3 key advantages No. 7 Auburn has over No. 4 Georgia
It’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. It’s the first game of the 2020 season pitting two top-10 teams against one another and it’s the site of ESPN’s College GameDay. The Auburn-Georgia game ought to be the highlight of October’s opening weekend.
Both teams won their opener despite slow first-half starts. No. 7 Auburn might have one of the SEC’s highest ceilings but also the lowest floor among the contenders. No. 4 Georgia was a shoo-in for many out of the East, but until a QB settles in, that’s far from guaranteed.
Saturday’s game in Athens should be close, but 3 areas stand out that give the Tigers a slight edge and chance to end their 3-game losing streak to the Bulldogs.
Quarterback
Year 2 of Bo Nix is looking much better than Game 2 of whatever QB Georgia trots out (likely JT Daniels). Nix’s first half against Kentucky was a little slow (6-of-11 for 90 yards), but in the second half he displayed much of the growth that fans had hoped to see under new OC Chad Morris, finishing 16-of-27 for 233 yards, 3 touchdowns, and most important, 0 interceptions.
Auburn finished an SEC game without a turnover for the first time since it beat Texas A&M last September, and Nix now owns the nation’s second-longest streak without an interception (218 passes), trailing only Trevor Lawrence.
Nix looked mature. On several occasions he turned plays that would have been negative yardage, a sack or a jump ball last season, into smarter decisions that didn’t put the Tigers and their defense on their heels.
Perhaps no play better demonstrated his new-found composure than a 2nd-and-8 pass in the 3rd quarter when Nix stepped forward in a collapsing pocket. With a Kentucky defender draped on his back, Nix hit Eli Stove for a modest 12-yard gain.
@Zblackerby mentioned that he felt Nix looked like an NFL QB on his TD to Eli Stove. I submit this for your consideration. Motion presnap to ID soft zone outside, steps up in the pocket with good eye discipline, and delivers a dart with trash all around him. Legit pro stuff. pic.twitter.com/yEHWQ0U2HE
— Andrew Stanley (@SanAndreasAU) September 27, 2020
Georgia’s defense will undoubtedly deliver more pressure than Kentucky’s, especially as Auburn continues to rotate 7 guys through its offensive line.
The Tigers will also need to find a better option in the run game for Nix to maintain his success. Nix led the team with 34 yards rushing against Kentucky, and if the Bulldogs are able to solely focus on Auburn’s pass game, it could be a long day.
Meanwhile in Athens, it appears the Bulldogs are no closer to having a permanent starting QB than they were this time a week ago.
Monday’s news that JT Daniels had been medically cleared to play this weekend initially seemed like it would play a heavy into factoring on Saturday’s starter, but Kirby Smart was quick to halt that momentum.
“JT will be cleared,” Smart said. “But I don’t know how much that changes the picture in terms of reps and development. We’ll be looking at everybody across the board. JT’s got to be able to show us that he can function efficiently and do it with his knee.”
Of course, that could be nothing more than gamesmanship. Daniels is the most accomplished QB Georgia has. But if it is indeed back to one of the two guys who played vs. Arkansas, the logical choice would seem to be Stetson Bennett considering D’Wan Mathis’ 6 drives resulted in 5 punts, an interception and 0 points.
With Bennett’s most pressurized game probably being a 2018 MACJC championship game, compared to the experience Nix has in crunch time against the likes of Oregon and an entire SEC slate, Auburn has a clear advantage under center.
Kevin Steele and Co. vs. Bulldogs’ offensive line
Given the losses of Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson, it might seem like it would be a bit of a stretch to say Kevin Steele’s defense has the edge against Georgia’s offensive line.
Georgia needed 39 minutes to score a touchdown against an Arkansas defense that ranked 124th in points allowed in 2019. Part of the reason Mathis and Bennett (less so) struggled was an inability to get the run game going.
The Bulldogs’ offensive line was an ongoing project against the Hogs as OC Todd Monken rotated several players out of their normal spots in an effort to win the line of scrimmage. With no spring practices in a new offense to execute, the impact was clear.
Each of Georgia’s first 4 possessions began with a run of 3 or fewer yards, putting Mathis with less-than-ideal scenarios to move the chains.
It wasn’t until Bennett came in and found some success passing the ball that the run game opened up. Both of Zamir White’s longest carries of 13 and 20 yards came in the second half when Bennett was in and the offense was able to run more tempo.
Finding much success in the run game, however, could be a challenge. Auburn held Kentucky to just 145 yards rushing on 3.6 yards per carry, a year removed from having the 4th-best run attack in the nation averaging 279 yards a game and 6.4 yards per carry.
