O'Gara: Julio Jones? Amari Cooper? Calvin Ridley? Nah, keep Year 1 expectations in check for Ryan Williams
The second that Ryan Williams announced that he was all in with Kalen DeBoer at Alabama, dots were connected.
To be fair, it’s natural to let expectations run wild when a 5-star receiver commits anywhere. But at Alabama, where Williams signed on Wednesday as the program’s top-rated receiver since Julio Jones in 2008, those dots were connected in an extreme way.
Mind you, this is the place that has since signed blue-chip receivers like Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, Henry Ruggs, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, to name a few. Take recruiting rankings for what they are. Agiye Hall signed as a higher-rated recruit than Cooper and we know how that turned out. Hall’s peak at Alabama was the lone spring game he was there for while Cooper broke Alabama’s all-time receiving touchdowns record as a true freshman.
Cooper, Ridley and Jones all had something that Williams also figures to have from the jump — an opportunity to step in and become the WR1. Kobe Prentice is the lone returning wide receiver from the 2023 Alabama squad who had 150 receiving yards. That almost certainly will help Williams get into the starting lineup sooner rather than later.
But let’s not set Jones/Cooper/Ridley Year 1 as the expectation for Williams. Not yet.
Why? Didn’t all of them finish as the team’s leading receiver with All-SEC honors at the end of their respective true freshmen seasons? Yep. Maybe Williams will join that exclusive club. I won’t rule that out. I just won’t set it as the expectation.
History suggests that there are more deterrents to that type of true freshman season than there are obvious paths to entry.
Let’s start with the obvious. Since Ridley became a go-to target as a true freshman in 2015, here are some notable blue-chip Alabama receivers and their production as true freshmen (all of these guys were top-100 recruits in their classes):
- DeVonta Smith (2017) — 8 catches, 160 yards, 3 TDs
- Henry Ruggs II (2017) — 12 catches, 229 yards, 6 TDs
- Jerry Jeudy (2017) — 14 catches, 264 yards, 2 TDs
- Tyrell Shavers (2017) — 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TDs
- Jaylen Waddle (2018) — 45 catches, 848 yards, 7 TDs
- Ja’Corey Brooks (2021) — 15 catches, 192 yards, 2 TDs
- JoJo Earle (2021) — 12 catches, 148 yards, 0 TDs
- Agiye Hall (2021) — 4 catches, 72 yards, 0 TDs
- Aaron Anderson (2022) — 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TDs
- Kendrick Law (2023) — 8 catches, 103 yards, 0 TDs
- Kobe Prentice (2022) — 31 catches, 337 yards, 2 TDs
- Jalen Hale (2023) — 5 catches, 148 yards, 1 TD
That’s 12 decorated receivers, only 1 of whom produced a true freshman season with at least 340 receiving yards. Sure, those 2017 guys, as decorated as they were, walked into a situation that already had pre-draft Ridley and a regressing Year 2 Jalen Hurts. And you could point to other issues outside of pure talent that limited some of the others.
But my point is becoming a go-to receiver as a true freshman in the SEC is still darn near impossible, despite what those 3 Alabama legends did.
Since Ridley’s prolific 2015 true freshman campaign, Waddle is the only true freshman receiver in the entire SEC who hit 800 receiving yards (Brock Bowers did that as a tight end in 2021). Since Jones’ 924-yard true freshman season in 2008, here are the only SEC receivers who hit 900 receiving yards as true freshmen (that excludes a redshirt freshman like Mike Evans in 2012):
- 2012 Amari Cooper (999 yards)
- 2015 Calvin Ridley (1,045 yards)
- 2015 Christian Kirk (1,009 yards)
That’s 15 years of elite wide receivers rolling into the SEC and just 3 have hit 900 receiving yards as true freshmen, the last of which occurred 9 years ago.
Ah, but wait. What about the receivers who went off for Kalen DeBoer’s squad at Washington? Didn’t I watch the Huskies’ runner-up team just have the best 1-3 group of receivers in America? And aren’t they all about to get drafted?
Yes and yes. But let’s remember that last point — they’re all about to get drafted. They weren’t true freshmen trying to get separation against established SEC corners. You’ve got to be a different kind of freak to do that.
Williams might be that freak. I’m not ruling that out. In that offense with DeBoer, it wouldn’t surprise me if he eventually becomes an All-SEC guy who establishes himself as an early-round pick. After all, the guy was a 2-time Mr. Football in Alabama who racked up 3,930 scrimmage yards and 65 rushing/receiving touchdowns in his final 2 years. He committed to the Tide during his sophomore year. He reopened his commitment after Nick Saban’s retirement, but DeBoer got him to re-commit, probably thanks in part to his recent track record at the position.
(A weird thought? Technically, Williams signed with Alabama as a 16-year-old because he reclassified to the 2024 class. He initially wanted to sign on his 17th birthday on Friday, but he moved it up 2 days.)
There’s nothing wrong with setting some major expectations for Williams’ career as a whole. It’d be strange if we were quiet about Alabama’s highest-rated receiver recruit since Jones. Who knows? If Williams has a 600-yard true freshman season with a very young Ridley-like frame, we could be talking about him being the SEC’s top wideout going into Year 2.
But in Year 1? Hold off on assuming he’ll be a different kind of freak.