Modern offenses should shift expectations for Alabama's defense, so here's what's realistic in 2020
There are 2 things that can exist at the same time in 2020.
Alabama can have one of the best defenses in America, but it won’t be nearly as effective as the dominant units of the Nick Saban era.
Read that sentence again because I know it might sound like a crazy concept. Alabama’s defense can be dominant relative to its 2020 competition, but not to its program competition. On second thought, that doesn’t sound so crazy. At least it shouldn’t.
After all, Alabama is coming off a season in which it ranked No. 13 in scoring defense, yet it was easily one of the worst showings of the Saban era. Four teams hit 28 points against Alabama. From 2009-12 during the best 4-year stretch under Saban, a total of 4 teams hit 28 points against Alabama. That’s an average of 1 per year. From 2013-19, that number was 2.6. In just the past 2 years, that number is up to 4.
For Alabama fans, that might feel to some like the sky is falling. We’re talking about a program that had a 24-game streak of not allowing anyone to hit the 28-point mark. Not surprisingly, that streak was bookended by Cam Newton’s “Cam back” in 2010, and Johnny Manziel’s Heisman Trophy-clinching game in 2012. Once upon a time, hitting 28 points against Alabama was an accomplishment worthy of enshrinement. Now, true freshmen quarterbacks like John Rhys Plumlee are out here doing it.
Welcome to the new age. Rather, welcome to the new age of expectations.
Alabama fans should still expect the defense to be elite, especially this year. Well, unless the Crimson Tide has another September in which it’s forced to start 4 true freshmen in the front 7. As you recall, that happened last year when LaBryan Ray went down against South Carolina. In the previous 12 years of the Saban era, he had never started more than 1 true freshman in the front 7.
That included replacing preseason All-American middle linebacker Dylan Moses following his season-ending injury. The Crimson Tide lacked a guy who could sniff out run plays like this:
Alabama LB Dylan Moses (#32) is excellent at keeping his shoulders square and remaining patient when attacking downhill vs. the run.
Great example here: pic.twitter.com/1RrqhDq5ih
— Jordan Reid (@JReidNFL) August 8, 2019
Yes, the injuries mattered. Having Moses and Ray back healthy will matter, too. As much as we’ve grown accustomed to Alabama having depth galore, it’s different in the transfer portal era when you lose 5-star guys in the front 7 right before the start of the season like Antonio Alfano and Eyabi Anoma.
Also different is this whole “scoring points” thing in college football. Alabama is proof of that. The Crimson Tide finished No. 2 in FBS in scoring behind LSU’s record-setting offense. That marked the first time in 18 years that any SEC team posted a top-2 scoring offense. It’s no secret that offenses are built differently than they were at the beginning of the decade.
Gone are the days of 2011 when Alabama could allow just 12.6 completions per game. In 2019, teams attempted 6 more passes per game against Alabama than they did in 2011. That’s telling considering how often teams trailed against Alabama during that 2011 season.
From 2009-17, Alabama was at least No. 4 in scoring defense all but once (it ranked No. 6 in 2014). During that stretch, it had 4 defenses finish No. 1 in scoring and only 1 group (2014) allowed at least 16 points per game. Each of the last 2 years, Alabama finished outside the top 10 and allowed an average north of 18 points per game.
This is the part where Alabama fans remind me that Pete Golding is no Jeremy Pruitt or Kirby Smart and that Saban’s faith in him is incredibly frustrating. I’m not here to say you’re wrong to feel that way. I’ll instead say that if he can’t get it done in 2020, well, you won’t have to talk Saban into cutting bait.
At the very least, Alabama should get back to finishing in the top 10. It nearly did that last year when it was No. 13 in scoring. And actually, that’s not accounting for plays like the 2 pick-6s returned against Auburn. Take those plays away and that drops the average down a full point. There’s reason to believe Alabama’s defense could be several points better than it was a year ago.
Returning percentage of production is a phenomenal stat for projections, but the 1 thing it doesn’t totally account for is a team who will return several guys who missed a lot of time the previous season. In other words, no, Alabama’s No. 75 rank in percentage of returning production doesn’t tell the full story.
A healthy Moses is important (what a sentence) and so are the returns of Ray and Josh McMillon, who also suffered a season-ending injury last August.
Getting those veterans back in the front 7 with the return of more battle-tested sophomores D.J. Dale and Shane Lee should help Alabama improve in the area it looked least like its former self. That is, defending the run. Alabama was No. 7 in the SEC and No. 37 nationally in that category.
Let’s put that in perspective. From 2008-17, Alabama’s run defense was worse than No. 7 nationally once (2010) and it never fell outside the top 10. Even that 2018 team that allowed an average of 150 rushing yards in the final 3 games still finished No. 3 in the SEC and No. 19 nationally.
No wonder Alabama fans felt helpless watching that defense far too often. The Ole Miss game alone was enough to think there were different players in the Crimson Tide uniforms.
Golding doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel to get Alabama’s defense moving like it used to. Well, sort of.
Anyone saying Golding has to repeat the 2011 or 2012 units who averaged less than 11 points per game is unrealistic, especially considering Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin just joined the division and LSU discovered what offense was. Nobody in college football accomplished allowed less than 11 points since Alabama pulled it off in 2012. Three things seem like fair expectations for Alabama in 2020:
- Allow no more than 14 points per game
- Allow no more than 100 rushing yards per game
- Allow no more than 2 games of 28 points
Hitting those 3 marks could likely give Alabama a top-5 defense at season’s end. Is that easier said than done? Absolutely. That 2018 team didn’t deal with the injuries in the front 7 that the 2019 team did and it struggled down the stretch against better competition (don’t forget the defensive letdown against Arkansas).