Aside from a Kavosiey Smoke 35-yard run for a score on the game’s opening drive, the Auburn front 7 settled in nicely, particularly in the red zone where it held the Wildcats to just 1 score on 3 tries (say what you will about the run at the end of the first half).
Twice in the 4th quarter with the game on the line, the Tigers’ defense forced 2 fumbles, one of which set up a short field for Nix and Seth Williams to connect on a 4-yd TD pass and a 22-13 lead.
Georgia’s receivers are more of a concern than Kentucky’s, but if the Tigers limit the run game and don’t give the Georgia QB time, that’s a moot point.
Seth Williams
By now, you’ve likely seen them. The plays speak for themselves
.
Seth Williams went 🆙 pic.twitter.com/kHeBAQKwBr
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 26, 2020
🗣 YOU GOT MOSSED!@AuburnFootball‘s @8_sethwilliams 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9tn1uD0kcg
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 26, 2020
Two incredible touchdowns. Two catches that only Seth Williams could make.
Circling back to the Nix-maturation point, note that even the possibility of these plays occurring last season probably wouldn’t have happened. Nix has more trust in his wideouts now and a better understanding of where to put his passes.
“It was off (Nix’s) back foot and he put it in the only place it could be,” Malzahn said of the first TD. “Seth went up and made an unbelievable play.”
Williams is in no way a shocking addition to the Auburn offense. In 2019 he had 59 catches for 830 yards and 8 touchdowns, but in a season with one of the deepest WR classes that included 3 SEC standouts who went on to be NFL first-rounders and a 4th who won the Biletnikoff Award, it was easy for folks outside of Auburn to let the 6-3 junior fly a little under the radar.
Williams finished Saturday with 6 catches for 112 yards and those 2 scores and will be the biggest weapon for either team this weekend, even with George Pickens lined up for the Bulldogs.
Pickens scored once on 4 catches against Arkansas, but a receiver only has value if there’s a QB who can get him the ball.
Williams will likely be matched up with Georgia’s Eric Stokes for most of the game, which should prove to be one of the more compelling individual matchups of the weekend.
While talent levels are obviously HUGELY different, a championship game at any level serves as “pressure” for a starting quarterback..The difference between Dwan and SB13 was purely confidence and comfort, no doubt D’Wan is the more physically gifted, It wasn’t Stetsons arm that galvanized the Dawgs..
Weren’t Nix and Williams on the team last year?
Auburn had a goose egg on the scoreboard through three quarters last year. (14 after four)
The UGA defense was also young last year, and is improved, as are Nix and Williams.
The dogs returned 80% of defensive production from 2019.
We’ll show up, just for giggles, and see what happens.
12 of 15
Nix and Williams had a pretty good games that day.
You act as if UGA had 30+ last year.. you had 21.
We’ll show up, your offense probably won’t, and see what happens.
1980.
This!
They had pretty good games? If having ZERO points through three quarters, and 14 total, is “pretty good”, what in the world is “bad”?
Nix threw a ton of passes, but it didn’t amount to much.
The offense isn’t just Williams and nix.. lol
Bad would be a zero points, lots of turnovers, zero catches, zero yards, etc. that didn’t happen. You act as if UGA is some world beater and putting up crazy stats.. pipe down puppy.
LOL.
Your quarterback isn’t fighting our quarterback.
Your quarterback has to go against our defense. That’s a big nope.
Our o-line will be good to go. Kevin Steele has never been a problem for Georgia’s coaches on any regular basis. I mean, it’s cool y’all like him, but we have Kirby. We’re good.
Seth Williams wants to be Georgia Pickens when he grows up.
35-17. Go Dawgs.
Guess your night time comedy gig was cancelled..
UGA has averaged less than 20 points vs Steele while at Auburn and hasn’t scored more than 30 ever. Pickens couldn’t hold Seth’s jock strap.. that’s just laughable.
Very well could be 35-17 but I don’t see your D having that many pick sixes.
UGA’s point average is less than 20 only if you don’t include the beating the Dawgs handed Tigers at the SEC Championship. But I can see why you’d want to omit and repress that.
It was 13-7 heading into the 4th.. not exactly a beating. Anyways.. back to your original comment. It includes 2016, both 2017 games, 2018 and 2019. 6, 17, 27, 27 and 21. Do the math.
Where are you getting your numbers? Georgia’s score in 2016 – 13, in 2017 – 17 and 28, in 2018 – 27, in 2019 – 21. 106 divided by 5 = 21.2, which looks like it would be more than 20.
