Ad Disclosure
Paul Finebaum believes Saturday’s showdown between No. 11 Alabama and No. 15 LSU in Death Valley is the biggest game of the season in college football.
We’ve had 3 matchups between top-5 teams already this year — one in which Alabama was victorious — but none of those games really impacted the College Football Playoff. Not in the way the Week 11 game between the Crimson Tide and the Tigers will. On Thursday, during an appearance on ESPN’s Out of Pocket, Finebaum said there would be “no tomorrow” for the loser.
He echoed that sentiment on Friday during an appearance on ESPN’s Get Up.
“This is the biggest game of the year in college football, not because these are the 2 best teams, but this is the first Playoff eliminator,” the SEC Network host said. “The loser has almost no path back. The winner has a chance to figure it out. Now, it’s a battle of quarterbacks and I happen to like Jalen Milroe. He’s a dual-threat. Nussmeier is an outstanding passer … but I like LSU to go down at home.”
Both teams already have 2 losses on the season. The belief among many is that a 10-win SEC team is likely to crack the 12-team CFP field, but a 3-loss SEC team will have the deck stacked against them.
Should Alabama lose what is its only remaining game against a ranked opponent, the Crimson Tide would have 2 wins they can hang their hat on — a 7-point win over Georgia and a 34-0 win over Missouri. Would that be enough? And would it be better than a team that might not have as many loses but might not play in as tough a conference? That remains to be seen.
Should LSU lose, the Tigers will be hanging their hat entirely on a 3-point overtime win over Ole Miss at home. They lost to USC to open the season and they lost to Texas A&M on the road 2 weeks ago. Unless Vanderbilt cracks the top 25 ahead of their Nov. 23 meeting, LSU would go 1-3 against ranked opponents.
At ESPN Bet, Alabama is -140 right now to make the Playoff. LSU is +190 to make the CFP. The implied odds on a bet for LSU to miss the CFP (-250) is hovering just above 70%. Alabama to miss the CFP has plus value at ESPN Bet right now, with a +110 price.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite in the game.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
