Looking for the teams to reach the College Football Playoff is an ongoing exercise, and through Week 3, ESPN has updated its percentages for the teams most likely to make it.

No. 1 Clemson leads all teams with a 78 percent chance of making it, while No. 2 Alabama is not far behind at 75 percent. Ohio State sits at 43 percent, but the Notre Dame-Georgia game this week serves as a would-be quarterfinal matchup based on these numbers. The Fighting Irish and Bulldogs are tied each at 39 percent.

LSU, meanwhile, is lower than where it stands in most other polls. The Tigers stand at No. 7 with a 33 percent chance of making it, just below Oklahoma at 36 percent.

The surprise team? UCF is at 9 percent.

The first official rankings are released on Nov. 5, but until then, it’s difficult to get a feel for how teams from different areas of the country are represented in the committee’s mind. Does the committee want teams that will deliver high TV ratings? Will two teams from one conference make it? Does the committee want a balanced representation from around the country?