the opener, get ready for the Kevin Sumlin comparisons. But against a solid Bruins squad, I think Johnson’s poise and a recharged LSU ground game steals the show in LaLa Land.

Week 2: vs. McNeese (W)

An Orgeron vs. Orgeron showdown! Orgeron’s son, Cody, is McNeese’s starting quarterback. And he’s pretty good, too. He’s a 2-year starter with 4,594 career passing yards. Is he good enough to walk into Death Valley and lead an FCS team to a victory? No, but we’ll have a fun Week 2 storyline for an otherwise meaningless game.

Week 3: vs. Central Michigan (W)

Return of the Mac! Whenever Jim McElwain plays against the SEC, those 4 words must be said. Or rather, they must be sung.

At the very least, they must be on our ’90s headphones on full blast:

McElwain went 1-2 against LSU when he was at Florida. Something tells me even though his team ranks No. 7 in FBS in percentage of returning production, the deck is stacked against him.

Week 4: at MSU (L)

Shades of 2020? Not quite. I’ve been saying all offseason that I think the 2021 SEC West has a very 2014-like feel to it. That is, upsets galore. That includes this one, but it won’t have the feel of last year’s shootout. MSU might not break 30 against a much-improved LSU defense. But this ends up being a game in which LSU fans really wish they had lured Zach Arnett from MSU. That’s not a slight at Jones, but Arnett’s defense confuses Johnson and LSU becomes a bit too one-dimensional on the road. MSU wins the turnover battle and spoils LSU’s SEC opener once again.

Week 5: vs. Auburn (W)

You had me at “Bo Nix on the road.”

Week 6: at Kentucky (W)

I hate the timing of this for LSU sandwiched between a pair of rivalry games. Kentucky isn’t going to be a cakewalk, especially if that front 7 can develop. So why no upset? Well, I think the Cats lack the receiver options needed to really make Liam Coen’s offense take off in the first part of SEC play. The Tigers shake off a slow start, but Mike Jones and Ricks force turnovers to fuel a hard-fought road victory.

Week 7: vs. Florida (L)

Wait a minute. Didn’t LSU go into The Swamp and beat a Playoff-hopeful Florida team? Yes, and Marco Wilson’s shoe toss into the fog was as an infamous a moment as we’ve had in college football in recent memory (Elijah Moore’s celebration might be the only thing that holds a candle to it). Assuming Todd Grantham doesn’t insist on sending corner blitzes at Johnson again, I think the Florida defense has a big showing in Death Valley. Emory Jones picks up his first signature victory and the Gators keep their East hopes alive while LSU’s West chances take a massive hit.

Week 8: at Ole Miss (W)

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that John Emery has a career day in Oxford. Whether that’s busting loose for big runs or catching passes out of the backfield in Peetz’s offense, I think Emery does his best Clyde Edwards-Helaire imitation. Ali Gaye and BJ Ojulari tag team a dominant effort from the LSU edge-rushers and the prolific Ole Miss offense struggles to string scoring drives together in the second half.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: at Alabama (L)

On one hand, DeVonta Smith is gone, so we can’t do the thing where we wonder if Stingley is overrated because an all-world receiver got the better of him. But while I think Stingley and the LSU defense will improve in the post-Pelini era — that’s not saying much at all — I think this is where we see Bill O’Brien’s brilliance. In an effort to avoid Stingley and Ricks, this winds up being a huge Jahleel Billingsley/Cameron Latu game. LSU will put up a better fight, and Johnson will have some moments. But an Alabama team coming into its own offensively has more moments and keeps its SEC West title hopes alive.

Week 11: vs. Arkansas (W)

Let’s call this “the Brian Thomas game.” Much like Boutte when he broke out down the stretch last year, Thomas’ monster game happens late in the year. Against a Razorbacks team that struggles to generate pressure on Johnson, the talented true freshman wideout goes off. Johnson and Thomas form an unstoppable connection with 3 scores to lead an LSU victory.

Week 12: vs. UL-Monroe (W)

The Garrett Nussmeier hype train might pick up a little speed. It’ll be fun to talk about Terry Bowden and someone will inevitably bring up that time when Rich Rodriguez (UL-Monroe’s new offensive coordinator) led an Ole Miss offense that ran for a million yards against LSU in 2019. But the storylines will be more fun than the competitiveness in this one.

Week 13: vs. Texas A&M (W)

So here’s the crazy thing — I have LSU playing spoiler on A&M’s West chances. With a potential New Year’s 6 bid up for grabs, the Tigers play fast and loose, much like they did last year when they spoiled Florida’s Playoff chances. Instead of needing a thrown shoe to close it out, the Tigers turn to their star. Boutte saves his best for last once again in what turns out to be a huge day from the LSU sophomore. A&M struggles to find an answer for Boutte, who scores a pair of second-half touchdowns to close out the regular season with a bang.

2021 projection: 9-3 (5-3), 3rd in SEC West

#GoTigers

You could look at this projection in two ways. You can get caught up in the fact that I have LSU losing 2 rivalry games, as well as an upset loss to MSU. On the surface, getting that second loss before Alabama would be a brutal development for Orgeron. The hot seat talk could ramp up before that if the MSU loss happens.

But LSU fans, let me paint you a picture. You just watched your team nearly go 3-7. Yeah, 5-5 happened. You could have a 4-win improvement in a season that isn’t filled with embarrassment. You can establish your quarterback of the future and watch an offense that doesn’t have the same ceiling as those pre-2019 teams. You can get back to arguing about which bowl game your team deserves instead of praying for the season to end.

Those would all be wins. Major wins.

If this plays out, it would take off-the-field heat to fire Orgeron. Going 9-3 and hanging tough in the best division in America is nothing to scoff at. We could still be talking about a 10th win up for grabs in a New Year’s 6 bowl with Johnson, Boutte and a host of others expected to return in 2022.

Life could be so much worse, LSU fans. And if you don’t believe that, revert back to your hungover state.