Skip to content

Ad Disclosure

Auburn Tigers

Ranking SEC teams ATS: Gus Malzahn no longer a Vegas wizard

Christopher Smith

By Christopher Smith

Published:

Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.

Gus Malzhan and Auburn made early backers happy — and rich — last season, guiding a team picked fifth in the SEC West before the year to the national championship game.

One Auburn fan nearly turned a $100 futures bet into more than $50,000, famously refusing to hedge.

Malzahn was a Vegas wizard his first two seasons as a head coach (including at Arkansas State in 2012), and entered the Thursday night game at Kansas State earlier this season at 22-6 ATS.

That was the high-water mark, as the Tigers have tumbled against the number since. Since clobbering LSU, Auburn is 1-3 ATS for a combined +/- of -48.5. On Saturday, as a 22-point favorite at kickoff, Auburn lost to Texas A&M by a field goal. Currently a two-point road dog against Georgia and an eligible Todd Gurley, Auburn looks like a scary team to back as a gambler right now.

Meanwhile, Arkansas took over the ATS combined +/- lead as Ole Miss now has lost three consecutive games in Vegas, barely failing to cover a kickoff line of -49.5 against Presbyterian.

The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Georgia is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Bulldogs are +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.

Team ATS Combined +/- ATS Record
1. Arkansas +78 7-2
2. Ole Miss +76.5 6-3-1
3. Tennessee +46 5-4
4. Georgia +40.5 5-4
5. LSU +31.5 5-4-1
6. Mississippi State +24.5 5-4
7. Missouri +18 5-4
8. Alabama +10* 3-5*
9. Kentucky +7 6-4
10. Florida +7 4-4
11. Auburn -9.5 4-5
12. Texas A&M -11.5 4-6
13. Vanderbilt -56 5-5
14. South Carolina -59 2-7

*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.

The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Alabama’s average Vegas line is minus-19.7, highest in the conference.

Mississippi State, the nation’s No. 1 team for many weeks now, finally has moved into a tie for third based on the team’s average line of 15.3, but just for one week, as the Bulldogs are more than a touchdown underdog at Alabama this week.

Vanderbilt, meanwhile, now is an underdog by an average of more than one touchdown per game, courtesy of a line of +14.5 against Florida. The Commodores lost by 24 points, ending a stretch of 5-1 ATS.

Team Average Line Biggest Line
1. Alabama -19.7 -46.5 vs. Southern Miss
2. Auburn -15.6 -34 vs. San Jose State
3. Mississippi State -15.3 -44.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin
4. Georgia -15.3 -42 vs. Troy
5. Ole Miss -13.9 -49.5 vs. Presbyterian
6. LSU -11.3 -43 vs. New Mexico State
7. Texas A&M -11.0 -47 vs. Lamar
8. Florida -10.1# -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan
9. South Carolina -8.4 -37.5 vs. Furman
10. Missouri -7.4 -26 vs. South Dakota State
11. Arkansas -3.3 -40.5 vs. Nicholls State
12. Kentucky -0.6 -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin
13. Tennessee +3.9 -26.5 vs. Chattanooga
14. Vanderbilt +7.7 -20 vs. Charleston Southern

#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.

The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.

Texas A&M has played six SEC games this season. Five of those represent the highest over/under all year for the opponent, including Auburn on Saturday. The Aggies and Tigers combined for 79 points, easily over the posted total of 69.5.

A&M has faced an average over/under of 67.4 to lead the conference. Auburn (61.5) and South Carolina (59.3) face consistently high totals as well, but thanks to shoddy defense and capable offenses, have gone over the total a combined 12 times in 17 games.

Georgia and Florida also have gone over with regularity — topping the posted total a combined 15 of 17 games.

Team Average Over/Under Biggest Over/Under Over/Under (Results)
1. Texas A&M 67.4 76.5 vs. Lamar 4/6
2. Auburn 61.5 69.5 vs. Texas A&M 6/3
3. Arkansas 61.3 73.5 vs. Texas A&M 5/3
4. South Carolina 59.3 65.0 vs. East Carolina 6/2
5. Mississippi State 58.3 73.5 vs. Texas A&M 4/4
6. Georgia 56.1 64.0 vs. Troy 8/1
7. Missouri 55.3 71.5 vs. Indiana 3/6
8. Ole Miss 53.6 64.0 vs. Texas A&M 3/6
9. Tennessee 53.3 59.5 vs. Arkansas State 3/5
10. Alabama 53.0 63.0 vs. Texas A&M 4/4
11. Kentucky 52.7 59.5 vs. Mississippi State 6/4
12. LSU 51.2 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State 4/6
13. Florida 49.2# 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan 7/1
14. Vanderbilt 49.1 59.5 vs. Old Dominion 5/5

#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.

Christopher Smith

An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.

You might also like...

2024 RANKINGS

presented by rankings

Read our Privacy Policy, Terms and Conditions, Cookie Policy and

© 2025 Saturday Down South. All rights reserved

We do not target any individuals under the age of 21. We support responsible gambling. If you feel like you're losing control over your gambling experience, call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA, WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-888- 532-3500(Virginia) 1-800-522-4700 (NV, TN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, TN), 1-855-2CALLGA (IL), 1-800-270-7117 (MI). global.footer.legal