Last weekend at halftime of Alabama’s Elite Eight matchup against Clemson, the Tide found themselves up by a slim 35-32 margin.

Alabama trailed by as many as 13 points in that half before making a run just before the break to take the lead. Despite those first-half struggles, Nate Oats was calm. He had no reason to be concerned. Math was on his side.

Oats later told reporters that a third-party analytics company hired by Alabama informed him that, based on the expected value of shots attempted in the first half, Alabama should have been up by 11.

“I told the guys that … expected value, we’re winning this game by 11. They’re taking tough shots and happen to be making them,” Oats said. “We’ve got some easy layups, and we’re missing them. We have to finish at the rim and just keep doing what we’re doing.”

Alabama made a few more shots in the second half and ultimately won 89-82. In the process, Alabama advanced to its first-ever Final Four on the back of a philosophy that the rest of college basketball has been too slow to adopt.

Oats’ devotion to being analytically-optimal is why Alabama is where it is. In 5 years in Tuscaloosa, Oats has led Alabama to its first Final Four, its first No. 1 seed, 3 Sweet 16 appearances, 2 SEC Tournament titles and 2 SEC regular season crowns.

Oats understands the expected value of every field goal attempt. He knows that, in general, a 3-pointer attempted by a 35-percent shooter is worth more points in expected value (1.05) than a mid-range shot attempted by a 45% shooter (0.9). He also understands that a layup from a player who makes 70% of their shots at the rim is worth more than both (1.4). There are, of course, other factors at play on any given shot, most of them dependent on what the opponent is doing defensively. But the general idea translates across most situations: Shots at the rim and 3-pointers are the most valuable shots in basketball.

Reducing those less-efficient mid-range attempts is the key to optimizing offensive basketball in the year 2024, and that’s true at any level of basketball (with some exceptions for elite mid-range shooters, of course). Alabama takes more 3-pointers than just about any other high-major, but that’s not the point, Oats explained.

“How many [3-pointers] did we shoot tonight? For all the naysayers, is 36 too many?” Oats said after Alabama’s win over Clemson. “Sixteen out of 36 ain’t bad. 48 points from the 3-point line ain’t too bad. So, look, it’s not — here’s the thing people don’t understand: We’re not trying to shoot 50 3s, we’re trying to take the most efficient shots we can.”

More important than understanding that concept, Oats actually implements it. This season, Alabama took just 10.9% of its shots from a range classified as “farther twos” by BartTorvik. That mark finished second nationally, behind only Indiana State. Instead, the Tide attempted 46.6% of its shots from 3-point range and 42.2% of its shots at the rim.

The optimization of possession-by-possession efficiency is still a relatively new concept. A decade ago, this revolution had hardly begun.

Back in 2014, the NBA was still very much living and dying by ill-advised mid-range jumpers while neglecting more optimal approaches. That season, 28 of the NBA’s 30 franchises attempted more than 30% of their total field goal tries from the mid-range. By 2019, the number of teams who met that criteria fell to 10. In 2024, there are only 3 such NBA teams.

Progress has been a bit less linear in the college game. In 2014, there were 58 high-major programs (power-6 conferences plus the AAC) who shot at least 30% of their field goal attempts from the mid-range. In 2024, that number has dipped to 24. That’s real progress! However, that growth has been stalled since about 2018 (when 27 teams met that criteria). The reluctance of other high-major coaches to go a more-efficient approach is why Oats and Alabama still have a sizable edge over much of college basketball.

Keep in mind, this Alabama team does not have any players who are projected as serious NBA prospects. And yet, the Tide’s offense ranks No. 3 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric behind only UConn (who may have as many as 4 first-round picks) and Purdue (who has the sport’s most dominant player surrounded by capable 3-point shooters).

Oats’ success with these ideas is also what landed him the Alabama job in the first place. He was previously the head coach at Buffalo and he led that program to 3 NCAA Tournaments and 2 NCAA Tournament victories over 4 seasons. Buffalo never attempted more than 21.5% of its field goal attempts from mid-range under Oats. The Bulls even cracked the top-25 in the AP Poll in Oats’ last season there in 2019 for the first time in program history. In their 33 modern-era seasons without Oats at the helm, Buffalo has 1 other NCAA Tournament appearance.

When Alabama plays Connecticut on Saturday night, Oats will not have a significant edge in the shot-efficiency department. The Huskies are 5th this season amongst high-major teams with a mid-range field goal attempt rate of 18%. Alabama is markedly less-talented than UConn, as well, which is perhaps why the Huskies are 12-point favorites (via bet365) in this semifinal showdown. Talent still matters at the highest levels of this sport.

But playing this way gives Alabama a chance. Not only against UConn, but against other more basketball-focused programs in the SEC such as Kentucky and Florida on an annual basis. This model gave Buffalo a chance, too.

“I think you can win playing this way,” Oats said. “They win playing this way in the NBA. We’ve just proven you can make a Final Four run.”

It works at Alabama. It works at Buffalo. It works in the NBA.

It’s time for the rest of college basketball to catch up.