Will the same problem that cost Alabama a title in 2016 rear its ugly head in 2018?
I remember watching the end of the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship and having a couple of thoughts.
One of which was that Deshaun Watson was some kind of player to put up that kind of fight against the Alabama defense twice.
The other was that the Alabama defense looked like it ran out of gas.
The latter was a long time coming after the Tide rolled through the entire 2016 season like one of the most dominant teams we’d ever seen. Alabama was an absurd +387 on the season, including a +186 mark in SEC play (that’s an average margin of victory of 23 points). As a result, the Tide played in just 2 games that were decided by 2 possessions or less before the national championship.
I’m starting to wonder if it’ll be even less in 2018. After all, Alabama is already +206 in 5 games (40.2 points per game margin of victory) and +77 in 2 SEC games.
Shoot, Tua Tagovailoa might become the first Heisman Trophy candidate not to throw a fourth-quarter pass until November. That’s a perfectly realistic possibility with the Tide’s upcoming slate.
But it’s not Tagovailoa or the offense that I question having enough legs left to play in the fourth quarter (it’s easy to forget that Jalen Hurts led a touchdown drive the last time he was on the field in that 2016 title game).
The question worth asking is whether Alabama’s dominant ways will lead to a defense that’s unfamiliar with playing a full 60 minutes like it was in 2016.

Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
The identities of those teams are obviously much, much different. While Alabama was solid as a passing offense in Hurts’ freshman year — he did have 2,780 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns — it was still nowhere near the high-octane offense it is in 2018 with Tagovailoa.
As a result, Alabama is putting teams away earlier than ever. In the first half in 2016, Alabama outscored teams 302-99. That’s an average halftime lead of 13.5 points. This year, Alabama outscored teams 197-20 in the first half. That’s an average lead of a 35.4 points heading into the break.
Nick Saban can preach the “treat every play like the game is on the line” all he wants, but the reality is, his first-string defense might not really have to play like that very often this year.
There’s two sides of the coin. In what could wind up being a 15-game season, the luxury of not having the same wear and tear of other teams is beneficial. If Alabama is relatively healthy when the postseason rolls around, we’ll circle back to that first-half efficiency as a reason that’s the case.
The other side of it is the conditioning aspect. There’s nothing that can truly simulate the physical stamina of playing 60 minutes with Clemson. Well, maybe except for playing 60 minutes against LSU.
That’s the game that’s circled on everyone’s calendar. Everyone expects Alabama to roll its October opponents (Arkansas, Mizzou and Tennessee) to set up that showdown with the Tigers. Even if both teams continue playing at their current pace, Alabama would probably still be a double-digit road favorite.
Does anything we’ve seen so far in 2018 suggest that anyone on the Tide’s remaining schedule can last 60 minutes? That’s especially true for Auburn and Mississippi State, both of whom have been disappointing offensively.
It took the perfect storm for that 2016 Alabama team to finally lose. It took a team that wasn’t intimated, was on the same level athletically and had a special quarterback. We don’t know if there’s a team that has all 3 of those things yet. There are elite teams with special quarterbacks like Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma, and they certainly aren’t lacking athletes across the board.
But as we found out in 2016, all it took was one team to go down to the wire and knock Alabama off its pedestal. It’s still too early to know if that team is out there.
And no, that’s not my way of saying “I’d feel a lot better about Alabama’s title chances if the Tide stopped destroying teams.” That’s a ridiculous thought. You can never be “too good.” It’s just one of the very few drawbacks of being too good in college football.
A little adversity isn’t the worst thing for a team. It can have major long-term benefits that prevent 18-22-year-old kids from panicking in the biggest game of their lives.
And I’m not talking about a secondary allowing a touchdown on the first play of the game like it did against Ole Miss. I’m talking about an Alabama secondary, which replaced its top 6 players from last year, having to come up with perfect coverage on 3rd-and-12 in a 1-score game in the fourth quarter. I don’t think Saban would mind seeing what that unit is made of. Shoot, I think we all would.
