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The “what-if” questions are infinite when looking at the landscape of college football. How would this team fare in this conference? Will this program have success against that program?
These never-ending debates traditionally are buoyed by bluster, school pride and (in some cases) statistical data.
As the predicting of sporting events has become more intricate over time, there are many mechanisms designed to tackle those “what-if” inquiries.
What if Michigan played Alabama's schedule this season? We ran the numbers… pic.twitter.com/jvUVc6EgSG
— Sharon Katz (@skatz23) August 22, 2016
As an example, ESPN recently compared Michigan to Alabama using the FPI Index. This study is a measure of team strength — designed to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward. These projections are based upon 10,000 simulations.
Using the Index as a template, Michigan is projected to win 9.9 games this upcoming year based upon its schedule. When switching over to playing Alabama’s schedule, the win total drops by two — with the strength of schedule increasing considerably.
While we can’t truly ascertain how well Michigan would do with an SEC slate, it is fascinating to see these statistical projections whipped up with a simple click of a mouse.
