SDS Roundtable: Auburn's over/under is 8.5 wins. How many games will the Tigers win?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: How many games will Auburn win in 2020?
A bit of background …
The SEC were an amusement park, Auburn would be, by far, the roller coaster everybody wanted to ride.
Up, down, sideways, upside-down, back up, free-fall … all at 70 mph.
Buckle up, boys and double-check those safety straps.
In the past decade, Auburn went 14-0 … and 3-9. The Tigers beat Alabama 4 times (more than anybody else), won 1 national title and very nearly another. They also lost at least 3 SEC games 7 times.
It’s awesome entertainment … unless you’re an Auburn fan. At this point in the Gus Malzahn tenure, they’d probably prefer the steady view from the SkyTram, high above the drama.
What will 2020 hold? Our staff weighs in on how many games Auburn will win.
Jon Cooper, SDS co-founder
If there’s 1 team that may have the over/under too high at 8.5, it would be Auburn.
With many significant losses on defense, it’s only rational that that group takes a slight step back. Sure, there’s plenty of talent, but the disruptors are gone and controlling the line of scrimmage isn’t a safe bet.
I would go with 7 to 8 wins in 2020. I would count Alcorn State, UNC, Ole Miss, Southern Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas and Umass as games the Tigers should win. That leaves tossups against Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, LSU and Alabama. Do you see 9 wins there?
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
Under.
This is based on a couple of things. One is that even if Auburn had a full, normal offseason, I’m not buying any Chad Morris stock right now. I fear that it’ll be a bad fit with Bo Nix throwing the ball more behind an inexperienced offensive line. No longer does Auburn have that all-world defensive line to prevent elite teams from controlling the tempo. That’ll be huge.
Even though the Tigers beat a pair of Pac-12 contenders in consecutive years to kick off nonconference play, I’m not convinced they’ll fare as well against a talented UNC team with Mack Brown. And in SEC play, trips to Georgia and Alabama with home games vs. improved Texas A&M and defending national champion LSU (with that loaded defensive line) could prove to be too tall of a task to get back to 9 wins.
Michael Bratton, News editor
Auburn and the under is one of my favorite bets this offseason. After what I’ve seen from Chad Morris the previous 2 seasons, his offense will be around 20% installed by the Iron Bowl. Kevin Steele is one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation, but his unit is losing a ton this offseason and the group is likely to take a step back on the field as a result. I’m not even convinced Auburn makes a bowl game next season unless they have a great APR and earn that coveted 5-7 slot.
Take the under when it comes to Auburn.
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
At Ole Miss in Week 3 will be a sneaky tough game for a team with a lot of key positions to fill on defense. I don’t envy Kevin Steele having to figure out how to stop John Rhys Plumlee.
Elsewhere on the schedule, I see them losing at Georgia, at Alabama and splitting the Texas A&M/LSU home games in some fashion. Playing in the SEC West is always brutal. When you have to rebuild a defense on the fly, it’s even tougher.
With the over/under set at 8.5 wins, I’ll take the slight under and predict that the Tigers go 8-4 in the regular season.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
I wish I knew. I don’t. Just when I think I have figured out Auburn, its evil twin arrives.
Because every instinct I have says the Tigers will go 8-4, they’ll either finish 9-3, or 7-5 or worse.
I’m not sure they beat North Carolina. Sam Howell is better than Bo Nix, and Auburn’s defense won’t be able to get after Howell like last year’s defense harrassed Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Traveling to Georgia and Alabama won’t be fun. Auburn hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since the Cam-back in 2010. It hasn’t won in Athens since 2005.
Ultimately, this comes down to whether I believe Bo Nix is good enough to beat LSU and Texas A&M. A little bit like Shea Patterson, I think Nix is a lot of fun to watch, but I’m not exactly sold that he’ll have a big enough year to overcome some of the defense’s issues. I think they just miss the cut at 8-4.
I’m just glad the game with UGA is in Athens this year.
I hope that by week six, our offense is well on its way to gelling as a cohesive unit.
That does play a big factor
Even with Auburn rolling the UGA AD to get this game moved to earlier in the season with nothing in return, they will still likely lose to both UGA and Bama. They still owe us a home game.
Such dire predictions. Surprising.
I love all the negativity and doubting. That means Auburn will go 15-0.
