It’s a hard scenario to envision.

Picture sitting here 8 months from now and having doubts about Sam Pittman’s long-term future. Sitting here in May 2021, even the future outlook of his future outlook looks optimistic.

That’s a unique thing to say about a coach with 3 career wins, but 2020 was a unique year and Pittman was in a unique spot. The deck was stacked him in Year 1. Hence, why Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek was essentially willing to give him a pass. Pittman was rewarded with a 1-year extension for winning 3 more SEC games than his predecessor and in half the time.

Now, every time Pittman calls the Hogs in public or fires off a “YESSSSSIRRRRR!” tweet, he has an army of supporters.

Good. He should. For all the people who criticized Pittman’s background when the hire was made, Year 1 was a nice clap back. It’s widely expected that after retaining both coordinators and returning all but 1 starter on defense, Arkansas should take another step in 2021.

But what does regression even look like? And is there any scenario in which Pittman starts to fall out of favor?

The conventional answer to that second question is “no,” and the Hogs will play in their first bowl game since the invention of the forward pass. Er, since 2016. Obviously, they were supposed to play in a bowl game in 2020, but COVID closed the book on that. Granted, it was a 3-7 team.

The simple substitute of 2 SEC games for 4 nonconference games suggests that improvement is imminent. It very well could be. With the promising signs of K.J. Jefferson on offense, I wouldn’t bet against that.

But what’s the most realistic path to failed expectations and a different tune in Pittman’s jukebox come 2022? It’s a few things.

Pittman, after the year he just had, is about as likable as chocolate. That’s not just fans. That’s media, that’s boosters, that’s administration. That’s the person who bumped into him without knowing who he was at the grocery store.

Pointing the finger back at any of those groups of people is an easy way for Pittman to go from chocolate to licorice. Sure, there are plenty of people who like licorice. There are also plenty of people who would rather eat their own shoe.

All signs point to Pittman not being that guy. Why that’s even worth addressing is because we haven’t really seen Pittman in these spots when he’s pinned into a corner. His team was an underdog every time it stepped on the field in 2020. When you coach a team that hasn’t won a conference game in over 1,000 days, the expectations couldn’t be lower.

With perhaps the exception of the Mike Woods transfer news, it’s basically been nothing but optimism surrounding the program since the 2020 season ended. So does that mean a 6-6 regular season would be a disappointment? If we’re being honest, it probably shouldn’t be. That would still likely entail at least 3 wins against Power 5 foes. Once upon a time, just 1 Power 5 win seemed like an impossible feat for Arkansas.

That’s why 5-7 feels like it would be a letdown. Not only would that likely mean missing out on a prime opportunity to beat a traditional power like Texas, but it would be a 2-6 SEC regular season.

And dare I say, it’s not totally far-fetched. Tell me there are 3 automatic SEC wins here:

  • vs. Texas A&M (in Dallas)
  • at Georgia
  • at Ole Miss
  • vs. Auburn
  • vs. MSU
  • at LSU
  • at Alabama
  • vs. Mizzou

I mean, those are 4 SEC road games against teams who will likely start in the AP Top 25, plus the neutral-site game against a likely preseason top-10 A&M team. The most realistic path to 3 SEC wins is sweeping the SEC home slate against Auburn, MSU and Mizzou.

If Pittman does that and gets Arkansas to a bowl game, those good vibes aren’t going anywhere. No big deal.

Easier said than done, though.

The scenario in which those first Pittman doubts creep in would include all these 3 things happening:

  • Uncompetitive vs. Texas
  • 0-4 start to SEC play
  • Head-scratching midseason transfer portal entries

That last one is especially important as we enter this new era of the transfer portal. If you’ve suddenly got starters or highly touted recruits on the 2-deep who up and leave mid-year, that’ll fall on Pittman.

There’s another element that’s worth mentioning, and if Arkansas were to struggle out of the gate, this would probably be at the root of those issues — not finding an answer at quarterback. Jefferson and Malik Hornsby both appear capable, but we have yet to see Pittman deal with a quarterback battle. He has Feleipe Franks to thank for that. It doesn’t necessarily all fall on Kendal Briles, either.

Go ask Jeremy Pruitt how easy it is to lose the faith of the fan base when you can’t figure out your quarterback situation. Pruitt was one of those guys who, after a Year 1 with such minimal expectations at Tennessee, could do no wrong for a bit. Everything Pruitt said was deemed the antithesis of Butch Jones.

So far, Pittman looks like the opposite of Chad Morris. They certainly handled adversity in different ways. Morris shuffled quarterbacks like playing cards and Pittman communicated in a way that players bought into.

Year 2, however, will be different. A new set of circumstances will present itself to Pittman. And while Year 2 improvement hasn’t necessarily proven to be a good indicator of future success for SEC head coaches, there is a bit of growth that any fan base should hope for, especially one who hasn’t experienced a bowl game in 5 years.

Growth for Arkansas may be linear or it may not. Plenty of SEC coaches have come into Year 2 with high approval ratings, only to watch that diminish within a matter of a few games.

Nobody expects Pittman to join that group. That’s a credit to the job he’s done so far. That’s why his boss extended him by hitting the reset button on his contract.

It’s fitting, in a way. Pittman’s future won’t be judged by his Year 1 performance. But is he still going to be treated with a different set of expectations in Year 2?

As Pittman would say, “YESSSSSIRRRRR!”