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Hugh Freeze claims Auburn would beat Arkansas 9-out-of-10 times: ‘That’s what’s hard to take’
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Hugh Freeze had some interesting comments about the Arkansas game on his weekly Tiger Talk show on Monday night.
Freeze said he was frustrated by the 24-14 loss to the Razorbacks, but indicated that he felt his team was unlucky when it came to the result.
“I love Sam Pittman and I hope he wins the rest of his games,” Freeze said. “But I’m telling you that the hard truth is that if we play them 9 more times, we’d beat them 9 more times. That’s what’s hard to take.”
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That may seem like a conceited statement from Freeze, but the math actually backs him up in this case. According to post-game win expectancies calculated by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Arkansas had just a 6.8% chance to beat Auburn on Saturday. That stat suggests Freeze is actually underselling how often Auburn should have beaten Arkansas.
Auburn lost this game because of poor ball security. The Tigers turned the ball over 5 times and lost the turnover margin 5-2. However, Auburn largely out-played Arkansas on a down-to-down basis. Auburn averaged 7.57 yards per play on offense while Arkansas was at just 4.66 in that category.
Auburn will try to get back on track this weekend as it takes on Oklahoma.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
