Josh Pate, the host of The Late Kick, joined the crew at The Next Round this week to discuss the current state of the race for the College Football Playoff.

There are around 8 teams still in play for the 4-team field: Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, Washington, Oregon, Alabama and Texas. Louisville has a very outside chance, but still sits with just 1 loss on the season and could sneak in with a pure chaos scenario.

You’ll notice there’s at least one representative from each Power 5 conference on that list, which brings up the ultimate question: Who draws the short straw if the remainder of the season is pure chalk?

Pate thinks even discussing that scenario is a waste of time. He told The Next Round that a “volcanic Saturday” is still on the horizon, and that some of the top teams are going to start being picked off.

Pate also believes Alabama will make the CFP based on this fact:

“The Volcanic Saturday hasn’t happened yet,” Pate said. “And history tells us we’re not making it through a college football season where all this chalk holds, what may happen is we get one week deeper into November than usual and people convince themselves this is the anomaly year, and then it blows up. But there’s no way that’s about to happen, man.”

Pate continued by addressing Alabama’s hopes of reaching the dance, as well as the potential the Tide are left out for better resumes.

“There are multiple dominoes in the top 10 still to fall. I keep having folks, friends of mine, asking ‘Is Alabama going to get screwed?’ Alabama is going to be in, man. They win and they’re going to find a way in, because there’s going to be a clear path.”

Hear more from Pate below:

The Tide’s path is simple in theory: Win out, beat Georgia in the SEC title game. That would put Alabama at 12-1 on the year with wins over Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss. In practice, that’s obviously tougher done than said.

Alabama’s biggest enemy right now is Texas should the Tide win out. The Longhorns have lost once this year to Oklahoma, and if they lose again either before the end of the regular season or in the Big 12 championship game, their hopes are dashed.

If they win out, however, it would be tough to leave Texas out of the mix considering they beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa to start the season.

We’re in for a fun next few weeks, folks.