The Fearless Prediction has been in hibernation since the Vols beat Iowa in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. But, like a bad penny, we are back and ready to go with some prognostications for Tennessee’s men’s basketball team in the NCAA Tournament.

A couple of weeks ago, all was right in Big Orange Country. The Vols went on a terrific late season run, beating Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina in consecutive games to capture their first outright SEC regular-season title since 2008. A top seed in the NCAA Tournament looked like a lock, something the Vols had never achieved in program history.

But since then, the Vols lost to Kentucky on Senior Day at the artist formerly known as Thompson-Boling Arena. Then, they got destroyed by Mississippi State in their opening game at the SEC Tournament, in what was UT’s worst performance of the season.

And now, with the NCAA Tournament set to begin, which Tennessee team will we see … the one that looked at times this season like a national championship contender? Or the one that was unmotivated after achieving their conference title goals?

FanDuel puts Tennessee’s odds at +340 to win the Midwest Region and advance to the Final Four. Tempted to go all-in? The Fearless Prediction is here to help.

Tennessee opens play Thursday night against the darlings of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, 15-seed Saint Peter’s. You remember the spunky Peacocks, upsetting Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue on their way to the Elite 8?

Well, this Saint Peter’s squad doesn’t look a whole lot like the team from 2 years ago. Latrell Reid, the MAAC Defensive Player of the Year, is the only guy still on the roster who got playing time in 2022. Head coach Shaheen Holloway left after that magical run and is now at Seton Hall.

This team doesn’t want to play up-tempo. They want to bleed the clock and make Tennessee play a half-court, grind it out contest. The Peacocks are ranked 12th in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 63.4 points per game, well below the Vols’ offensive output of 79.5 points per game.

Saint Peter’s go to player is 6-6 sophomore forward Corey Washington, who averages 16.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. He had 24 points against Fairfield in the MAAC Tournament title game, including 20 in the second half.

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But there just isn’t enough offensive firepower for the Peacocks to pull off another upset, and the Vols will advance to the second round where they’ll play … 7-seed Texas.

Yes, First Four winner Colorado State could also beat the Longhorns, but the UT vs. UT matchup is just too perfect. The NCAA script writers are going the NFL script writers a run for their money.

The history is there. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes won 402 games in 17 years with the Longhorns and led them to the 2003 Final Four. Texas hired Barnes after the 2015 season, and only a few days later he was hired by former Tennessee AD Dave Hart. It would turn out to be Hart’s biggest accomplishment during his controversial tenure in Knoxville.

Texas has scorers, with 4 players averaging over 10 points per game. But they also allow near 70 points per game as a team, putting them 105th in the nation. Three-point defense is also a concern for the Longhorns. Opponents make 34.9% of their attempts behind the arc. That should bode well for Tennessee’s SEC Player of the Year, Dalton Knecht.

Barnes has faced Texas twice while at Tennessee, a loss in Austin in 2022 was followed by a win in Knoxville in 2023. I think the rubber match goes to Barnes as well, putting the Vols in the Sweet 16 for what will be the 10th time in program history.

Tennessee’s first 2 tournament games are a relatively short drive away in Charlotte, less than 4 hours from Knoxville. The Sweet 16/Elite 8 will be played further away in Detroit, but you still can count on there being a lot of orange in Little Caesars Arena.

The Vols could end up facing South Carolina for a third time, but the Fearless Prediction expects 3-seed Creighton to be their opponent in the Sweet 16.

The Bluejays are really good. They lost to San Diego State by a single point in the Elite 8 a year ago. They finished 3rd in the Big East this season, went 23-9, and even upset top overall seed UConn by 19 points a month ago. Senior guard Baylor Scheierman leads Creighton in scoring (18.4 points per game) and rebounding (9 boards per game). Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is 7-1, averages 17 points per game, and will make life difficult for the Vols inside.

I don’t like that potential Creighton matchup for Tennessee.

The elusive Final Four will have to wait at least one more season.

Fearless Prediction time …

The Vols will get to the Sweet 16 for the 3rd time under Barnes, but they’ll fall to Creighton.