As dominant as Alabama has been, we don’t know if this kind of pace can be sustained. This is still the best division in America and this is still a 15-game season (unless you’re 2017 Alabama). Maybe history will repeat itself and the 2016 narrative will play out again.
Or maybe this time, Alabama is an unstoppable freight train that won’t slow down until it reaches its final destination.
I don’t see 2016 here. Is Bama going to fire their OC? Is the stud RB going to get injured during the game? The offense couldn’t stay on the field by converting third downs and the defense got worn down. Watson isn’t coming back to college. I’m not saying Bama is unbeatable, but this isn’t the same team or the same circumstances.
What happened in that game was Kiffin was gone and Jalen couldn’t stay on the field. Simple as that. Clemson got extremely lucky Lane wasn’t there. That 2016 team was probably one of the greatest teams of all time. Just unfortunate circumstances behind the scenes.
same thing happen to us what if javon wims never went out? or what if the false start would have been called against bama on that 4th down that calvin (my boi only because he a falcon) scored that td? f all the trump supporters and all the B10 ref supporters and also Bamatime because hes a scrub and a “low life”.
And how exactly are you relating Trump supporters to the NCG?
He ran out of food stamps, give him time to grieve.
so you defending trump Cheetos dust face ahz? and just making a statement and bringing my problems with trump to a SEC football to a random article thats all.
ar-kansas_vol…. u a trump supporter? F kavanaugh too.
I support my president regardless of who it is, it’s in hopes that he is doing his job with our country, our people, and our freedom as his top priorities. I’m not doing politics with a high school dropout as the recipient of my debate.
lol so u like Obama 2?
Why on earth would you cuss out a man who hasn’t been charged with anything?
This is a sports forum, otherwise known as the place we go to get away from the irrational hate that permeates politics. Please keep it that way and go away.
wym Kirby? talkin’ bout Cheetos dust face trump?
No, you said “f Kavanaugh”.
oh yea. He a h*e for r*ping a girl drunk like wth bruh! but ig u gonna support sexual assault to just like most republicans.
Where’s your evidence that he raped a girl while he/she were drunk?
Assault of any kind is pathetic. Personally, I think rape should receive something very close to the death penalty, but don’t report me for that.
So you calln her a liar? shes credible for the most part. And mark judge even said hes seen him “quite drunk” put 2 and 2 together and you get a very creditable accusation.
She has changed the date for the assault 3 times (early 1980s, 1980s, and summer 1982) and can’t even remember a specific day or location. None of the eyewitnesses she has named can remember any such incident. Within a few days of the accusations, 65 women who knew Kavanaugh personally said they had never heard of any such incident and that Kavanaugh, according to their own personal experiences, never EVER showed any tendencies of that kind of behavior.
The prosecutor Rachel Mitchell said “a ‘he said-she said’ case is extremely difficult to prove. But this case is even weaker than that.”
If the attack happened when she was in her “late” teens, Kavanaugh was 300 miles away as a full-time student at Yale.
You really believe a man who was admitted and graduated from Yale University and has a “highest quality” (AKA top-level) rating from the BAR assocation was a drunk groper in high school? I guess you really can be anything you want in America, even without the character and work.
Lol ok so you tellin me that when it has been years of putting it under a rug that you could remember a specific day of the wort day of your life and almost blacking out by having a hand around ur neck u would remember a date? we still dont even have all the facts but thats why oh great pharaoh trump ordered that investigation so when we get all the facts at the end of the week maybe one of us can go on hush mode about it.
The
Kirby. You presented a well thought out account of what is going on and I agree with you. It would be great if this site could be sports only but some will not allow it to be. There is one small area where I disagree. Being a graduate of Yale, Harvard, any Ivy League school, or any great university does not automatically mean character is present. Now, expel the troll.
Good point, redsox. However, it still requires stringent academic abilities and achievements, which are very hard to get if you’re getting stone-cold, blackout drunk every night.
And yes, little fly, I do expect her to remember it. If that happened to anyone, it’d be ingrained in their memory forever.
