Ad Disclosure
A preview and prediction for the ACC’s 2 opening-round College Football Playoff games
Published:
You know what they say about rivalry games. You can throw out the records.
But what happens when there aren’t any records to throw out?
That’s where we are heading into the first opening round of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Sure, we’ve seen Playoff football before.
But not like this.
Four opening-round matchups instead of just 2 semifinals. Games played at campus venues, 3 of them in cold-weather locations with a chance of snow in the forecast, instead of indoor or warm-weather neutral sites. Brand-name programs vs. plucky underdogs.
There’s no telling whether home-field advantage will become even more of an advantage because of conditions. Or if playing at home will only increase the pressure on the favorites to hold serve and move on.
We’ll find out soon enough with both ACC teams playing on the road Saturday. No. 11 SMU is at No. 6 Penn State while 12th-seeded conference champion Clemson is at No. 5 Texas.
Because we’re sailing into uncharted waters, with no history to serve as a guide, handicapping those games can be tricky.
But let’s take a stab at it anyway.
(Betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.)
SMU (+9.0) at Penn State
Saturday, noon ET, TNT/Max
This is one of those blue-blood vs. upstart matchups. But while Penn State is a college football behemoth with a championship pedigree and SMU is a recent Group of 5 graduate getting its first taste of national exposure, the dynamic between the teams on the field is anything but a David vs. Goliath proposition.
Both are 11-2, and their statistical profiles are remarkably similar. What sets them apart is how they go about their business and how they arrived here. That contrast will go a long way toward determining which team advances to a quarterfinal date in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State.
The Nittany Lions are a prototype Big Ten team. Big. Physical. Built around a dominant defense and a strong ground game.
The Mustangs are quick and athletic, with an aggressive up-tempo personality embodied by quarterback Kevin Jennings – a dual-threat playmaker who has thrown for more than 3,000 yards and rushed for 300 more despite not taking over as the full-time starter until the season’s 4th game.
With Jennings and 1,200-yard rusher Brashard Smith doing most of the heavy lifting, SMU has accounted for 72 plays of 20 yards or more this season. They might find the going much tougher in Happy Valley, however, because of the conditions and a Penn State defense that ranks among the FBS leaders at only 4.6 yards allowed per play.
Defensively, SMU’s key will be putting pressure on quarterback Drew Allar. That should be right in the Mustangs’ wheelhouse. Their 154 quarterback pressures are the most in the FBS and their 40 sacks are tied for the most in the ACC. But they do it with only a minimum of blitzing, which will put pressure on ends Jahfari Harvey and Isaiah Smith – both of whom have accounted for 6.5 or more sacks – to get into the backfield against the biggest, most physical offensive line they’ve faced.
An effective pass rush is a must to help support a secondary that was burned for 4 touchdowns in the ACC title game against Clemson and has allowed 627 yards to opposing tight ends this season. A dangerous proposition against a team with the best tight end in the country, Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren.
SMU has already accomplished a lot just by getting this far in its first ACC season. While that doesn’t necessarily put the Mustangs in a “just happy to be here” mode, they have a lot less to lose than a Penn State team with a history of coming up small in big spots. That’s likely to weigh heavily on the Nittany Lions, especially if they fall behind early.
Prediction: SMU 27, Penn State 24
Clemson (+12.0) at Texas
Saturday, 4 pm ET, TNT/Max
The Tigers are making their 7th Playoff appearance. Only Alabama (8) has made the Playoff more often since the event began in 2014. Clemson has won 2 Playoff championships, tied with Georgia for 2nd. (Alabama has won the Playoff 3 times.)
This, however, is anything but a classic Clemson team. It did win its 8th ACC championship in the past 10 years to earn the league’s automatic bid. But it needed help from Syracuse, which beat Miami in the final week of the regular season, just to get into the title game and earn its Playoff opportunity.
And because it’s been 4 years since the Tigers’ most recent Playoff appearance, only coach Dabo Swinney and a few staff members have experience in a game of this magnitude.
Based on previous results, the matchup against Texas isn’t exactly a favorable one for Clemson. Two of its 3 losses were against SEC opponents, Georgia in Week 1 and South Carolina in the regular-season finale. The Tigers managed only 17 points combined in the 2 games while averaging 92 yards on the ground – 88 fewer than their normal season production.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that they might not have to score many points to hang with the Longhorns, who have struggled offensively recently. Steve Sarkisian’s team has scored more than 20 points only once in its past 4 games. That includes their SEC Championship Game loss to Georgia 2 weeks ago.
Although running the ball and scoring touchdowns rather than settling for field goals in the red zone will be important, especially since both teams have had problems doing both at times this season, the outcome will likely come down to quarterback play.
Cade Klubnik is Clemson’s catalyst with both his arm and his legs. As he goes, so go the Tigers. While he’s thrown for a career-high 33 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions, only 1 of those touchdown passes and 2 of the picks came in his team’s 3 losses.
Texas’ Quinn Ewers has been just as up-and-down. He started strong but has struggled of late, including a 2-interception performance against UGA. That could be a problem against a Clemson defense that has recorded 15 interceptions and is in the top 5 nationally in turnover margin. Sarkisian, however, has an ace in the hole he can play in prized backup Arch Manning should Ewers continue to struggle.
Whoever ends up under center, patience will be the key for Texas. While the Tigers have outscored their opponents by 115 points in the first quarter this season – the biggest margin of any FBS team – they’ve had a habit of running out of gas late. They got away with it, barely, against SMU in Charlotte. Doing it against the Longhorns in Austin won’t end as well.
Prediction: Texas 27, Clemson 10.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
