Auburn football: Is Bo Nix progressing or regressing?
On Monday Night Football a week ago, New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold was caught on a hot mic saying that he was seeing ghosts on the field. What he meant was that he was seeing New England Patriot players in places that they weren’t after looking at pictures of plays, something common for a young quarterback.
It might be safe to say that Auburn’s Bo Nix is suffering from the same fate.
The 19-year-old true freshman once again looked in over his head this past Saturday in the Tigers’ 23-20 loss to LSU, a game that, for many reasons, Auburn had every opportunity to win. Nix completed just 15-of-35 passes for 157 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Many of the yards and the TD came late. Mostly, he looked rushed and uncomfortable.
So the question has to be asked: After 8 games, has Auburn’s quarterback made progress or have we seen him regress?
I’m arguing it’s the latter.
Since his 335-yard outing against Mississippi State in which he completed 76.2 percent of his passes, here are his numbers in the past 3 games:
- 38-for-79 (48%)
- 469 yards
- 5 TDs, 4 INTs
- 1-2 W-L
Take out the 12-for-17 performance against Arkansas, a team with a defense that couldn’t stop anyone, and that completion percentage drops to 42%. There’s no sugarcoating 42%
It is apparent to most that, when Nix wants to take a chance on a wide receiver coming down for the ball, especially in the red zone, the memory of the 3 interceptions against Florida are still haunting him. Instead of giving his receivers an opportunity, these throws are now landing well out of bounds, a sign that he just doesn’t want to make a mistake. The one time he did try at the end of the first half, LSU’s standout corner Derek Stingley Jr. made an unbelievable play for the interception. We didn’t see another chance.
Some have suggested his longest completion against LSU, the sideline throw to Seth Williams, was actually an attempt to throw it out of bounds.
His spotty play of late could come down to confidence.
At the beginning of the season, after winning the job over Joey Gatewood and being termed the quarterback of the future for Auburn, he was brimming with it, especially in the 4th quarter against Oregon, when he made the throw to Williams for the game-winning touchdown.
Would he even attempt that throw now? I doubt it.
But it’s not just the long passes that are getting away from him. With the Tigers backed up against their goal line in the 3rd quarter Saturday, Nix missed an open Anthony Schwartz, who, had he been hit in stride, could have used his speed to go the distance for a touchdown. Balls were thrown behind receivers at an alarming rate. And miscommunication, which should not be happening this late in the season, are still plaguing the offense.
The run-pass option game that Nix was perfect to play in Gus Malzahn’s offense? That barely exists anymore.
We no longer see him keeping the ball on the RPO game and rushing for himself, at least not more than once or twice a game. He has deceptive speed, but is no longer using that as a weapon. His longest run Saturday was 6 yards. His longest run against Florida was 10 yards.
With the Tigers building somewhat of a running game against LSU — freshman D.J. Williams was outstanding, going for 130 yards on 13 carries — it should have been simple for Nix to feel more comfortable, even with 100,000-plus fans ringing his ears. Yet, here we are going into the last month of the season and, I ask you Auburn fans, do you feel comfortable with where the quarterback play is at?
Will you truly believe that Nix will be able to put up performances against Georgia and Alabama, both at home, that can help the Tigers win those games?
I don’t see it.
Yet Nix’s regression has become the latest casualty in an alarming trend with Malzahn. Since he became head coach in 2013, we have seen multiple quarterbacks regress under his watch, the best example being Jarrett Stidham. Stidham was terrific in 2017 but slumped in 2018 after being viewed as a potential 1st-round draft pick. It was shocking. Stidham fell to the 4th round and, now in the hands of Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, won the backup job to Tom Brady.
The list of names goes on. Nick Marshall wasn’t as effective in his second season at Auburn. Jeremy Johnson fell so hard that it was brutal to watch. Joey Gatewood arrived with Cam Newton comparisons but hasn’t developed enough to be trusted in a big moment.