2016 you didn’t score an offensive touchdown. It was a pick 6. So it’s 6 points not 13. The argument was Steele vs uga coaches. 6+17+28+27+21 = 99. Divided by 5 = 19.8 ppg for Ugas offense vs Steele.
Fair enough.
Who in the world would want to hold Seth’s jock strap?!?!?
That’s just nasty!
I’m sure UGA X would love to take a whiff..
Corch please stay away from the window ledges 10 p.m. Saturday night. Promise?
Corch, you are out of your mind. There’s no way either team scores more than 24 in this game and I really don’t see us putting 35 on AU’s defense. I like our chances in something like 20-17.
Gawjuh worships Kirby like Bammers worship their lord and savior nick saban. The difference is bama wins big and Kirby flounders. 1980. Based on how y’all played the worst team in the SEC this year ain’t it either.
Happy 40th anniversary dawggy
George Pickens has the best hands outside of Derek Stingley, Jr., but I think Seth Williams is the more more physical receiver. I’d rather have Williams in the end zone.
I’d rather have Pitts
Well, of course.
Should be a great game.
“pitting to top ten teams” Do you mean two top ten teams? Did you ever pass 5th grade English? Back to school boy.
AU is going to be a tough out. The offense isn’t a world beater, but probably in a better position right now than ours. The O-line doesn’t worry me as Luke made adjustments in the 2nd half and he will get them ready. I, for one, would like to see Bennett start and Daniels get some time. I am not sold on any of the three right now. It all comes down to will our defense completely shut down Nix and Co.
I still think Mathis will be in there. I have a feeling there will be some substitutions going on at QB throughout each quarter.
Don’t forget, Mathis can also go out to receive a pass on a trick play. We just need a back or receiver that can pass it to him.
I would say the QB is close to a toss up. I only say this because we don’t know who will start for UGA. Bo Nix has a full year under his belt but he has a new OC/offensive scheme as well. Stetson is a long time backup that seemed to know the offense week 1 and JT is a highly touted recruit that had an ok performance as a very young freshman before his injury early in his sophomore campaign. I think Kirby will have a plan to keep Nix on his heels and confuse him with multiple looks on defense. I would give the edge to Auburn but to me it’s only a slight advantage.
Auburns defense vs our O-line is the biggest concern to me. Our O-line is talented but they didn’t perform well week one. They weren’t good with run blocking or pass protection. Was that just first game jitters? I’m not sure. They played much better in the second half. Hoping they figure it out before Saturday. Advantage Auburn
Williams is obviously a good WR. Auburn fans are quick to point out he had a good showing last year. This is true although the entire game against Auburn was a “bend but don’t break approach” on defense so while he got yards it didn’t translate into points. I would say this is a wash. He’s a great receiver but we have really good DBs. Will we shut him down? Doubtful. Will he beat our DBs consistently? I don’t think he will. Just getting a catch isn’t necessarily a win for the WR. If the DB makes the tackle and limits the WR YAC than it can be considered a win for the DB. I think he has Kirby’s full attention and he will have a plan to limit him as much as possible.
Looking forward to the game. Go Dawgs!!
I actually think your OL and our DL match up well. I would say that would be a push IMO. Remember, Pittman knows UGAs OL like the back of his hand so I’m sure that played a difference when scheming.
Not sure I understand your theory on DBs vs WRs. If a guy has 200 yards receiving but only 20 came from YAC I would still say he won that matchup even if he didn’t score. There are a variety of different ways to score. Those catches can still lead to points via FGs or other TDs by another player. Our WRs as a whole vs your DBs is the matchup I’m looking forward to the most. It’s not just Seth. Schwartz is still good and Stove has been there forever.
Should be a fun, close game so we’ll see.
I guess what I’m saying is if you watch the highlights from last year. Almost every catch he made was an inside slant. On all but one of these catches he was tackled immediatly. The slant is almost impossible to defend in man coverage. The best result would be an errant pass or a tip that gets knocked in the air and picked off. Second best is to make the tackle and not allow any YAC. Williams got a lot of yards but his overall production was limited. We won the 2 or 3 50/50 balls thrown to him on the outside. He’s a great receiver. He is going to get his catches. If we can keep him in front of us and not allow him to beat us deep, that’s a win for UGA. I guess that was my point.
I gotcha. I guess I was saying the yards add up and eventually will turn into points, although hard against your defense.
I suspect Auburn’s offensive line rotation will come to a screeching halt against Georgia and they’ll go with their best five combination.
