Hayes: Alabama is going to dare JJ McCarthy to beat them. Can the Michigan QB do it?
Jim Harbaugh brought it up with JJ McCarthy last week, going down the inevitable road of coach and quarterback and move to the NFL.
McCarthy’s move, that is. Not Harbaugh’s — which, of course, is another story for another time.
“I told him, ‘I’m only zeroed in on Bama, coach,’” McCarthy, Michigan’s junior quarterback, said during Media Day for the Rose Bowl Playoff semifinal. “And he loved it. He was fired up.”
This is more than a Playoff game for No. 1 Michigan against No. 4 Alabama. More than Big Ten vs. SEC, or Michigan’s first Rose Bowl under Harbaugh or the first step to winning it all for the first time since 1997.
This is redemption.
This is about those 2 pick-6s McCarthy threw in last year’s Playoff semifinal loss to TCU, the one that ended a season and threw doubt on everything Harbaugh was building at Michigan — and whether he could get there with McCarthy.
It was Harbaugh who chose McCarthy over Cade McNamara — who led Michigan to a B1G title and a Playoff seminal loss in 2021 — to begin the 2022 season, and it was McCarthy who did nearly everything right until that TCU game.
In fact, McCarthy has 27 career starts at Michigan, and the only loss is to TCU. The only bad game of his career, the only hesitation for many NFL scouts.
Because more than any other factor, your tape is your resume.
“He’s a Day 1 guy, no question,” an NFL scout told Saturday Down South. “The arm strength, the game management, the ability to stress defenses with his legs. But I want to see what happens outside his and Michigan’s comfort zone. Those big moment games against the unknown. How he plays, how he reacts to adversity.”
Now here comes Alabama, about as uncomfortable as it gets for any team in college football. Maybe this is the moment where Michigan, for the first time since the TCU loss, relies on McCarthy’s unique ability to win a big game.
Michigan played 3 games against ranked teams this season, and each time, the run game was the focus of the game plan. Play great defense, run the ball, dictate tempo and win the game.
— McCarthy threw 8 passes — 8 passes! — in a 24-15 win at Penn State.
— He threw 20 passes (for 148 yards) — despite completing 80% of them — in a 30-24 win over Ohio State.
— He threw 30 passes against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the ball didn’t go downfield (147 yards passing, 4.9 yards per attempt).
In those 3 games against ranked teams, McCarthy averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Translation: Play it safe, win the game.
While those 3 opponents have the Nos. 2-4 scoring defenses in college football (Michigan is No. 1), Alabama, everyone, is a different animal. This Tide defense isn’t the Georgia defense that smothered Michigan in the 2021 Playoff, but it’s not that far off.
The idea of Michigan lining and running the ball right at the Alabama front 7, and playing great defense and relying on field position isn’t going to cut it.
In fact, it will more than likely lead to the same result of the previous 2 Playoff appearances for Michigan.
“We’ve been studying Alabama and they’re really good,” Harbaugh said. “So good that they can clear us right out of the stadium. But we are good, too. We have the ability to do the same to them.”
That’s where McCarthy enters the picture. Alabama will do what it always does, what its defense begins and ends with: stopping the run.
Alabama believes it can get pass game pressure with its defensive front, and stop the run with the front 7. The Tide will play 2 safeties high and force McCarthy and the Michigan receivers to win on the outside against a secondary that includes 2 Day 1 NFL picks (CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, S Malachi Moore), an emerging elite CB (Terrion Arnold), and the best freshman in college football (Caleb Downs).
In other words, if Alabama can stop the Michigan run — which no team has consistently done this season — the idea of McCarthy taking control of the game plays right into the strength of the Alabama defense.
That, however, also assumes 2 critical things: Alabama can get pressure with its front, and that McCarthy won’t wreck the man-under defense with his ability to break containment and extend plays with his legs.
We haven’t seen that as much this season because, frankly, Michigan hasn’t needed it. But he’s still the same McCarthy who throws accurately on the run (remember the throw to Cornelius Johnson against Ohio State?), and who can break the back of a defense with his 4.4 40 speed.
He’s still an accurate deep ball thrower, and Michigan is better on the outside with speedy and dynamic WRs Roman Wilson and Johnson, and an athletic TE (Colston Loveland) who will stretch the field and win against safeties and linebackers.
As good as Alabama is defensively, as good as the Tide are on this stage, it won’t be more difficult to move the ball on Alabama than it was on Ohio State. They’re similar in scheme and players — in fact, Ohio State’s defense has more NFL talent.
Michigan played smart and didn’t commit a turnover against Ohio State. The Wolverines ran for 186 yards and threw for 182 (including a 34-yard halfback pass from Donovan Edwards), and played great defense.
But Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, maybe the hottest player in college football, isn’t Kyle McCord, the former Ohio State starter. The Alabama offense will be a handful to stop.
Or, in the words of Harbaugh, could run Michigan out of the building.
There’s no other option for Michigan: McCarthy must be rare. Not just play smart and manage the game and take shots when they’re available. But change the game with next-level play Michigan hasn’t needed all season.
Get that, and there won’t be any question about McCarthy’s future.
Other than the immediate future of moving on and playing for a national championship.
“At the end of the day, it’s just not throwing it to the other team,” McCarthy said. “Just staying poised, calm and collected no matter what happens. Just going out there and being great every single play.”
And maybe finding redemption.
