Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues with Auburn. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

In a way, it was fitting.

Gus Malzahn had a 6-4 regular season against an all-SEC schedule, which ended with him dancing in the locker room after beating MSU. Yet Malzahn was still paid $23 million to go away.

The back-and-forth tenure of Malzahn is over. There’s no more pro-Gus or anti-Gus. There’s no more debate about calling plays or not calling plays. There’s no more groans about a wildly expensive buyout and whether it’s worth paying. Eight years, 3 wins over Nick Saban, 2 division titles, 1 national title berth and on to the next one.

In stepped Bryan Harsin, the outside hire who spent 21 of the past 25 years of his life in Idaho. One can be further from the SEC — don’t sleep on Alaska — but not much. Harsin is being asked to get Auburn back into yearly contention. It isn’t to become the next Saban. The former Boise State coach is trying to do what Malzahn couldn’t — establish year-to-year consistency.

For all the things he did right, Malzahn never had consecutive top-15 seasons at Auburn. The floor was low, though the ceiling was high. What’s Harsin’s ceiling? Can he immediately recruit at an elite level in a cut-throat region of the country?

Time will tell. Malzahn’s successor at Auburn was never going to need to rebuild the program from the ground up. The foundation is in place. How sturdy is that foundation?

We’re gonna find out in a hurry.

Third time’s the charm?

For Bo Nix, that is.

His third offensive coordinator in as many years is Mike Bobo, who spent a year at South Carolina before Harsin poached him to join his staff. Bobo wants Nix operating under center more, and the up-tempo style that once made Malzahn a cutting edge coach figures to be a think of the past with Bobo.

At this time last year, there were questions about if Chad Morris was going to be exactly what the doctor ordered for Nix. By Week 3, it was clear that Morris wasn’t going to provide the remedy. Nix ranked No. 11 in the SEC in quarterback rating, he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and Auburn’s offense ranked No. 89 in FBS. It was, in every sense, a step back.

Now, Nix is being tasked with learning a new offense without his top 3 pass-catchers from 2020. Nobody returning had more than 97 receiving yards in 2020.

Even as the most experienced returning quarterback in the SEC, Nix has arguably the most pressure on him of any signal-caller in the league. Struggle out of the gate and he risks losing his starting job to LSU transfer TJ Finley, who joined the program over the summer. Three of Auburn’s first 6 games are against preseason Top 25 teams, and 2 of them (Penn State and LSU) are true road games. Nix has a career passer rating of 105.4 in true road games.

It’s now or never for the third-year starter.

Tank time

For all the questions about Nix, one thing we shouldn’t question is Tank Bigsby. Well, perhaps there is a question worth asking.

How good will Bigsby be in 2021?

Given what we saw from him as a true freshman, we could be talking about an All-American. His ability to break tackles and get to the second level is everything you’d want from a back. Once he started getting regular work, he showed just how dominant he could be. Does Bigsby have a 250-carry, 1,500-yard season in him? Staying healthy is the key to that.

Last year’s injury against Tennessee derailed what could’ve been an All-SEC season. Pro Football Focus had Bigsby has the No. 3 graded running back before that, yet he still finished No. 5 in FBS in broken tackle rate.

This year, Bigsby is working with the same offensive coordinator who dialed up looks for Kevin Harris, who had 1,138 rushing yards in 10 games as a first-time starter for South Carolina. Will Bobo’s offense yield even more success for the dynamic Bigsby? It certainly seems possible.

Derek Mason’s new chapter

I’m fascinated to see the 2021 version of Mason. No longer is he fighting the uphill battle of being the face of Vandy. He instead can go back to his roots of coaching up a defense, and the one he inherited should be pretty solid.

The secondary, led by Smoke Monday and Roger McCreary, should be one of the better units in the SEC. And with Zakoby McClain and Owen Pappoe at linebacker, Auburn is set up well on the back end.

The questions are about that defensive line. JJ Pegues made the switch to that side of the ball after dazzling the college football world as a 300-pound wild cat quarterback. Why was that move made? Pegues joined a group that needs depth after no shortage of turnover the past 2 years. Daquan Newkirk and Big Kat Bryant both transferred this offseason.

Can Mason dial up ways for Auburn to generate a pass rush? Or will this be a secondary that gets put in tough spots because of the lack of playmakers up front?

Whatever the case, I’m still a believer that Mason can have a major impact in Year 1 as Auburn’s defensive coordinator.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Akron (W)

Akron is 1-17 in the Tom Arth era. Just a hunch? Win No. 2 will not come at Jordan-Hare. This will be a nice way for Auburn’s new-look receiver room to get their feet wet. Demetris Robertson goes off in an easy win to kick off the Harsin era.

Week 2: vs. Alabama State (W)

I’d love to see a good amount of Finley in this one. Shoot, I’d love to see some Pegues wild cat action. Wishful thinking? Probably, though that has a better chance of happening than Alabama State beating Auburn.

Week 3: at Penn State (L)

This is when reality sets in. The first White Out in a packed Beaver Stadium since 2019? Yeah, that atmosphere will be electric. I don’t trust Nix, in Week 3 in that new offense, to go into Penn State and pull out a victory. Both coaches would be wise to take the ball out of their quarterback’s hands and instead, turn to their promising tailbacks. Bigsby and Noah Cain could be one of the better running back battles of the year, but on the road, I still expect Nix is going to be put behind the sticks a few too many times, and it’ll force a key turnover late.

