This is going to sound like some weird spin zone for Alabama, but I promise I’m not attempting to make some forced, glass half-full rationalization for a scenario in which Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday night.

In a stunning turn of events, the Heisman actually isn’t super obvious, despite the fact that the odds were overwhelmingly in Tagovailoa’s favor a couple of weeks ago. Whether he wins or Kyler Murray, who certainly closed the gap with his performance in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship victory, there’s a silver lining if you’re an Alabama fan.

There are positives to Tagovailoa not winning the award. Several, actually.

In a way, they all sort of fall under the same umbrella. Call it motivation or a rallying cry, but there’s something to be said for finishing second in the Heisman Trophy voting.

The best example of that was when Vince Young finished second to Reggie Bush in 2005, which Young admitted was a major driving force behind his national championship performance against USC a month later.

Obviously Tagovailoa isn’t the type of person who would come out and admit such a thing. He’s too politically correct for that. But there’s still the basic competitive instinct in him and anyone who finishes runner-up in the Heisman.

Alabama fans know that all too well. Remember when Deshaun Watson finished second in the Heisman in 2016? All he did was turn around and lead Clemson to a national title over Alabama a month later.

Besides Watson, notice the trend with 21st century quarterbacks who finished runner-up in the Heisman voting:

[table “” not found /]

Heisman Trophy runner-up quarterbacks are 7-3 in bowl games — all of which were New Year’s 6/BCS bowls — with 3 national titles in the 21st century (that’s including Watson’s semifinal win in 2016). Maybe there is a little “chip on the shoulder” mindset after missing out on the Heisman.

The counterargument is well, duh, of course those guys played well in the postseason. They were Heisman runners-up for a reason.

So you’re probably wondering the other question. That is, how have Heisman-winning quarterbacks performed in the postseason?

I’m glad you asked:

[table “” not found /]

Including Mariota’s 2014 semifinal win, that’s a 7-9 postseason mark for Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks in the 21st century. In either Playoff/national championship games, that’s an even worse 4-7 mark. With how many games Heisman Trophy quarterbacks have won throughout their careers, that’s a noticeable trend.

Maybe it’s just the hoopla of the presentation, or it could be as simple as giving an opposing defenses all the ammo it needs to go all out. Whatever it is, there’s something to be said for that.

Now of course, regardless of what happens Saturday night, it won’t predetermine anything that happens with Tagovailoa or Murray. For all we know, one will follow Winston, Newton and Leinart, who are the only quarterbacks this century to win the Heisman and the national title in the same year.

But if Tagovailoa doesn’t win college football’s top individual award, history is on his side.

There’s also another rather obvious positive to Tagovailoa coming up empty-handed.

I’ve never been on a 13-0 team, but I can imagine based on the way Nick Saban literally asks the media to write negative things about his team after wins, you’ll take any source of motivation you can get. Whether that’s an opposing player saying “We want Bama” or a group of media members deciding that your quarterback isn’t the best player in college football, Alabama will try and play the “nobody believed in us” narrative any way possible.

Even looking past the Playoff and to next year, that can be a source of motivation for Tagovailoa. We always talk about how difficult it is for a Heisman winner to repeat that success the following year, which is why Archie Griffin is the only repeat winner ever. And yeah, the great ones like Tebow and Jackson made it back to New York after winning their Heismans. Nobody would be surprised if Tagovailoa followed in their footsteps. But more times than not, it’s an uphill climb the following year.

Look, that’s not my way of saying that Alabama fans should want Murray to win the Heisman. Becoming the first Alabama quarterback to win that honor would be quite the accomplishment considering the greats who came before Tagovailoa.

Up until this past Saturday, it felt like Tagovailoa’s 2018 was as good as if not better than Winston’s 2013 or Newton’s 2010. Perhaps it still will be and recency bias is fueling the notion that Murray stole the Heisman on championship weekend. We’ll find out Saturday.

No matter what happens, though, Alabama fans should keep the bigger picture in perspective.

It’s a win-win scenario.