This game could go totally against the 6-1/2 line in Auburn’s favor if Georgia gives Auburn short fields off turnovers, or off just plain inability to move the ball on offense. Whoever is playing quarterback for Georgia, look for Kevin Steele to pressure and bait him into mistakes.
The idea that defense wins championships is a myth when there is no good offense to go with the great defense. And a great offense will beat a great defense.
If you look at the 2019 game statistics, Auburn outplayed Georgia offensively. Field position and the single Auburn turnover were the difference in the game. If Bo Nix has better ball security this year, and the one turnover is committed by Georgia’s quarterback, the outcome could be reversed.
If the same georgia offense that played arkansas shows up for this game I will take Auburn. The georgia D is great but Auburn will score some and if auburn turns them over the D can only withstand so much regardless of how good they are. I think LSU and UGA are very similar this year in terms of obstacles to overcome, loss of personnel, new coaches, new offense… Difference is georgia has slightly better personnel and a much better D. A 20-10 auburn win would not surprise me. Daniels could be a missing link I suppose but wont know until he takes a few snaps, if he takes a snap at all.
Only from certain statistical perspectives did Auburn’s offense outplay UGA’s. Going into the 4th quarter the score was 21-0. By the end of the game UGA still had more rushing yards and a (very slightly) higher overall average gain per play (3.8 vs 3.7). Auburn’s passing attack was more potent, though, impart because they attempted far more passes (50 vs. 28) Field position and the turnover absolutely impacted, but so did UGA’s soft defensive scheme in the 4th quarter and the offense’s inability to do much of anything, especially in the 2nd half.
Still, however, this Saturday’s game against Auburn will be a tough one for UGA no doubt.
So the UGA “soft defense in the fourth quarter” argument applies to the 2019 Auburn game too? I know Georgia fans like this trading time for points argument, but as someone who played safety and knows a little bit about defense, I don’t see it when watching Georgia.
What I do see is a defense that plays a relatively conservative style of gap assignment defense with little blitzing, from the first snap of the game. They play press man on the wide receivers, which is aggressive, but I went back and looked: Georgia was in press man on most of the plays throughout the fourth quarter. If Kirby were in fact playing soft coverage in games that ended up with 7 point margins, that would be pretty risky.
Yes, Georgia did outrush Auburn in 2019. And Georgia outplayed Auburn in the first half. But a game is four quarters and only the score at the end counts.
It’s four quarters unless you’re playing Arky it seems…
Find it odd no one gives Pittman and Odom any credit for Leghumpers first half woes. I think familiarity helped but that being said you are correct…at the end of four quarters all that counts is final score
Odom gets a ton of credit. But that doesn’t diminish how bad the offense was until the Arky defense got gassed.
So then a game isn’t four quarters and the score at the end doesn’t count? Ya kill me smalls, once again I was so sure I had that goalpost dialed in
Legs, you gotta love the flexibility these folks have. Sometimes the final score is all that counts and sometimes not.
I’m taking Auburn and I think that Steele has a little payback in mind. The lack of experience at quarterback for the pups will be taken advantage of by Steele and force the run.
Auburn 20-10
Payback?
You said 32-17 a few days ago. Is this your final answer?
Hate to say it, but Georgia should score more than 10 points. Somewhere in the range of 17-20 sounds about right. Auburn could be around 21-24 (I hope).
Looking forward to watching the game.
I look for the pups to abandon the pass early. Becoming a heavy run first. Nix will get 2 td’s and field position will go to Auburn and get two field goals. Steele will bottle up the pups forcing 3 and outs. Auburn will have a good punt returner getting them a few field goals. Just what I’m thinking.
Yeah, I think Kirby orders up bunched sets and Zamir White at the first hint of poor quarterback play.
I think he has to do that until Daniels is ready and if he puts him in to early and has a disastrous game that would be a travesty.
23-10 final! Lol
I respect you both. So know that I will take no pleasure in reminding you two of these predictions Saturday night when none of this ends up being true.
That’s my final. If Steele can’t stop the pups offense this year and give Nix a shot I don’t think they will for sometime. I’m sure Auburn is tired of losing a rivalry, that’s the payback
I think this game comes down to which DL can dominate the opposing OL. Intriguing matchups. Depth will also be important as this game almost always come down to who controls the fourth quarter.
When both teams are in the top-10 Auburn has a 4-1 record against the dawgs.
Vs. Kirby?
All time.
No, I’m as king what Malzahn’s record is vs. Kirby when both are ranked in the top ten. That’s what counts.
Just a fun fact. For those that like to know stuff like that. I’m not saying Auburn will win.