It’s the beginning of the big push to the finish line. Arkansas (5-3, 3-1) is fresh off a much-needed bye week that head coach Sam Pittman used to get his players healthy and rested for that final stretch. Now it’s time to find out if the extra week of preparation pays off

The Razorbacks host Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2) on Saturday, with bowl eligibility on the line. The winner is in. The loser still has 3 more chances to punch its ticket to the postseason.

Arkansas has never lost to the Bulldogs in Little Rock, where it is 6-0-1 all time. But this one is being played at Razorback Stadium. The series is much more even on the Hogs’ campus. Their lead is only 4-3 there.

How will it all turn out this time around? Here are 5 bold predictions.

1. Hogs become bowl-eligible

A rested Razorbacks team comes out of the gates hungry and extends its win streak to 2 games while snapping the Bulldogs’ 2-game win streak.

I look for QB KJ Jefferson to have a big game, if the extra week of rest has helped him get healthy. I think it will. If so, he’ll give Mississippi State’s defense fits trying to stop him both on the ground and through the air.

Arkansas wins this game and improves to 6-3 for the season, becoming bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016.

2. Arkansas defense grounds air raid attack

It’s strength vs. strength. Mike Leach and his air raid offense leads the SEC with 371 passing yards per game. With Will Rogers at the helm, the Bulldogs have thrown for a minimum of 300 yards in every game this season, except for the 294 they threw against North Carolina State way back on Sept. 11.

But the Hogs aren’t impressed. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Arkansas has not given up 300 passing yards in a game this season. And it won’t on Saturday, either. Arkansas ranks 2nd in the conference against the pass, yielding just 167.5 passing yards per game.

So my bold prediction here is that the Hogs will ground Rogers, limiting Mississippi State’s air raid offense to its lowest total this season. That means Arkansas will hold the Bulldogs to fewer than 294 passing yards.

3. Arkansas -5

I’m looking for an ugly, sloppy, messy game, and that’s to Arkansas’ advantage. The Hogs will move the ball both on the ground, with RBs Trelon Smith and Raheim Sanders along with Jefferson, and through the air, with the SEC’s leading receiver Treylon Burks (717 yards), who is coming off a 3-touchdown (1 rushing) performance against UAPB.

Both teams should be able to move the ball between the 20s and score some points. But in the end, the Hogs will prove too much and win the game by more than 5 points.

4. Under 55.5

As mentioned, both teams should be able to move the ball and score some points. Turnovers will be a key, and that will prove to be a factor in holding the number under 55.5 points. The Bulldogs have picked off 10 passes this season and thrown 7 of their own. Arkansas has intercepted 7 passes and have turned the ball over just 7 times. That’s 3rd-fewest in the SEC, after Ole Miss and Alabama with 6 each.

It’s an edge that, should it hold up, could very well swing the momentum in Arkansas’ favor.

5. Hogs rush for 200 yards

On its face, this doesn’t look like much of a bold prediction. But should the Razorbacks surpass the 200-yard rushing mark, they would be the 1st to do so this season against Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs are tied with Alabama for 2nd in the SEC against the run, allowing just 717 yards on the ground in 2021. But no SEC defense comes close to the Bulldogs in rushing attempts against. Mississippi State has had to defend only 212 rushing attempts. Georgia is a distant 2nd (245).

Arkansas will run, run and run some more on Saturday. And it will be successful at it, too. Expect Smith, Sanders Jefferson and Dominique Johnson, who averages nearly 8 yards per carry in 39 attempts — prompting Pittman to want more carries for him — to test the Bulldogs’ defense.