Nah, they’ll start 7-0 and then tailspin with losses to the likes of MSU or somebody like that. Just enough to scare the bejebees out of all of us.
Once Gus gets fired, Chad will take over due to being cheap and will not get anyone else since it will be too expensive to get.
Fascinating the head coach in waiting would be Chad Morris and not Kevin Steele. Oh right, no knowledge of football because Missouri etc etc.
So UGA is losing to AU then? Finally.. lol.
Push. They’ll win exactly 8.5 games.
LOL
I’d put the over/under on the duration of Chad Morris having complete control of Auburn’s offense at .5 seasons.
I think you meant to type “.5 games” but I’m still taking the under.
LOL
I’ll take the under either way.
I could see the continuity at Kentucky being a bigger problem for Auburn than Miss State. I don’t think anyone truly knows how LSU will respond after all the changes in starters and coaching. If I had to bet, I’d take the under on Auburn.
No one saw LSUs run last year! Anything can happened! Look at it this way, Missouri won the east two times! Again anything can happened. With the unusual start of the season with no spring games and practice is being help out it is more likely it will be an odd year for college football in general. Again anything can happened.
While it is true that anything can happen, there were indicators of LSU’s success prior to 2019. It’s not like it just magically occurred. They had many years of elite recruiting classes (especially WRs), a very talented QB, elite DC, and a passing game coordinator whose NFL success at least hinted at CFB success. I agree, though, this season (if it does occur) is hard to predict at this stage of the preseason.
LSU is in the same boat as of last year. Not a whole lot difference from last year. So why the change? It was not predicted that LSU would run away with the title last year.
No it wasn’t predicted that they would, but they objectively had the pieces in place to make some noise, and they did.
LSU seems to have most pieces in place again this year. Arguably the best returning receiving corps in FBS, with Arik Gilbert joining ranks – he’s going to make a difference. Brennan doesn’t have to be Burrow and Linehan doesn’t have to be Brady, but the O line does have to step up, stay healthy, and give Brennan opportunity. I think the performance of the O line and Brennan define our season. Not gonna replace Clyde at RB this year but we still have enough talent there to make it work and keep defenses honest with Curry and Davis-Price. Not worried about the D any more – Pelini’s a master, and the overall talent is proven. I can’t wait to see Jabril Cox play in the SEC, how/where JaCoby Stevens fits in, and especially how Stingley follows up this year.
2020 LSU may not be *as* loaded as 2019 LSU, but we’re still top tier. IMO execution and health will be the keys.
While I think my Wildcats will be a tough out for everyone this year, the AU game is at AU… don’t know if that changes your analysis.
Think positively.
We are riding a one game winning streak at Auburn.
I’m on the over. Last year’s schedule was much tougher than this years schedule. Let’s chalk up losses to @Uga and @Bama, equivalent to @LSU and @UF last year. I am going to chalk up wins for @OM, @MSU, UK, Alcorn State, Southern Miss and UMass. That is 6-2. UNC replaces Oregon, which I believe will be a win. That’s 7-2 with home games vs LSU and A&M. I see at least a split here to go at worst 9-3.
Now, as far as personnel goes, yes Brown and Davidson are gone. But Big Kat and Truesdell return on that line. I trust Garner and Steele enough that there won’t be as big as a drop off as some think. The entire linebacker corps returns as well as 3 of the 5 starters in the secondary. I don’t think the defense will have a huge drop off. The offense returns the top 3 pass catchers and a returning starting QB. DJ Williams was the starter the last few games so the departure of Boobee “Fumbling” Whitlow will not be a big deal. OL will be a work in progress but it has been that way the last 2 years. We returned everyone last year and people thought it would be a strength and it looked like they were worse.
I am for the under and seeing Gus getting fired half way of the season and probably Chad Morris taken over as head coach the res of the season. Possible be the permanent replacement for the following year.
You’re a terrible troll
How come many Auburn fans wanted Gus gone? I have seen that almost every year!
There’s always parts of fanbases that want a change. If they were going to fire him they would have done it after 2015 or 2018.. they didn’t. Chad Morris will never be the HC at Auburn. So Gus gets fired halfway and Morris is a possible candidate as a replacement.. give me a break troll.
I am wondering why was Gus hired as an OC? No one would have hired him! Even Arkansas fans were laughing!
