Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Purdue (Music City Bowl)

It has been a long season, and the Fearless Prediction Department has no plans to enter the 8-month hiatus on a down note. On Thursday afternoon, the Tennessee Volunteers finish the 2021 campaign against Purdue in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. Nothing says college football like TransPerfect, which Google tells me is a “translation, E-Discovery and language services company based in New York City.”

There is some history for both teams in this bowl game. Back in 2010, the Vols lost in double overtime to North Carolina. A wild sequence at the end of regulation cost UT a victory and would lead to the establishment of the 10-second runoff rule. In 2016, the Vols beat Nebraska, but that game followed a season in which Tennessee failed to live up to expectations. Purdue would like to forget its appearance in the 2018 Music City Bowl, a blowout loss to Auburn.

This game also means the Vols will match up against Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm. That name brings back memories of Tennessee’s crazy coaching search of 2017. For a couple of hours, it looked like Brohm would be the next Vols coach, but those reports were false. After the game, I hope Brohm holds a fireside chat to explain exactly how close he came to being at UT.

Purdue will be without its top 2 players, as wide receiver David Bell and defensive end George Karlaftis opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Both players are All-Americans who will likely be picked in the 1st couple of rounds, so their decision to not risk injury playing in this exhibition is understandable.

Tennessee won’t have defensive back Alontae Taylor for the same reason. Taylor is projected as a final-day Draft pick.

Purdue’s resume is pretty good. The Boilermakers went 8-4 this season, with wins over Iowa and Michigan State back when those teams were ranked in the AP top 3. They were destroyed at Ohio State, but they otherwise won every game or were competitive into the 4th quarter.

The Boilermakers’ offense is led by 5th-year senior quarterback Aidan O’Connell. Purdue’s strength is throwing the football, averaging a whopping 340 yards a game through the air. But a lot of that was with Bell, who caught 93 passes for 1,286 yards this season. His absence will mean more chances for Milton Wright, Jackson Anthrop and Payne Durham, who each caught at least 40 passes in 2021.

Purdue is fairly 1-dimensional, rushing for fewer than 84 yards per game. Only 3 teams in the country rushed for fewer yards in 2021. Their leading rusher, King Doerue, picks up fewer than 4 yards per carry.

The Vols’ offense is much more balanced, with 247 yards passing and 212 yards rushing per game. Quarterback Hendon Hooker was the biggest reason why Tennessee scored nearly 39 points per game, 8th best in the country. Cedric Tillman and Velus Jones Jr. were Hooker’s main targets, with a combined 109 receptions.

Defensively, the Boilermakers surely will miss Karlaftis and his team-leading 10 tackles for loss. But senior linebacker Jaylan Alexander will play after collecting 94 tackles this year.

Tennessee linebacker Jeremy Banks was snubbed as an all-SEC selection, but his team-leading 108 tackles shouldn’t be overlooked.

Bowl games are always tricky to predict. Which team is motivated, and which just wants to go back home? The Vols will have a sizeable home-field advantage, as this game will be played in Nashville, so that should give them a boost.

This has been an unexpectedly successful season for the Vols. They have a chance at an 8th victory, something that has been done only once at Tennessee since 2016. With an 8th win, Josh Heupel will have the most victories for a Vols 1st-year head coach since Phillip Fulmer in 1993.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 48, Purdue 34