Even if she doesn’t remember the exact day, she doesn’t even remember the location? In an earlier discussion, she told someone that it was a group of boys. How convenient that the one guy she remembered just so happened to be in the nomination proccess for a crucial Supreme Court seat right before the midterm elections. Coincidence? Doubt it.
Besides, why wait so long? Why wait until the process is nearly over, and then chuck this grenade down the well? They had her letter for a while, why wait? Shouldn’t crimes be reported immediately? Answer me that, chump.
In a few Traumatizing event which goes to an extent of how bad some brain circulation had to been cut off while he was laughing and chocking her out at the same time she obviously cant remember everything. But thats where the FBI investigation comes in. And all the fox news you have been watching and not paying attention to what came out. is that she didn’t even want to be public she turned in a letter as you stated but politics takes its toll and next thing she knows is that shes in DC speaking of the horrible events that most certainly took place. Why would she lie mg? why?
1) Ford’s initial letter made no mentioning of choking. If she would have had no memory of the event due to blood loss to her brain (nice copy/paste job, BTW) then why does she remember it now?
2) I don’t even have cable, so I couldn’t watch Fox News even if I wanted to unless I YouTubed everything. Besides, cable news, in general, is boring.
3) I don’t know if she blatantly lied. I do know that what she is claiming has no evidence whatsoever to support it and that her account is hazy, permeated with inconsistencies, and would never even be able to press charges in a civil court.
1) nah I was just goin by her statement. she said it that he was chocking her while laughing.
2) What do u do with most of ur life then? you a lumberjack or something?
3)Thats why trump ordered the investigation. But as of now shes not a liar unless proven so.
So, not only are you a complete idiot, but your’e also a scumbag democrat.
Can’t say I’m surprised.
Get used to President Trump. He’ll be around for six more years, and there is nothing you can do about it.
lol republican at its finest. Trump is not gonna be president after this term. Matter of fact a republican wont be in office. Now lets argue. Come with some heat and explain to me how yall are so blind to the fact of how its ok for a president to grab a girls v*gina and also how he handled charlottesville. Im pretty sure I can see u in the crowd with the white supremacist.. macist=Racist SO hit mw with ur best shot. Dwayne “the rock” Johnson for 2020 president. and F kanye im sure you wish the 13th amendment was abolished aswell.
Scumbag Democrat? Is that where we’re at today? I can’t believe what I believe, even if it’s different than you, without being a scumbag? Step away from Fox News. As much as Trump supporters complain about the liberal media, they sure do allow themselves to be suckered in by the conservative media. All either wants to do is make an enemy of the other and distract is with petty fights. And it seems to be working. I’m by far and away the most liberal person in my family. Most of them are Trump supporters. We don’t name call and think the other is our enemy though. We know that each of us have different thoughts and beliefs when it comes to what we want to see in this country. We also know that we’re all Americans. Our ideals don’t have to line up for us to respect each other. Abraham Lincoln said, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” I fear he’s right and the division that is seen here proves it.
I’ll say it again: SCUMBAG DEMOCRAT
Barack Obama worked hard to divide this country, backing hate groups and demonizing police officers. It is the LEFT that continues to form mobs and commit crimes of vandalism and even assault. It is THE LEFT that is so determined to oppose President Trump that they big up some mentally unbalanced woman and have her given absurd and inconsistent testimony about events that allegedly occurred 36 years ago. Far and away the most liberal person in your family? That ought to tell you something. Seek help. Fast.
As for the dawg moron, are you so stupid as to think that Liberal Hero-President Bill “the impeached pervert” never did worse? His wife was actually worse than him. Her actions got brave men killed, as she valued pushing Obama’s political agenda over making sure that American personnel overseas were secure. Cory Booker is the likely democrat 2020 nominee. Might want to read up on him. He raped a 15 year old girl and wrote about the experience.
x, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
He sounds like Trump at any press conference or rally.
Not MAGA but MUGA come on you can do better yall will never be great again.
I hope you realize that MUGA makes zero sense… lol
lmao you should be telling yourself that.
You are literally too stupid to insult. At least you embarrass some other fanbase though.