Gus is the HC.. He hasn’t been hired as an OC in a decade..
Meant to say Chad hired as an OC.
Sure you did troll..
I have seen Arkansas fans laughing so hard and kept on laughing and did not even want Gus at Arkansas for what he did to the State of Arkansas and to the University of Arkansas!
Also some Auburn fans wanted Arkansas to hire Gus!
Arkansas wanted Gus. Auburn wanted Gus. Gus wanted Auburn. Now Arkansas is mad their hometown man left them out to dry and “disown” him.. it’s comical. Like Missouri football.
Why the lies? There are post that showed Auburn fans wanted Gus gone and tried to sweeten the deal with Arkansas fans to get Gus and Arkansas fans rejected it and laughed at Auburn fans.
ever go to SECRant? That is where some of your Auburn fans have posted there about getting rid of Gus.
Then why don’t you just troll over there? No lies in my posts. I even said “parts of fan bases always want a change”
rest*
6
Well thanks
Auburn will lose 4+ games. It’s inevitable.
We’ll beat North Carolina, maybe Georgia, probably LSU, if the Iron Bowl were in Auburn again we’d beat y’all too. But since y’all got home, it’s an L
They probably will not be as good on defense as last year but they will still be a cut above average because of Steele. They are also replacing 4 starters on the o-line which is usually not easy. An AU poster did point out how bad the line was last year after returning so many starters from the year before. The bar is set pretty low so maybe they will improve from the last 2 years. Since Gus averages 4 losses a season I would take the under.
I’m still trying to figure out how they are going to win that .5 game but they may beat us so bad that they will just add a half game to it.
Trust me, y’all will do better vs us than you think. Y’all have a pretty decent offense. Auburn doesn’t do well against dual threat QBs sometimes
Cmon buddy! Study up, Kentucky is gonna have a shot against anybody this year.
Since all the writers said under I’m going with over. At least 9 maybe 10. Auburn always seems to do good in “us against world years”. I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat us. Rivalry is known for visiting team having success.
My heart will be pulling for Auburn in Athens but my brain says don’t get my hopes up. Lord Saban has to age out of coaching some day, but I think his new S&C guys have him rejuvenated and excited. That not good for everybody else.
My lack of belief in Kellen Mond and Jimbo Fisher says nine wins for Auburn. But the history of Gus argues for eight.
There is indeed a reason they play the games.
I’ll take 11 wins with a loss to Bama.
So will I.
Thank you, someone actually agreeing with me lol
Loosing the offensive line isn’t that big of a hit … did you see our offensive line play last year? That squad was terrible. Zero cohesion.
I’m not saying offensive line play will be better this year … only there won’t be a drop off because it was already bad.
On the defense, I don’t think the dropoff will be as huge as these writers think it is. Yes, we lost some good players, but it’s not like they were the ONLY players worth anything on the defense. Steele has consistently recruited quality players for years now. In fact, our most recent recruiting class is loaded with a bunch of 4 star defensive players … and that’s how it has been really since Muschamp.
So yes, losing Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson (among a few others) will be felt, it won’t be felt that much. The guys moving into the starter roles for Brown and others have a lot of experience already.
All that to say, I think our defense will, once again, be our strength. Our offense will be atrocious as usual.
I’m not buying the hype of UNC yet. I think Auburn wins that one.
The games Auburn probably will lose are: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and pick one of the following: Miss State, Kentucky, Texas A&M.
I think 8-4 is our ceiling. We possibly do worse, but we won’t do better.
I have Auburn winning the West with wins over both Georgia and Alabama. Problem will be if they can beat LSU and A&M (possible letdown game for whatever on God’s given earth’s reason).
10-2 (2nd place SEC/W) by head to head loss to LSU & maybe to A&M..
Take some Tylenol for that fever, young man. Gus will underwhelm, per usual. Beat GA and Bama yet fight to overcome A&M with Kellen (INT) Mond? Give me a couple of those Tylenol’s while you’re at it, my side is hurting from the laughter pain!
Ahahaha.. I hate to even say this with a straight face…Auburn might just end up in the CFP if they can beat LSU..They’ll handle Alabama easily..I’m telling you it’s A&M I’m most concerned with for them. The beating Bo Nix took as a Freshman will pay dividens