Yet you can’t put all of the blame on Nix’s regression on Malzahn — and Nix certainly has the talent and time to rebound. But Malzahn has to help him through the growing process. Nix came in as a highly hyped recruit who was ready to go from Day 1 and some rough times were expected at the beginning.
As they say, though, he’s not a freshman any longer. Mistakes that were maybe acceptable in the first part of the year are not anymore. As it has been said ad nauseam throughout the first 2 months of the season, yes, Nix has a chance to be a good quarterback, maybe even special, but we are now in the latter part of his first season and there has been no evidence of him getting any better.
That is a disconcerting sign for Auburn.
Why do they always say “take this game out” or “except for this long run”. ? If you cherry pick you can make anyone look good or bad.
Agree 100%
Bo Nix is poorly schooled or prepared to play in the SEC. He should sit and watch and maybe learn.
Watch who and learn from who? The guy he beat out?
Pretty much. Lol
I don’t think he beat him out, his last name did. I like what I see from our back up and I hate we are going to lose him. He is better than Nix.
I don’t believe it is really regressing if in 2 out of 3 games are top 10 opponents and are in 2 of the toughest environments in all of college football. I think he is playing like a true freshman… There are going to be bright spots (especially against weaker competition) and rough patches when he is truly challenged. We are too quick to anoint or condemn young QBs based off a handful of games. Time will tell if he can develop and get better.
I agree. I think the Georgia and Bama games being at home will be a much better indicator. Auburn typically plays much better at home anyway, and he has seemed to play with a lot more confidence at home, granted against lesser competition. Although with adequate quarterback play we could easily be 8-0 right now, the season has gone about as expected. And honestly, we still have a really good chance to win at least one if not both of the Georgia and Alabama games. Going 1-3 against the gauntlet of Florida, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama was about what was expected. If we can go 2-2 in those then I’d say we exceeded expectations.
If Bo starts either game AU looses.
What do they loose?
BO KNIX SUCKS. JOEY GATEWOOD COULDN’T BE WORSE. WHY DOESN’T HE GET HIS SHOT. MAKZAHN BENCHES KALEB KIM AFTER ONE BAD SNAP, BUT KEEPS BO KNIX IN BAD PLAY AFTER BAD PLAY. WHY, BECAUSE HE IS A LEGACY OR BECAUSE MALZAHN IS TOO STUPID TO CHANGE THINGS UP. RHIA IS RIDICULOUS. I HAVE BEEN A LIFE LONG FAN ANS I AM 50 YEARS OLD. THIS COACH MAKES ONE STUPID DECISION AFTER THE NEXT.
I bet if you use all caps again, Gus will hear you through the computer screen.
Hey, 3 man, try finding the CAPS LOCK button on your keyboard, push it one time, and watch that light turn off. Thank you.
Kim never should have been the starter. He’s not strong enough to play in the SEC. He’s spends half his time in the QB’s lap.
Reasonable post. I agree.
Bo isn’t regressing, he just isn’t ready for this level of SEC play that he starts and fails badly (watch him panic and throw into the dirt) is Gus’s fault.
I agree. I’ve supported Gus until this year. The offense has looked unprepared most of the year.
Gatewood should transfer
Has he even gotten a chance in a game
Gatewood stays, Gus hits the Bus
Bo Nix is not ready for this level of play. He’s mechanics are horrible, his footwork is tiptoe, tap dancing and he does not square to set and throw or follow through. Most of what he completes are really “chuck and duck” and someone runs under the ball to make the catch.
Biggest crime is twice now as Nix melts down during the game, Malzhan comes to Post Game and says, we “never considered changing quarterbacks”. Say what???!!!???? He is paid 7 million $ a year to consider everything that puts his team in a position to win. If he said, we considered a change but decided against it would be one thing but never even considered it! Sham Coach. I have seen countless High School Coaches make better decisions.
Joey Gatewood has not been given an opportunity for meaningful snaps with the 1’s. He should not transfer,,he should stay and Gus should transfer!