Week 4: vs. Georgia State (W)

Don’t sleep on this one. Tennessee slept on Shawn Elliott’s team in the 2019 opener, and we all remember how that went. There’s a lot of experience on that GSU offense, but enough experience to pull off an upset in Jordan-Hare? I won’t go there. The Tigers should still have a major advantage at the line of scrimmage, and Bigsby should find enough running lanes to give Auburn a relatively comfortable victory.

Week 5: at LSU (L)

We’re still waiting on Auburn to win in Baton Rouge this century. Something tells me that’ll still be the case after this year, despite the fact that last year’s showdown was totally lopsided. I’m not sure that Auburn will confuse LSU’s starter (Max Johnson) in the same way it did with, ironically enough, Finley. Auburn’s only hope is Bigsby busting loose for a few big runs because it’s hard to imagine the wideouts getting separation on Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks. Well, at least in a post-Bo Pelini world. LSU’s redemption tour continues with a 2-touchdown win in the Tiger Bowl.

Week 6: vs. Georgia (L)

On one hand, there are some great individual matchups. We’ll get Bigsby vs. Jordan Davis and the talented Georgia front, and JT Daniels vs. that experienced Auburn secondary. But I can’t shake the image of Nix desperately trying to escape Adam Anderson and Nakobe Dean all afternoon. That’s the difference in this one. You need receivers who can get separation in a hurry against this Georgia defense. I’m not sure Auburn has that. And on the flip side, I don’t think Auburn can get home on Daniels, which proves to be a game-changer for the Dawgs.

Week 7: at Arkansas (L)

Yikes. It wouldn’t be ideal for Harsin to go into the bye week on an 0-3 start to SEC play and a 3-4 start overall. But I think that’s exactly what happens. I wouldn’t expect this to turn into a shootout, though I do think both tailbacks should have their fair share of success. This should be a big Trelon Smith game for Arkansas with so much attention on WR Treylon Burks. Arkansas shows up ready to roll after last year’s botched call on Nix’s spike, and the Auburn road woes continue.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: vs. Ole Miss (W)

A benched Nix makes way for Finley after the bye week. With their backs against the wall after an 0-3 start to SEC play, Bigsby and the Auburn ground game go off against Ole Miss. A bye week does him wonders and he takes over in what turns out to be a back-and-forth thriller. Matt Corral does everything in his power to keep Ole Miss alive, but he forces a late throw that gets picked off by Nehemiah Pritchett to lock up an Auburn win.

Week 10: at Texas A&M (L)

One thing I know? Mike Elko is going to load that box and dare Auburn to beat A&M through the air. To be fair, most teams are going to do that to Auburn this year. Most teams won’t, however, have the luxury of Elko at the controls with dudes like DeMarvin Leal and Jayden Peevy up front to take up space and free up linebackers, or just get in the backfield themselves. That’s the difference for A&M. Even against a desperate Auburn team, the Aggies stymie Auburn’s offense to keep their SEC West hopes alive.

Week 11: vs. MSU (L)

In a way, Auburn has the secondary depth to handle the Air Raid well. McClain and Pappoe are excellent at tracking down ball-carriers in the open field, which could negate those check downs to running backs that Mike Leach’s Air Raid often yields. But I think Zach Arnett’s defense shows up on a mission to force turnovers. Finley has another tough week and throws a couple of interceptions into the arms of Martin Emerson and Emmanuel Forbes. In a field-position game, that proves to be the difference.

Week 12: at South Carolina (W)

A revenge game for Auburn should be a relatively favorable matchup. I do wonder about JJ Enagbare and Jordan Strachan becoming mainstays in the backfield, but as long as Bigsby is still healthy, I think Auburn keeps it simple with the ground game. Will this be the Bigsby vs. Kevin Harris game to end the popular preseason debate once and for all? So many things can happen to stand in the way of that. I don’t think the Gamecocks will stand in the way of Auburn’s last-ditch effort to make a bowl game.

Week 13: vs. Alabama (L)

People forget that Auburn won each of the past 2 Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare. People won’t forget that because by the time this one rolls around, it’ll be used as a sell to make this game seem like it’ll be competitive. Or we’ll hear about the fact that the last time Auburn had a Year 1 coach in the Iron Bowl, “Kick 6” happened. Nope. Auburn could get 6 miracles and 11 Bigsbys, and that still might not be enough to string together scoring drives. Something tells me this will be the most lopsided Alabama victory at Jordan-Hare in a decade. It keeps Auburn from a bowl game for the first time since 2012.

2021 projection: 5-7 (2-6), 7th in SEC West

#WarEagle

I know. You think this is bananas. You want to know why I hate Auburn and probably love Alabama.

(It’s funny that there are people who think that because it actually makes the sport more interesting when Alabama loses, but that’s a discussion for another day.)

Well, think about it. Even if Auburn has one of the SEC’s better defenses and Bigsby lives up to the hype, there are 2 areas that will be Auburn’s downfall — the inability to stretch the field vertically and the lack of a pass rush. In this era of college football, you just cannot compete for conference titles by doing those things at a sub-par level.

This is going to be a trying year for Harsin. His patience will be tested. I have no doubt that his non-answers will frustrate those looking for some accountability. Will this year define him? No. Even at a place where buyouts have become a daily topic of conversation, Harsin won’t be going anywhere after Year 1.

But is there going to be a heightened sense of pressure on him to ramp up recruiting? Absolutely. Things are going to get interesting on The Plains.

Then again, when are they not?