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Friedlander: ACC basketball needs a strong showing against the SEC to avoid more frustration in March
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The first NET rankings of the college basketball season are out.
And the news isn’t good for the ACC.
In fact, it’s borderline alarming.
Duke, even with its 2 close neutral-site losses to ranked opponents, is still in good shape at No. 4. So is Pittsburgh at No. 5 and Clemson at No. 18, while North Carolina (No. 26) and Louisville (No. 30) are all inside the top 30.
But after that, the dropoff is steep enough to base-jump from without much risk of injury. Nine teams, exactly half the league’s current membership, are ranked 80th or lower. That includes last year’s Final Four entry NC State and a Wake Forest squad that was picked to finish 3rd this season.
Virginia Tech is mired at the bottom of the list, buried at No. 233 behind the likes of Campbell, Tennessee Tech and Southeast Missouri State.
These are just the preliminary numbers, of course. They will inevitably rise once the cupcakes have all been served and conference play begins.
But only so much.
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As we’ve seen over the past couple of seasons, a low starting point can limit how high the NET can eventually climb and can haunt a team and a conference for the rest of the season. That’s why this week’s ACC-SEC Challenge is more than just a fun little competition to decide bragging rights for fans of the leagues to argue about on social media.
It’s the ACC’s last best chance to start building momentum, bolster its numbers and make the kind of statement that will keep it from once again being stuck on the short end of the invitation list once the party gets started come March.
Yes, games in November and December really do matter that much.
ACC commissioner Jim Phillips realized it last spring when he initiated what he described as “an extensive statistical analysis with multiple experts” to get a better understanding of the metrics involved in the NET ranking system.
The primary emphasis of the study was on scheduling. But because of the human element involved in the NCAA selection process, Phillips said that the conference planned to be more aggressive with television partner ESPN “to make certain our coverage is appropriately reflecting the talent and the teams we have in this outstanding league.”
Talking points are nice. So is a better understanding of the metrics.
But if the ACC wants to be taken seriously when it calls itself the “nation’s premier college conference,” as it often does, it’s time to put up or shut up and prove it on the court.
Its teams haven’t done nearly enough of that so far this season.
And it’s not just the bottom of the league that’s bringing everyone else down by losing to the likes of Jacksonville, as Virginia Tech did, Elon, as Notre Dame did, and Dartmouth, as Boston College did.
The big boys haven’t held up their end of the bargain, either. Duke and UNC already have 5 losses between them, though admittedly against higher-level competition.
At least the Blue Devils have played well in their losses to Kentucky and Kansas and given themselves chances to win on the final possession. But at some point, Jon Scheyer’s prized freshmen are going to have to prove they can win those games.
At least this time, against No. 2 Auburn on Wednesday, they’ll have the advantage of playing at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Earlier in the evening, Hubert Davis’ Tar Heels will be back at Smith Center looking to rebound from a disastrous trip to Maui against No. 10 Alabama in a rematch of last season’s Sweet 16 loss.
𝙅𝙐𝙎𝙏 𝘿𝙍𝙊𝙋𝙋𝙀𝘿.
ACC/SEC Challenge times and networks 👇
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— ACC Men's Basketball (@accmbb) September 23, 2024
As important as it is for the ACC’s signature programs to hold serve on their home courts, the urgency to at least break even in the Challenge — as it did in the inaugural event a year ago — is just as great.
That won’t be easy.
The ACC is already 1-12 head-to-head this season, with Pittsburgh scoring the only victory against LSU. And there are a lot of unfavorable matchups on the schedule, most notably Syracuse at Tennessee and Georgia Tech at Oklahoma.
The most consequential games are those involving NC State, Wake Forest and Miami. All 3 teams badly need resume-building opportunities, with the Wolfpack hosting Texas, the Deacons on the road at Texas A&M and the Hurricanes at home to John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks.
Winning those games will not only help raise their own NET high enough to have a shot at ending up on the right side of the NCAA bubble, but it will also give the entire conference a boost in its effort to get more than just the 5 bids it has landed in each of the past 3 tournaments.
To the ACC’s credit, those teams have acquitted themselves well in the postseason. The league had the most tournament wins, the most Sweet 16 teams and 3 of the Elite Eight last spring, with NC State getting all the way to the national semifinals.
But none of that holds any weight when it comes to this season’s bracket.
To have a chance at playing in March and April, teams have to start winning in November and December.
And for the ACC, time is already running out.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