I’ll start this post off by saying Nix has had some moments where he has not played well.. however he also hasn’t had a ton of help either. The middle of the o line has been weak, receivers have dropped balls and there have been several throwaways this year which is not great but is better than a sack or forcing a throw.
Like some of the posters have already said, we are too quick to jump on young QBs. It’s been 8 games against one of the toughest schedules in the country. He’ll be fine and continue to improve.
Jake Fromm through 8 games: 61.7% 13tds, 4ints, 158ypg.
Bo Nix through 8 games: 54% 12tds, 6ints, 182 ypg.
Yes, Fromms stats are better but Bo does not have the luxury have having Chubb and Michel. In that 8 game stretch he played 3 teams away from home in hostile environments. All 3 he was less than 60 percent and threw an interception in all 3. Not saying Bo will be Fromm but there is plenty of ball left to be played to determine what kind of quarterback he will be.
Excellent posts. It’s pretty obvious Stultz isn’t a Gus fan. How can anyone say Marshall regressed? All of his stats improved even though the team had to replace nearly every starter on offense and defense.
“The list of names go on”
One progressed his second year.
JJ was a bust.
Gatewood is still on campus.
Terrible article.
Quit making wxcuses for him. Either he can make plays or he can’t. I say he can’t ans should be benched. Malzqhn is stupid and should go and Gatewood should transfer to a school that plays Auburn and beat the brakes off them. He has been more than loyal and if the competition was as close as they say it was to start, then he deserved to be the first one to fail. Nix has failed and Gatewood still doesn’t get a shot. How dumb
I can tell you with 100% certainty that the race between Nix and Gatewood coming out of fall camp was not close.
Also thanks for being a good fan and hoping another team beats the brakes off of auburn.
This has been a down year for Fromm so comparing him to Fromm isn’t the best idea. I agree with the author that Malzahn needs to be better at creating gameplans around the QB he has; instead, it seems like he forces his style upon the QBs which is why so many have struggled under the Gus Bus. At Bama, we’ve had all kinds of different QBs with different talent levels, but we adapt to fit their strengths and it works. Gus could learn from that.
That was Fromms first 8 games in his career vs Bo’s first 8.
What would say is Bo’s strength between passing and running? He’s not forcing his style on him.. if that was the case he would be keeping the ball more than he has.
I don’t know Bo’s strengths, but he just needs a coach that’s willing to identify what he does best and build off of that. With Gus it’s always seemed like he’s forcing guys to run his system, at least that’s what’s been said about him for years. It seems easy enough for other programs to get what they can out of guys at the QB position, but Gus seems to continuously have trouble getting solid production out of the guys he has. It shouldn’t be this hard.
“ but we adapt to fit their strengths and it works. Gus could learn from that.”
So you criticize Gus for not adapting to his strengths yet you don’t know his strengths. Interesting.
The kid is 8 games into his career and has played well except when playing in two of the toughest environments in the country.
Glad the coaches at Bama adapted to Jalens strengths in 2016 against Washington and Clemson. Same with several games in 2017 on the road and in the playoffs.
It’s not my job to know Bo Nix and develop a gameplan/system that suits him, but clearly Gus is not capable of doing that. Every QB he’s had since Marshall has struggled to be consistent or even competent.
Bo’s completion percentage and accuracy have been very sub-par by median college standards across the season. That’s troubling and it’s a sign that either he’s not very good or Gus is not putting him in the best position to succeed. Pick one.
Bama (which doesn’t have an OC running the team) has done a great job of finding ways to win with mediocre QB talent (Jake Coker, Greg McElroy). I don’t even know what you’re trying to say about Jalen because it makes no sense, but the guy was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year as a true freshman and went to back to back natty’s. What has Gus the OC done? The one thing that should be good about Auburn is the passing game, and it’s always the weak spot. Tells you something about the HC.
