Through 4 weeks of the season, I don’t think you’d get any pushback in making this declaration.

The toughest player to replace in the SEC has been Bryce Young.

Even coming off of a get-right game against Ole Miss, Jalen Milroe’s start has been a roller coaster for the Tide. Forget just game to game. Even quarter to quarter, drive to drive, Milroe and the Tide passing game has been tough to predict.

But here’s a little prediction ahead of Saturday’s matchup at Mississippi State — Milroe is about to go off.

Why? Well, while Young has certainly been the toughest offensive player to replace in the SEC, fellow first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes owns that title on the defensive side. The former Mississippi State All-American corner is the FBS all-time leader in pick-sixes (6), and he’s already establishing himself as a ball-hawking corner as an NFL rookie with the Washington Commanders.

To say that Zach Arnett misses Forbes would be a gross understatement. In 3 games against Power 5 competition, the Bulldogs allowed an average of 332 yards per game and a 79% completion rate. Among teams that have played at least 3 Power 5 teams, they rank dead last with 9.6 yards/pass attempt allowed.

Spencer Rattler was the latest quarterback to go off against Mississippi State. He completed his first 17 passes and finished a nearly flawless performance with just 2 incompletions.

But perhaps more telling was what happened in Week 2 against Arizona. The Wildcats threw interceptions on their first 3 drives. It was a sloppy, turnover fest that Mississippi State was on the right side of with an early 14-0 lead.

What did Arizona do after that? Switch things up and try to run the football? Nope. Arizona felt it had the matchup advantage, so Jayden de Laura kept throwing. Three first-quarter interceptions didn’t deter him. After that horrendous start, here were his numbers to help Arizona force overtime:

  • 1st quarter: 4-for-7, 19 yards (2.7 yards/attempt), 3 INTs
  • Rest of game: 28-for-39, 323 yards (8.3 yards/attempt), 2 TDs, 1 INT

That kicked off an 11-quarter stretch that’s been a total nightmare for Mississippi State’s pass defense. It allowed LSU to rack up 367 yards through the air in a 41-14 loss at home, and that aforementioned Rattler performance came in a 37-30 loss.

Each of those 3 teams had a receiver reach at least 160 receiving yards. They had 1 guy look un-guardable. Arizona had Tetairoa McMillan (8 catches for 161 yards, 1 TD), LSU had Malik Nabers (13 catches for 239 yards, 2 TDs) and South Carolina had Xavier Legette (5 catches for 189 yards, 2 TDs).

That should be music to Milroe’s ears. The knock on the first-year Alabama starter is that he tends to lock in on a specific receiver instead of working through his progressions. His 3 interceptions this year all appeared to be a byproduct of that. That’s not to say that he can get away with locking in on 1 receiver all night, but there does appear to be some forgiveness against the Mississippi State defense.

The question is whether Alabama has a guy worthy of locking in on. McMillan, Nabers and Legette don’t exclusively line up on the outside. They all average between 10-21 snaps per game in the slot in 2023. Alabama leading receivers Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton have been moved around a bit, though neither has hit 6 catches or 80 receiving yards in a game this season. Consider that a sign of the times for the Alabama air attack, which ranks No. 102 in FBS in passing yards/game (No. 13 in SEC) and No. 116 in passing attempt/game (dead last in SEC).

Struggles aside, one would think there has to be an emphasis on testing Mississippi State’s struggling secondary. Even if Milroe gets off to a rough start that resembles de Laura’s in Starkville, there should still be plenty of opportunities to keep attacking downfield. NC State and TCU are the only Power 5 teams that have allowed more passing plays of 40 yards than Mississippi State (6). That’s been the only strength of the Alabama passing offense so far. The Tide rank No. 27 in FBS with 5 such plays, 4 of which came from Milroe.

And while this technically didn’t count as a 40-yard play, these are the types of moments that Milroe needs to have against Mississippi State:

Yep. That’ll play anywhere.

Milroe needs that type of toughness in what’ll be his first career road start. Alabama’s 15-year winning streak against Mississippi State doesn’t guarantee anything. If these first 4 weeks have shown anything, it’s that it doesn’t make sense to project 2023 success based on those previous 15 years of dominance. The patented numbers on the helmet might still impact a TV slot, but it doesn’t mean that the Tide can give a C- effort and expect to roll.

On Saturday night, the lights will be bright on Milroe. He’ll have to navigate Alabama’s offense through a sea of cowbells. Who knows? Maybe he’ll run into a desperate Mississippi State squad that shows up for a 60-minute fight, and the unique 3-3-5 defense will frustrate him.

Whatever Milroe sees, one thing is clear — now is as good of a time as ever to go off.