Auburn football: Is there any way Auburn can shock Bama?
Hugh Freeze is still looking for that signature victory in his 1st year as head coach at Auburn.
It nearly happened against Ole Miss, his former employer, but the Tigers came up just short in a 28-21 loss. They just weren’t quite ready yet.
But that was a month ago and Auburn hadn’t lost since — until Saturday. A 4-game winning streak highlighted by 3 SEC victories, including 2 on the road, had lifted the Tigers out of the doldrums of a 3-game skid. But that all went down the drain in an uninspired and uninterested 31-10 loss to C-USA foe New Mexico State at Jordan-Hare.
Perhaps the Tigers were looking ahead to the Iron Bowl?
Already bowl-eligible once again at 6-5 (3-4 in SEC), Auburn appeared to have become a formidable foe, taking care of the bottom feeders in the conference. It appeared ready to challenge SEC West top-seeded Alabama in the Iron Bowl next Saturday (2:30 p.m. CT) at Jordan-Hare Stadium … until Saturday, a game that raised a lot of questions from the top of the program to the bottom.
Alabama (10-1), on the other hand, is on a 9-game win streak since falling at home to Texas. The No. 8 Tide has everything to play for, still in the hunt for a Playoff spot with a date against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game looming. But, as the old saying goes, “That’s why they play the games.” Remember, New Mexico State was a 25-point underdog.
Alabama is a double-digit favorite and certainly should win. If Auburn is to pull off the shocker, these 3 things must happen.
1. Keep Jalen Milroe in the pocket
The Tigers must keep the Alabama QB from beating them with his feet. One way to do that is to keep him in the pocket. Against LSU on Nov. 4, Milroe was able to escape the pocket and pick up big yardage down the field.
The LSU edge rushers continually overran the play and were blocked beyond the point of attack. That allowed Milroe to step up into the pocket and either make the throw or take off in Jayden Daniels-like fashion to make chunk-yardage plays.
Against LSU, Milroe rushed for a career-high 155 yards. If Auburn is to contain Milroe, it must keep him in the pocket, not overrun the play, and make him win with his arm.
The Alabama QB has proven he is capable of doing that. Milroe threw for 200-plus yards in 7 of his first 9 games this season, and in the past 3 SEC games, he has completed 66.7 percent of his passes (44-for-66) with 5 TDs and just 2 interceptions.
You have to pick your poison. And Auburn’s best shot appears to be keeping Milroe from becoming that dual-threat quarterback.
2. Auburn QB must be elusive
On the flip side, Payton Thorne must use his legs to extend plays and keep the Alabama defense off balance.
Historically, teams with mobile quarterbacks are the ones that have given Alabama trouble. And Thorne has displayed an ability to do just that. He rushed for 123 yards against Samford, had a 92-yard rushing effort against No. 1 Georgia and ran for 88 yards against Arkansas.
Thorne’s running ability has somewhat offset the conference’s worst passing game, although it has gotten better lately. In the past 3 conference games, Thorne has thrown for 587 yards and 8 TDs with only 2 interceptions, completing 67.1 percent (49-for-73) of his passes.
Thorne must be a true dual-threat quarterback if Auburn is to have any chance of pulling off the upset.
3. Have something left in the tank
Alabama will wear you down with its depth and conditioning. Auburn must have something left late in the game. The Tigers can’t compete with Alabama’s depth, so conditioning is a key. Holding some sort of lead heading into the latter stages of the game wouldn’t hurt, either.
That’s because through the first 10 games of the season, only twice (Texas and Arkansas) has Alabama been outscored in the 2nd half. During that 10-game span, Alabama has a combined scoring advantage of 172-62.
Alabama has trailed or been tied in 6 games this season, so jumping to an early lead is a possibility for Auburn. But holding onto any advantage it might gain will be the key if Auburn is to shock the Tide.
When Connor O’Gara does his preseason predictions next summer, will you guys PLEASE remember this game before replying and telling him he’s an idiot for picking Arkansas to beat LSU (or whatever, just an example).
This is a CRAZY SPORT, folks.
I love a good upset, but the result of this game did nothing to change the fact that O’Gara is an idiot.
Tried to tell the AU fans on here to be weary of New Mexico State. One was flashing visions of AU finishing strong the rest of the season, winning 10 games next year, then on to the playoffs to win it all the next. Auburn is not a deep or good football team period. The recruiting is getting better but those guys will be freshmen next year. AU has “one” player on scholly from a recruiting class from just a couple years ago. The transfers AU got for this season helped to get through the year. True team talent comes through recruiting and some seasoning. Gonna take a few years with the depleted roster Freeze walked in on but motivating your team to respect the ability of your opponent is also very crucial. Next weekend 48-3 and another embarrassment!!!!
Even NM State coach boasted that THEY totally won the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and Saturday Aub did not even have to go up against a very good Kevin Steele defense with Dallas Turner, Braswell and Lawson and a secondary with Downes Moore, McKinstry, Arnold etc. …….Aub OL #77 was outplayed badly by NMS DL and now he has to go up against an even better DL and LB’s He should have been flagged even more times than what he was called against him
Hello, and ALL this is going to be fixed in a week?
Auburn may shock Bama… in the first couple series.
If Chattanooga can’t, Auburn hasn’t a chance.
No.
Before Saturday, I would have said they could keep it competitive. Didn’t think they could win, but at least push Bama. Now, NMST will still be in their heads the first half and it will be a 4 score game in the second. If I were a betting man, and the line was less than 25, I would take Bama.
I think this will be better than expected. Two years ago was also supposed to be a ‘Bama runaway but Auburn led almost the entire game and it took a 97-yard two-minute drill for the Tide to send it into overtime after a miracle stop on 3rd-and-1 that would have won it for the Tigers. The Tide was looking ahead to Georgia that weekend while Auburn had nothing to lose; if Alabama does it again this year, expect a similar scenario.
After this game, it’ll either be “it’s just his first year as coach, we are rebuilding, what did we expect?” … or… “He really beat Bama his very first season with one of the biggest differences in talent density ever for an iron bowl. He’s going to make history at Auburn before he leaves”
Auburn has nothing to lose at this point, and everything is in front of them.
Kind of dumb to talk about conditioning one week before the games. If conditioning is not already there it will not magically show up on Saturday. But, you never know.