Duke vs. Vermont preview: Player prop bet picks

Duke will battle Vermont in a first-round NCAA Tournament game on Friday evening.

The Blue Devils have had a solid season so far, but will have to play well in order to reach their lofty goals during the NCAA Tournament. They will face a Vermont team that has won 10 games in a row entering the Big Dance.

4 Duke vs. 13 Vermont betting info

Spread: Duke -12.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 133.5 points (via ESPN Bet)

Duke is 10-8 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season. The Blue Devils have also beaten the number in 9 of their last 13 games overall. Vermont is 14-18 against the spread overall this season and 4-3 against the number as an underdog.

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Duke: 121.9 (7th)
Vermont: 107.1 (160th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Duke: 96.8 (27th)
Vermont: 100.1 (60th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Duke: 66.8 possessions per game (230th)
Vermont: 63.3 possessions per game (350th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Kyle Filipowski over 16.5 points (-125 at ESPN Bet)

I don’t expect Vermont will have any answers for Kyle Filipowski. The Catamounts don’t play anyone bigger than 6-foot-8, 225 pounds. Filipowski stands at 7-foot, 248 pounds and has the agility and flexibility to put the ball on the floor if necessary. He can also shoot and pass for a big. He’s a matchup nightmare in the ACC, let alone for a program like Vermont who hasn’t seen a power-conference team since it played Virginia Tech on Dec. 16 (and was unceremoniously thumped by the Hokies). Filipowski is averaging 17.1 points per game this year, so I’ll gladly jump at this number against an inferior opponent.

Kyle Filipowski over 25.5 points + rebounds (-110 at ESPN Bet)

Yes, I’m doubling up on Filipowksi props here. Vermont had easily the best defense in its conference this season per KenPom, and it ranks 60th nationally for the full season — an impressive mark for a low-major. However, that’s a bit misleading as the Catamounts did almost all of that work in conference play. From the beginning of the season through Jan. 5 (the day before Vermont’s first America East game), the Catamounts’ defense ranked 193rd nationally, per BartTorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Filipowski is talented enough to punish Vermont on that end of the floor.

Vermont was one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country this season (ranking 345th), which is not great news for a team that isn’t super efficient offensively. Filipowski is a strong rebounder and, as mentioned above, will have a massive size advantage over everyone on Vermont’s roster. I think there’s a decent chance Filipowski gets pretty close to this number on points alone (he has 21+ points in 3 of his last 4 games) but the rebounding should put him over the edge relatively easily.

TJ Long under 1.5 made 3-pointers (+130 at ESPN Bet)

This prop is priced at +130 for a reason — TJ Long is a really good shooter. Long has made multiple 3-pointers in 21 games this season and is shooting 37% from distance on the year on over 6 tries per game. So why am I fading him in this spot? In addition to the attractive +130 price tag, it’s because Long is 1-for-10 from 3-point range against Vermont’s two toughest opponents this season (Bradley and Virginia Tech). Last year, Long played a couple of power-conference teams in Xavier and Wake Forest and went just 4-for-16 from deep. Long is a Fairfield transfer, so he doesn’t have any NCAA Tournament experience like others in this program do. I expect Duke’s defense — as well as the pressure of a Tournament game — will make things difficult on him in this spot.

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