Then don’t criticize someone if you don’t have the answers either. How do you know he’s not playing to his strengths?
Sean White led the SEC in completion percentage in 2016.. I would say that is competent and consistent.
The kid is 8 games into his career and you expect him to be Dan Marino. Give me a break.
Greg played 1 game his freshman year. Coker was a backup his whole career except one year.
Did Jalen struggle against tough defenses or in hostile environments? Yes including his sophomore year. That is what I’m saying.
“The one thing that should be good about auburn is the passing game” … is this your first year of watching a Gus Malzahn offense?
I know he’s not playing to his strengths because his numbers are bad and they’re struggling. Don’t have to be an expert to see that.
What is this about Sean White’s completion percentage? He had 9 TDs in a season…which is why he ultimately lost his job. That White/Johnson/Franklin era was a disaster and showed the Gus has no idea what he’s doing, can’t evaluate QB talent and can’t get production out of the guys he has.
True freshmen at big programs are starting more and more frequently, and are having alot of success. If Nix isn’t in that boat then it’s a bad sign. Maybe that’s unfair, but that’s the way it is now.
Jalen may have had struggles, but he won SEC OPOTY in his first year. Is Nix gonna do that? Even close?
How do you know know he isn’t playing to his strengths when you just stated that you don’t know his strengths?
You said competent and consistent. I would say leading the sec is completion percentage is both but you change the narrative how you see fit. I would also say that is productive.
So 6-2 as a true freshman playing against the toughest schedule is not success?
Yes Jalen was OPY but he had struggles just like Bo has had. No one is saying Bo should be OPY as a freshman, that is rare.
Truth, Nix is an excellent QB when he has time to throw and the running game is working. That hasn’t been the case against Florida and LSU. I put that on the OL as much as anyone.
Doesn’t matter what happens. In 4 years Bo Nix will be the same as he is right now, a deer in headlights. Gus cannot develop a QB plain and simple. I get the kid is a freshman and all but if not for busted coverage against Oregon he doesn’t have a TD pass in the opening game. Only reason he starts and plays is because of the Nix family name. Gatewood should have been playing by now in my opinion.
Wow, the first time I have ever agreed with an Alabama fan, but I totally agree with you. Malzahn is an idiot and he wastes the talent that we have on our team, every years. Enough is enough. He should go away and sabotage some other team. We do not want him here anymore.
What else will happen in the next 4 years, Mr. Fortune Teller?
Auburn will still have Gus as a Head Coach and still be a below average team. Good enough prediction for you?
That’s all you have?
Also he threw 2 tds in the opening game and only one was a busted coverage. Bo realized it and called the play.
I was wrong and stand corrected. One TD was busted coverage the other was 1v1 coverage. You are honestly ok with Malzahn being your head coach at Auburn? Your ok with your QB throwing for roughly 50% completion rating? If so then enjoy being mediocre.
Never said I was happy or okay with it. Would I like to be better? Sure. But I’m realistic. I understood what we had going in. Still have a chance to go 10-2 with all games at home. Most pegged us at 7-5 or 8-4 with that schedule.
Most still have you pegged going 8-4 with this schedule. A win against UGA or Bama would be a pretty big upset at this point.
FPI has us as a 58.9% chance to win against UGA.
Bo has great potential. He is not a freshman SEC QB starter. It will take another 8-12 games and tutoring to get him to get him to a top tier SEC QB but he will get there. He is not naturally built to fit the Malzahn offense model but the talent to win big is there.
I am a Bama fan but cheer for Auburn (when not playing the Tide) because of my grandson. Honestly, I have yet to see Malzahn, regardless of who his OC has been, have a QB improve. Over the off season Patrick will be able to help Bo so let’s look at him next season. But right now the Dawgs and Tide are bringing challenges that Bo will have difficulty with. Just saying.
There are two types of people in this comments section. The people who can see the writing on the wall with Malzahn, and those who are blind.
