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ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index (FPI) is calling for Alabama to win nine games this season. Is this too many or too little?
From a literal standpoint, nine wins is too few. However, bear in mind the FPI only considers regularly scheduled games, not bowl games or potential conference championships or College Football Playoff games. Even the top-rated team, Florida State, is given a predicted finish of 11 wins with one loss. Four of the last five national championship winners finished the season with one loss, so one loss given to the top team seems realistic.
The FPI doesn’t break down results game-by-game, only percentages. The figure is an estimation of the season’s results based on strength of schedule, margin of victory and other similar measures. Obviously, the measure is more predictive at the preseason juncture, while it develops greater accuracy as the season progresses.
The FPI states the obvious by giving Alabama a 90 percent or better chance of beating Western Kentucky, Kent State, Kentucky and Chattanooga. Chattanooga is rated as a 99 percent chance of a win, and the Mocs essentially present a great opportunity for Alabama’s younger players like B.J. Emmons to get more playing time if they haven’t gotten some already by Nov. 19.
The only game where the percentage might be high is Kentucky. The Wildcats did challenge Florida early in the season in a 14-9 loss. However, the odds of Alabama beating Kentucky before the home crowd of Bryant-Denny are still very good.
The odds of beating Mississippi State seem unreasonably high at 85 percent. Dan Mullen has a history of overachieving at a formerly moribund program. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Mississippi State outperform all expectations. Still, let’s be honest: an Alabama loss would be a huge upset.
Arkansas, Texas A&M and Auburn are all rated between 70-80 percent chance of a win. While the Auburn game is the Iron Bowl, the odds still favor Alabama. Alabama’s game with Arkansas is a road game, but the Razorbacks are inexperienced at key positions on offense.
A&M pulled off the road upset back in 2012 and the team has Trevor Knight, who has beaten Alabama in the past, so an upset is certainly possible. A lower figure in the 60s seems more likely, but Alabama is rightfully considered the favorite.
Meanwhile, USC is tagged at 64 percent, which actually seems a little low. Alabama head coach Nick Saban has consistently done well in preparing his teams for season openers against quality opponents. Over the last four years, Alabama defeated four Power 5 teams, generally in impressive fashion. The USC figure might be bumped up to 70.
That brings Alabama’s win total to nine. The odds are just 34 percent at LSU. These odds might be a tad low, although the odds should favor LSU. The game takes place on LSU’s home turf for starters. Also, the rivalry includes so many close wins by Alabama in recent years, so it seems LSU is due to win a close one.
LSU’s defense lost a bit of edge last season with the loss of long-time defensive coordinator John Chavis. However, Les Miles made a big-time hire in luring Dave Aranda away from Wisconsin to be the new defensive coordinator this season. Factor that in with the fact that Alabama struggles against teams with taller wide receivers — LSU has two NFL-caliber receivers standing 6-foot 2-inches or taller — and LSU looks like the toughest game of the season.
Alabama is given just a 41 percent chance on the road against Tennessee. Given the fact Tennessee is playing Alabama following a three-game slate that includes: a home game to perennial bully Florida, then a road game against Georgia and a contest in College Station before the deafening noise of Kyle Field, 41 percent seems low. A 50-50 seems fair when considering the close outcome of last season’s game.
The Ole Miss game gives Alabama a 51 percent chance of winning, basically a toss-up. Chalk it up as a loss according to the projected 9-3 finish. Another 50-50 seems fair since Ole Miss gave Alabama problems the past two years.
The Alabama FPI isn’t far off. Most projections show Alabama finishing anywhere from 11-1 to 8-4. In the middle is a fair projection: 10-2. The 9-3 estimation is a tad low, although not far from the mark.