Heading into the 2021 season, my buddy Brad Crawford came out with his SEC quarterback rankings for 247sports. Brad took it on the chin from Arkansas fans for ranking Jefferson No. 14 out of 14 SEC signal-callers. To Brad’s credit, he later issued a public apology to Arkansas fans and admitted on multiple platforms (including ours) that he was wrong for doubting the Razorbacks’ signal-caller ahead of his breakout season. Brad had Jefferson at No. 4 in his postseason SEC quarterback rankings and said he might be a top-2 SEC quarterback in 2022.

(Also, Brad crushes bowl projections like nobody in this business so cut him some slack.)

Why do I bring that up? Well, Jefferson took note of that, and he also took note of a new ranking (or sorts) that didn’t give him a whole lot of love.

When Caesars Sports released its way-too-early Heisman Trophy favorites, Jefferson was only No. 14 among SEC players in the odds (H/T Michael Bratton). That prompted Jefferson to quote tweet those odds with the response “Last once again, I thought y’all would have learned by now.”

(Jefferson’s Twitter account is protected, which is why I showed Tye’s tweet.)

Jefferson has a legitimate gripe there. In no world should he have worse Heisman odds than 11 (!) SEC quarterbacks. The dude just posted a 21-4 TD-INT ratio with 9.1 yards per attempt while racking up 661 rushing yards. Those 150-to-1 Heisman odds almost looked like an oversight.

And to be fair, Jefferson did get a bit more love in the way-too-early Heisman odds on FanDuel. Among SEC players, Jefferson was ranked No. 9:

  • 1. Bryce Young +200
  • T2. Spencer Rattler +4000
  • T2. Will Anderson +4000
  • T4. Will Rogers +5000
  • T4. Anthony Richardson +5000
  • T4. Will Levis +5000
  • T7. Hendon Hooker +6000
  • T7. Max Johnson +6000
  • 9. KJ Jefferson +8000

Should there really be 8 SEC quarterbacks ahead of Jefferson in those odds? Um, I’ll say it in Spanish. “No.”

If you’re an Arkansas fan, seeing this should actually be good news. After an offseason in which Jefferson’s conditioning was in question — that was Brad’s justification for his pre-2021 ranking — it’s a positive development to see that the team’s breakout player is still being slept on.

So what does Jefferson need to do in order to get on the radar outside of Arkansas?

The simple answer to that is Jefferson needs to improve in a post-Treylon Burks world. The All-SEC wideout had 3 times as much production as the next-closest Arkansas receiver, which is why he left early for the NFL. I’d be curious to know how much of Jefferson’s Heisman skepticism is related to the Outback Bowl, wherein an Arkansas passing game finished the day with 98 passing yards after Burks opted out. Jefferson ran the ball more than he threw it, and no Arkansas player had more than 3 catches for 33 yards.

If Jefferson had repeated his Ole Miss performance in the bowl game, there’s no question that his odds would be different than what they currently are. Instead, Arkansas had a successful but one-dimensional attack that all but abandoned the pass in the second half.

There’s room for Jefferson to grow as a passer. While the efficiency was there, he also held onto the ball a bit longer than you’d like, which was why he took at least 3 sacks in each of Arkansas’ final 5 games. Sometimes, that’s OK, and with the lack of separation from non-Burks receivers at times, that’s what the situation called for. Jefferson only had the 4 interceptions, which was exactly what Sam Pittman wanted to see with his experienced defense.

That’s great for winning football games. For winning Heismans, there’s another step that Jefferson needs to take.

We won’t really know what that looks like until Jefferson kicks off the season against a new-look Cincinnati defense fresh off a Playoff berth. If he makes more plays like this, it won’t take long to get that national buzz:

Would it help if Jefferson finished fall camp looking like a shredded tank at 230 pounds? I’m not saying the dude has to start posting workout videos on Instagram every day, but sure, that would help. Would it also help if we saw Jefferson light up spring ball with new Oklahoma transfer Jadon Haselwood? I’m not saying the dude has to start posting clips of throwing sessions on Instagram every day, but sure, that would probably help, too.

There’s potential for that buzz to build even more if Jefferson checks all the “man on a mission” boxes. I wouldn’t doubt that.

But it’s worth remembering that while Jefferson quieted many doubters with his breakout season, we’re still living in a time when Heisman Trophy quarterbacks have to be elite passers. Lamar Jackson dazzled with his legs, which played a major part in him winning the 2016 Heisman. He still threw for nearly 3,400 yards and 30 touchdowns ahead of the Heisman ceremony.

In fact, the last time a Heisman-winning quarterback had fewer than 3,000 yards going into the ceremony was 2010 Cam Newton.

(This is the part where I rant about Gary Danielson making way, way too many comparisons to Newton. He did that with Jefferson in the A&M game and even as a Jefferson supporter, I rolled my eyes. Let’s maybe pump the breaks on comparing multiple quarterbacks a year to arguably the best single-season effort we’ve seen in college football history, OK?)

By the way, Newton also went into the Heisman ceremony as a member of the 20-20 club with 28 passing scores and 20 rushing scores. He eventually hit the elusive 50-touchdown mark in the BCS National Championship.

That’s a more realistic path for Jefferson. No, not winning a national title in 2022. It’s joining the 20-20 club and at least flirting with 3,000 pre-Heisman passing yards. It’s keeping Arkansas in the hunt for a division title in November and getting through a brutal pre-bye start to the season.

That seems like a lot because it is. For a program that hasn’t had an All-SEC quarterback since Tyler Wilson in 2011, you know that fan base is starved for a banner year from Jefferson.

Well, check that. Another* banner year from Jefferson.

Another year in Kendal Briles’ offense should bode well, too. Let’s not forget that Jefferson was recruited to run Chad Morris’ offense. Understanding the tempo and the reads at a higher level will elevate the floor of the passing game. It’ll at least help eliminate some of the dependence on Burks, who accounted for 40% of Arkansas’ receiving yards (that was nearly the same as 2020 DeVonta Smith).

In some ways, this is exactly what Arkansas could’ve hoped for when 2021 began. Jefferson had a year worthy of an all-conference selection — he would’ve earned the honor in most seasons in recent memory — and Arkansas had a 9-win season. Even better for Arkansas would be if Hooker, Rogers and Young earned the SEC’s preseason all-conference honors. There’s a realistic scenario in which that happens.

There’s also a realistic scenario in which Jefferson emerges in an even bigger way in 2022. Will it be worthy of Heisman consideration? That’s up to Jefferson. He’s got all the tools needed.

Including a little extra fuel to the fire.