Breaking down the NCAA Tournament bubble: Betting odds, top picks
The NCAA Tournament bubble is beginning to take shape.
As of Wednesday morning, FanDuel is offering odds on 11 Division 1 teams — who appear to be on the bubble as of Feb. 21 — to either make or miss the NCAA Tournament.
Here’s a chart of the 11 teams and the odds from FanDuel to make or miss the NCAA Tournament. The chart also includes implied odds for both outcomes:
| Team | Yes | Implied odds yes | No | Implied odds no |
| Nebraska | -250 | 71.43% | +182 | 35.46% |
| Nevada | -210 | 67.74% | +154 | 39.37% |
| Villanova | -205 | 67.21% | +152 | 39.68% |
| Wake Forest | -188 | 65.28% | +140 | 41.67% |
| Butler | +134 | 42.74% | -180 | 64.29% |
| Providence | +158 | 38.76% | -215 | 68.25% |
| Ole Miss | +168 | 37.31% | -230 | 69.70% |
| Texas A&M | +210 | 32.26% | -300 | 75.00% |
| Colorado | +320 | 23.81% | -490 | 83.05% |
| St. John’s | +390 | 20.41% | -650 | 86.67% |
| Xavier | +630 | 13.70% | -1400 | 93.33% |
Using BartTorvik’s TourneyCast, we can try to extract some value from these odds. BartTorvik’s model attempts to project the 68-team field based on the strength of each team as well as remaining schedules — it is not reflective of what the field of 68 would look like if the Tournament started today.
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3 best bets
Ole Miss to miss the NCAA Tournament (-230)
- KenPom ranking: 69th
- NET ranking: 67th
- Quad 1 games remaining: 2
Ole Miss is on the bubble despite having a 19-6 record entering Wednesday night’s game against Mississippi State. This is largely because the Rebels played a very weak nonconference schedule (328th nationally) and have been inconsistent in SEC play.
Ole Miss is currently getting credit for a Quad 1 over UCF on the road back in December. However, the Knights are in danger of falling far enough that it could become a Quad 2 victory. If that happens, the Rebels would be just 2-5 in Quad 1 games with only a couple of opportunities to make up that deficit remaining on their schedule.
BartTrovik gives the Rebels just an 8.8% chance to make the Big Dance, meaning they have a 91.2% chance to miss out. That number is too far out-of-step with FanDuel’s offering on this prop, which carries implied odds of 69.7%.
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Wake Forest to make the NCAA Tournament (-188)
- KenPom ranking: 26th
- NET ranking: 21st
- Quad 1 games remaining: 3
Wake Forest is coming off of a 91-58 win over Pitt at home on Tuesday night. The Demon Deacons have a pair of Quad 1 victories already on their résumé and have a strong path to improving their NCAA Tournament chances down the stretch.
Wake has 3 Quad 1 games remaining, with 2 of those coming at home. Per KenPom, Wake Forest is favored to win all 5 of its remaining regular season games — including against that trio of Quad 1 opponents. The Demon Deacons will face Duke in Winston-Salem on Saturday in a game that has major NCAA Tournament implications. Wake also has winnable Quad 1 games remaining vs. Virginia Tech and Clemson (although the Tigers could slip to a Quad 2 game depending on how the season plays out).
If Wake can win 2 of its remaining Quad 1 contests, it will have a chance to be viewed as a NCAA Tournament lock going into the ACC Tournament in early March. But the margins are thin — if the Deacons go 1-2 or 0-3 in those contests, they might be down to needing to win their conference tournament in order to go dancing.
BartTorvik’s model shows a significant edge on this bet. The model gives Wake Forest a 82.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament — compared to just 65.28% implied odds via FanDuel.
St. John’s to make the NCAA Tournament (+390)
- KenPom ranking: 43rd
- NET ranking: 49th
- Quad 1 games remaining: 2
St. John’s is spiraling after losing its last 3 games and 5 of its last 6 overall. But there appears to be some value on backing the Red Storm to make the NCAA Tournament this spring.
BartTorvik’s projection gives St. John’s a 33.8% chance to go dancing, which provides bettors with a little bit of value over the implied odds that FanDuel is offering in this spot (20.41%). BartTorvik’s model includes a fair amount of equity (12.3%) for St. John’s earning a bid by winning the Big East Tournament. The Red Storm have the 4th-highest chance to get the league’s auto-bid, per the model (behind UConn, Creighton and Marquette).
As for their résumé, Rick Pitino’s squad has a couple of Quad 1 wins to go along with a single Quad 3 defeat. The Red Storm do have a chance to add to their résumé down the stretch with Quad 1 opportunities remaining against Creighton (at home) and Butler (on the road). Aside from those 2 tough tests, St. John’s ends the year with a pair of games vs. Georgetown and 1 vs. lowly DePaul. A 4-1 close to the regular season might be necessary for St. John’s to get on the right side of the bubble, but it’s fully within reach.
Sports betting will be live in North Carolina soon! Here’s everything you. need to know about FanDuel North Carolina before they officially launch on March 11.