I still come back to the belief that the power shift in the SEC favors these offenses. There are more teams willing to roll out up-tempo, high-octane offenses. Closing your eyes and hoping for a repeat of 2011 is unrealistic in 2020. That’s fine. And it’s fine if Alabama’s defense has to do some more heavy lifting in the post-Tua Tagovailoa era.
Call me crazy, but it just might be ready for that.
In the current NFL, allowing less than 14 points and 275 total yards per game is considered excellent, as very few teams ever reach those numbers.
I think those of us that have followed football for 60+ years are conditioned to think that a shutout and allowing less than 100 yards rushing and less than 100 yards passing is what makes for a great college defense.
However, when I think about the 1960’s college basketball when teams were scoring 80-100 points per game and with great defenses giving up 75-85 points per game, looking back 40 years to when teams won college games 25-18 would have made me think that even the great Tennessee teams with Ray Mears couldn’t play a lick of defense.
Thanks, Mr. O’Gara, for allowing me to “see” this in my mind. Teams may have strong defenses and give up 30 points per game just like UCLA basketball used to give up 80 points in basketball in a 100-possession game, while Marquette gave up 60 points in a 70-possession game. The media said that Al McGuire was a defensive mastermind, when MU gave up more pts/poss than UCLA.
You do know this is a football article, right?
“so here’s what’s realistic in 2020”
There won’t be a 2020 season, simply because there is no safe way to play. Everything else is fantasy.
See that clip of Moses tackling CEH for a loss? That’s what we missed in 2019, especially the LSU game where our entire defense forgot how to tackle and let CEH run around and through them all game.
Of course the biggest difference between 2018 and 2019 is LSU wasn’t running the same plays in 19 it had been running since 2010. Gone was the run left on 1st dwn, run right on 2nd, chuck it deep on 3rd offense. It was replaced by a totally un-predictable offense that would throw on 1st and 2nd dwn. I can almost guarantee that run play in the video was on 1st or 2nd dwn. CEH was a completely diff beast in 2019. Moses likely would’ve made some plays on him but nobody was stopping LSUs Off in 2019. You just didn’t see those same plays in 19.
I agree Moses was the biggest difference in the tides Def playing below standards, but the biggest difference for LSU was the system change. I’m certainly glad for it and excited about the yrs ahead.
Kevin Steele’s D stymied LSU’s O for most of the game. If the O showed any semblance of a unit, that game & the season could’ve been completely different.
LSU moved the ball at will vs Aub and go a zillion yds! LSU was in complete control of the gm. Aub did get key stops in the red-zone by playing coverage and using their great front 4 for pass rush.
With the gm under control and Aub not doing anything on offense, O played conservative. It nearly backfired as Aub got a late score to make the gm look close. That was the last (only) gm LSUs offense got conservative in the red-zone. Had Aub done anything on Off, LSU would’ve put the pedal down.
LSUs Off dominated Aubs Def everywhere but on the score board, which I admit is the most important thing. Kudos to Steele for having a GP that allowed a zillion yds but got stops in the red-zone.
Remember, LSU led 23-13 until a late TD by Aub with seconds left. Fortunately LSU got the on/side kick to end the gm.
Well Auburn only rushed 3 guys for most of the game. It was tied at the half and Auburn led for as much of the game if not more than LSU. That game was close, and you’re living in a dream world if you think otherwise.
So true. Auburn missed its’ chance but then again, you’ve got Malzahn at the helm. Right when you needed some offense there’s the ‘high school offensive wizard’ leading the way!
It’s difficult to compare current Defs to yrs past stat- wise. Offenses are more open and they have a lot of built in advantages. I think when you compare Bama’ s Def to other current Defs, they’ll be seen as elite. They’ll do a better job stopping modern offenses than most anyone.
“Yes, the injuries mattered.”
Yes, they did. 2019 was an aberration for Alabama defense almost entirely attributable to their front seven injuries. If Saban didn’t think Golding could get the job done, Charlie Strong would already be the DC.
Top 10 defenses in 2019 allowed 260-300 yards per game and 12-17 points per game. The FBS average for the last few years has been around 395-410 yards per game and about 28 points per game.
The times they are not a changin’ for top 10 defenses.
All of which nibbles around the edges of the real reason, which is the NCAA randomly enforcing ejecting starters via arbitrary targeting rules against defensive players while simultaneously encouraging high scoring offensive strategies like the RPO and being able stroll three to five yards downfield whenever you want.
We should be grateful we were able to watch some outstanding defense-oriented football while it was allowed to exist. Sadly, it’s gone the way of traveling fouls being called in basketball.
That’s spot on. There are no more head hunters keeping players from exploiting the middle of the field. Also the fast pace of the modern offense means more plays in a game.
This article, like so many others previewing 2020 performance, depends on the historical norm of player availability. Positive tests and mass quarantines for COVID will be the wild card this coming season, assuming its played. Those teams that have the virus run through the team early – summer workouts, camp – may be in much better position once we’re in to the season.
A top-ten unit is a totally different animal if portions of it are constantly rolling through two-week quarantines. If this season actually kicks off, it’s going to be a wild ride.