ESPN's FPI predicts Alabama's remaining games coming off the bye week
Alabama enjoyed a bye week Saturday. Obviously, the Tide didn’t take it easy; Nick Saban used it as a teaching moment for some of his younger players.
Week 6 saw Florida shock Auburn in The Swamp with dominant defense and LSU hammering Utah State. Joe Burrow threw five more touchdown passes in the Tigers win.
Alabama will play its first ranked opponent Saturday at No. 24 Texas A&M; so, all of the lazy weak schedule talk should be ending soon.
The Crimson Tide have what would be considered two tough games remaining. Hosting LSU on November 9 is the game everyone has circled, and the Iron Bowl, which is always physical and competitive regardless of favorites or record.
Will Alabama win out? ESPN’s updated Football Power Index thinks so. ESPN describes the FPI as follows on its website:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
Here are the game-by-game win probabilities for Alabama in 2019:
- October 12: at Texas A&M (83.7 percent win probability)
- October 19: vs Tennessee (97.7 percent)
- October 26: vs Arkansas (98.9 percent)
- November 9: vs LSU (74.1 percent)
- November 16: at Mississippi State (89.2 percent)
- November 23: vs Western Carolina (100 percent)
- November 30: at Auburn (70.7 percent)
The FPI gives Alabama a 26.4 percent chance of winning out and nearly a 50 percent chance of winning the conference.