Updated FPI rankings predict Auburn's remaining games following big win over Washington
The Auburn Tigers picked up one of the most impressive victories of Week 1, knocking off then-No. 6 Washington in Atlanta.
However, the Tigers still have a brutal remaining schedule, including a showdown against LSU in Week 3 and trips to Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama.
After the Week 1 victory, ESPN’s FPI rankings were updated, but the Tigers are still projected to lose both the Georgia and Alabama contests. As you can see below, ESPN’s FPI gives Auburn a 100-percent chance to win this weekend against Alabama State, but only a 27.6-percent chance to win the Iron Bowl in Week 13 in Tuscaloosa:
- vs. Alabama State — 100.0%
- vs. LSU — 78.1%
- vs. Arkansas — 91.9%
- vs. Southern Miss — 98.3%
- at Mississippi State — 57.4%
- vs. Tennessee — 93.9%
- at Ole Miss — 72.6%
- vs. Texas A&M — 80.6%
- at Georgia — 41.3%
- vs. Liberty — 98.5%
- at Alabama — 27.6%
The Tigers’ schedule is brutal, and it’ll be interesting to see how they navigate it. For now, though, they’re 1-0 and riding high after beating a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.
Auburn may very well beat LSU but to say they have a nearly 80% chance to win is laughable. These tms always play tight gms. It’ll be closer than their Landshark gm for sure.
Agree. I’ve seen this rivalry in person too many times … never discount LSU.
AU/LSU both had big wins vs OOC P5 teams in wk 1; both want to jump-start the West race with a win. Can’t quantify MSU squad – they haven’t played a quality opponent yet – but that’s a wk 6 road game for AU … nuff said.
Reminder – AU/LSU loser is still in the hunt – as evidenced by AU’s season last year. Lotta variables as we get deeper into the season.
Yeah, it’s in Auburn. The home team almost always wins that series.
Only going back 17 to 2000 the home team has lost twice in the series. Both times LSU won in auburn. They also happened to be the two worst teams we’ve had this century. 2008 (5-7) and 2012 (3-9!). You beat those two teams by 5 points and 2 points, by the way. The other 15 YEARS, the home team always won.
I know everyone likes to track home/away records and there’s some predictability to the trend analysis, but don’t oversell it. Yes, JH has become a tough, loud and intimidating atmosphere, but what happened 10-15 years ago has very little to do with the how these two teams will play in 2018. Diff players, diff coaches, diff everything.
This is also why I don’t bet AU football – every Sat is a significant emotional event for me.
Except for the Cigar Curse…that thing is real.
Touche’
I think a 78.1% chance of beating LSU is sort of crazy, especially with Ole Miss at 72.6% and MSU at 57.4%. I think 55-65% is far more reasonable.
AU v LSU is always close. Wish it was a night game!!