I can understand your love of “YOUR” Dawgs. What I have trouble comprehending is why your wallowing in last year helps them this year. We lost that NC just like y’all lost yours last Jan. The weakness of the 16 team was the QB. His style of play was non productive against a real good defense. This year is different because we now have a QB that can spin a scoreboard like a pinball machine, but we also have a very good defense. I am suggesting that y’all maybe win the rest of your games and we will try to win ours, then we’ll see you in Atlanta and answer all of these questions for this year.
Is bama really good? Yes. Bama is always really good, this is no different than any other year. It usually takes a teams best effort to beat bama. They only play 2 maybe 3 games a year in the regular season they can actually lose. Am i a hater? Yes, but the talk about this team is getting out of hand. Bama hasn’t played a team ranked in the TOP 50 in any of the 2 main defensive categories, which is total defense and the most important one of all scoring defense. So call me crazy but who has bama played for people to seriously be having unbeatable conversations. I personally believe they’re the best team in the country every year until somebody beats them. We knew the schedule was awful before the season. So why crown them after playing this terrible schedule. Thats not how football works. Bama will eventually play a team that will punch them in mouth.
I get what you’re saying, I really do. But watch any of the Bama games that have been played so far. No matter who it is on the other sideline, the games have been over after the first quarter/quarter and a half. There has been zero doubt in any of the games. Yes, the schedule has been easy but look at any statistics or metrics and the Tide is utterly dominating in all of them.
Then look at other top teams: OU struggled against Army. LSU didnt dominate LA Tech or SE LA. Auburn looked awful against Southern Miss. Penn State went to OT against App State. Clemson struggled with GA Southern and Syracuse. Ohio State needed a come from behind win against TCU. I could go on.
Yes, the schedule will get tougher and some team will provide a legitimate challenge into the 4th quarter. So far, however, Alabama has been absolutely dominate. Who cares who they’ve played, its impressive considering other Top Tier teams have struggled against similar competition.
You’ll find out just how good Texas A&M is before long. Texas A&M has a very active and disruptive front that will shut Auburn’s mediocre run game down and overpower that sieve you call an offensive line on a regular basis.
Part of the reason those teams are not “in the TOP 50 in any [either] of the two main defensive categories” is because Bama hung 50 on all of them.
The defense looked like it ran out of gas because the offense couldn’t hold the ball long enough to give them any rest. Over, and over, and over, and over, with the B1G type c-ap.
Yeah. 2016 Alabama had literally no problems at all beyond Third & Jalen. The defense was immaculate.
/me points finger at Steve Sarikisian, who apparently wasn’t aware that Damien Harris was on the bench, ready to go after Bo went down in the championship game.
These folks don’t care about facts. They just want to rant and rave about how great their teams are. It has nothing to do with football. They are railing against irrelevancy. Football happens on the field each week and the rest of their week is spent blathering about how great they are. That’s why these article are written. It does beat having to work for a living. Feeding these fools railing against irrelevance creates their relevancy to the world. I just feel that watching the games and appreciating the teams ability should be enough, but sadly it isn’t.
I don’t know of any defense that plays over 90 plays in a game and not run out of gas. Bo go hurt and then the offense couldnt convert any first downs and the defense was basically on the field the entire 3rd and most of the 4th qtr.
Also, I will never worry about any players conditioning because “he doesnt play a 4th qtr.” There is a reason Scott Cochran is being paid so much.
In 2018, the offense scores so quickly that there are times when the defense gets no rest. While this is not a current problem, it could become one against better teams. Hope not.
If this defense can stop the opponent on over 50% of their possessions and we score on 60% of our possessions, then victory will happen. Tua is creating TD’s on close to 70% of possessions to this point. I don’t see this defense folding up their tents and allowing that kind of catch up. The only thing that has slowed Tua to this point has been Saban. When his need to win overpowers his need to “Appreciate Jalen” is when we find out if his greatness is for real.
I would like to address the writers and editors of this staff. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE to an article and compare the actual on field playing time of Jalen and Tua. Not their numbers, just actual playing time and then let us know who is actually our QB. Thank You!