5 bold predictions for Alabama vs. Tennessee
So here we are: No. 1 Alabama at No. 9 Tennessee. The most anticipated game of the year, and it more or less lives up to the hype. The likely West winner and the likely East winner meet in the most competitive-looking edition of this rivalry in many years.
The winner has a leg up in the race for the college football Final Four, and the loser … well, the loser will be hoping for a rematch in early December.
What should we expect? Settle in, let us put on the prognostication hat, and make a few guesses about the biggest game of the season.
1. Joshua Dobbs will outrush Jalen Hurts, but Bama will sack Dobbs several times: Both QBs in this game can be a defensive nightmare. Drop everybody back, take away the big pass, and they’ll pull the ball down and beat you with the run. Tennessee will probably scheme to keep Hurts in the pocket, whereas Dobbs will be running for his life from the Alabama pass rush.
This will help Alabama make some big plays in the pass rush, but sometimes Dobbs will break contain and make some big rushing plays. Thus the prediction.
2. Tennessee will at least open by playing close to the vest: Jalen Hurd is apparently back, Alvin Kamara is coming off his best game as a Vol, and Dobbs is always a threat on the ground or air, so it won’t be surprising if Tennessee tries to establish the run, drain the clock, and wrestle control of the game away from Alabama’s stable of running backs and mammoth linemen.
Honestly, this is probably Tennessee’s best bet against a talented foe anyway. The Vols’ ground game has been fairly disappointing in 2016, and if it’s ever going to get turned around, Saturday afternoon is as good of a time as any.
3. Damien Harris will be the best back in this game: Lost in the talk about Kamara’s big game and Hurd returning to health is the fact that Damien Harris is the home run hitter in this game. When Harris has been healthy, he’s been one of the most effective backs in the SEC. Considering that Tennessee is allowing more yards per carry than they gain, there’s no reason to expect that to change. Jacobs and Scarbrough could be significant, but for our money, give us Harris to have a monster game.
4. Play-action will be big for Bama: Unlike Tennessee, Bama has gashed opponents for 5.7 yards per carry, and will run well enough to allow Hurts to sell the play fake and hit big passes down the seam of the defense.
This will in turn soften up the defense and allow Harris and Scarbrough to make big plays late in the game. But if you asked me for one play that will change the game, it’d be a third quarter play-action deep ball to Calvin Ridley. Is that specific enough to be bold?
5. Tennessee will lead at halftime, but Alabama will win by two scores: On this game, we’re flipping the script. Tennessee had been pitiful in first quarters this season, but with their season on the line, the Vols will give a good early effort and will take a halftime lead. In the second half, Alabama will pour it on, and the Tide’s depth will down the Vols late.
Alabama wins by two scores, and Tennessee will see them again in Atlanta. The streak will be 10 going on 11.