The guy is not an offensive guru. You can make all sorts of excuses, but it ultimately falls on him. Why is the O-line so terrible? Who is responsible for recruiting, for player development? Why is QB play so woefully inconsistent since 2013? Why have so many highly touted 4 and 5-star players left the team?
Listen, Auburn should be 8-0 right now. Our defense is national championship-caliber. But Malzahn is the problem. Malzahn has always been the problem. Bo Nix will not improve so long as Malzahn is coaching him. So … maybe Auburn beats UGA, who knows. But the best we do this year is 9-3. 9-3 for what, the 6th highest paid football coach in the country? Is Auburn getting its money’s worth? Absolutely not.
Auburn should have called Malzahn’s bluff when Jimmy Sexton said Arkansas wanted him. Auburn should have said “oh, okay, well, we can help you pack.” Now we’re stuck with him. Malzahn knows that Auburn is his ceiling. He’s not going to move up in the world past Auburn. But Auburn can do better than Malzahn.
Watching the replay of the game last night, I have to say there were a lot of plays which could have made a big difference where Nix simply missed the receiver. Apparently, Malzahn doesn’t think Gatewood can make the throws either and Nix is his best choice. There were some catchable passes that were dropped, also. The pass catching drills LSU put in place in the off=season has really paid off.
To Malzahn’s credit, he had his team in position to make plays last Saturday that weren’t made; he had a fairly well thought out offensive game plan in place that would work (if executed). It was much better thought out than the “no plan” Les Miles would roll out every other Saturday when he was at LSU.
With that said, Malzahn is still overpaid and I was shocked when the contract was announced. He’s better than average, but he’s not an elite coach.
Everyone knows it was a stupid contract and that Gus is overpaid. 2 of the 3 people responsible for it are gone. Gus could go 11-1 and the same people would still want him fired. They pounce on any loss or bad win regardless of the circumstances. I’m not a Gus believer or apologist. But, he hasn’t done a terrible job this year. He put too much faith in a freshman QB or the guy he brought in to develop him. It seems like a waste of a great defense, but the offensive side of the ball is average at best. Going 9-3 with the talent and schedule he has is a good year.
Bo is a good QB, not great. But with the bad coaching he’s getting, he is regressing.
What everyone seems to forget is that, if Malzahn could develop talent at quarterback, we’d have an experienced junior QB leading the team right now. Except that Malik Willis is no longer on the team, because after the spring he was only fourth on the depth chart, behind a true freshman, a redshirt freshman, and a baseball player. And now Gatewood has apparently left the team as well. Look, nobody wants to see Auburn have a vertical downfield passing attack more than me, but it’s just not there this year. The O-line can’t pass block, and Nix is a deer in the headlights back there. Yet Malzahn keeps calling these slow-developing, 5-step drop pass plays, and he’s getting killed. It stymied our offensive production against UF and LSU, two games we should have won. Why not run the kind of pass plays these teams beat us with; i.e., quick slants off the line, quick backshoulder throws to the sidelines? Short throws with minimal reading of defenses, to take the pressure off Nix, and quickly-executed plays, to take the pressure off the offensive line. But Malzahn refuses to incorporate those kind of plays, at least not on a regular basis. All too often, it’s a predictable two yard run up the middle on first down, eventually leading to third and long, putting too much on the shoulders of a freshman QB. I’ve staunchly supported Gus up to this point, but wasting this national championship-level defense on a punchless offense is too much to stomach.
So it’s malzahns fault that Willis was 4th in the pecking order?
I am a die hard Auburn fan and I really hate that we are loosing our backup quarterback. I think he should have been the starter but the name Nix got him the job. He has been jumpy in the pocket from the beginning and doesn’t take his time to throw to his guys. We should have beat LSU but when he can’t throw the ball or run the ball it is hard to do. Malzone should have taken him out and put our other guy in. Instead he embarrassed him on national TV when he was going in he grabbed him and kept him off the field and put Nix back in. BAD DECISIONS GUS!!!