Gamecocks' rise, Alabama's consistency define the first half of SEC conference play
We’ve reached the halfway point of conference play in the SEC, and as March slowly beckons, a loaded league is starting to separate the elite from the very good and sort out the select group of teams that will challenge to wear the coveted crown of regular-season SEC champion.
Can Alabama hang on and capture its 3rd SEC title under Nate Oats?
South Carolina is for real, but is a top 16 NCAA Tournament seed truly possible in just Year 2 under Lamont Paris?
Will Tennessee finally break its Final Four curse?
Here are Saturday Down South’s takeaways and awards at the halfway mark of league play, along with a 3 predictions on how things will pan out as the league charges towards March Madness and potentially, a 9-bid Selection Sunday.
Best team: Alabama
Tennessee holds the loftier ranking, but the Crimson Tide hold first place in the standings at 8-1 in the league, thanks to another elite Nate Oats offense. Alabama started the season 6-5, a rough and tumble beginning that made it difficult to remember that the Crimson Tide lost an All-American in Brandon Miller and over 3,000 points to either the NBA Draft (Miller, Noah Clowney, undrafted big man Charles Bediako), graduation (Noah Gurley), or the transfer portal (Jahvon Quinerly, Jaden Bradley, Nimari Burnett, among others).
It was always going to take time for this group to gel, and a schedule that included games against Final Four caliber opponents Purdue and Arizona as well as tough tests against Ohio State, Clemson, Oregon, and Creighton was never going to be easy.
The consistency of Alabama in the Oats era has been remarkable.
The Crimson Tide have won 11 of 12 since the 6-5 start, thanks to Oats blending brilliant transfers like do-everything glue guy Aaron Estrada and one of the nation’s most prolific scorers in Grant Nelson with a young corps that includes sophomore Rylan Griffin (60% effective field goal percentage!) and true freshmen Jarin Stevenson and defensive stopper Mouhamed Dioubate.
For the second year in a row, the Crimson Tide also have the best player in the SEC. Senior guard Mark Sears ranks among the nation’s best 50 in offensive rating (36th) per KenPom and is 1 of only 3 players in the country — and the only guy in the Power 6 — to rank in the top 50 in offensive rating despite a usage rate of over 25 percent. He’s also shooting a dynamic 45% from deep on reasonable volume (114 attempts), all while posting quality assists (4 per game) and steal numbers (1.7 per contest). Analytics guru Bart Torvik ranks Sears the best player in the SEC through the first weekend of February.
The balance and chemistry on this team will make them a tough out in March, and potentially, the SEC Champion.
Team with biggest upside: Tennessee
The lone team to beat Alabama in SEC play to date?
The Volunteers, who routed the Crimson Tide by 20 in Thompson-Boling Arena on Jan. 20. With a roster full of upperclassmen, Tennessee plays elite defense and limits mistakes (1oth nationally in turnover percentage). But we’ve seen that type of Tennessee movie before, and while it makes for an excellent season, it has fizzled in March, a huge reason Tennessee has reached the second weekend just twice in Rick Barnes’ previous 8 successful seasons in Knoxville.
If you’ve paid attention, you know why this team is different. All-American candidate Dalton Knecht, the steal of the transfer portal, has come in from Northern Colorado and lit the universe on fire, shooting 39% from deep and posting an effective field goal percentage of 55.4 despite a league high 27.1% usage rate. Until Saturday night’s 103-92 dissection of Kentucky at Rupp Arena, Knecht had scored at least 20 points in each of the Volunteers’ conference victories, including an astounding 39 against Florida and 36 in a double-digit comeback win at Georgia.
As great as the likes of Admiral Schofield, Grant Williams, Kennedy Chandler, Jordan Bone, Zakai Zeigler, or John Fulkerson were or have been for Barnes and Tennessee, they’ve never had a “this is our guy in crunch time in March” guy … until now. Knecht makes Tennessee’s first Final Four as a program possible.
If not now, when for the Vols under the 69-year-old Barnes?
Team that is tougher than your team: South Carolina
We are past calling what Lamont Paris has done in Year 2 in Columbia a surprise.
We’ve moved on and are now in the full on admiration stage.
There’s an old Billy Donovan quote about building a winner that I think of as I watch this Gamecocks team week in and week out.
“Losing can either deflate you, or it can create battle scars. When you get knocked down, do you get up grinning? Do you get up remembering? Adversity is inevitable. It’s response and the repetition of that response that builds a champion.”
A season ago, Paris and the Gamecocks won 11 games. But they built up battle scars, and starters like Meechie Johnson have responded by being the toughest team in a league full of bullies. Paris, a protégé of Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan, has built a Badgers-tough squad that keeps the ball in front of them defensively, controls the defensive glass, and plays tremendous two-point defense (20th in the country in KenPom).
With a résumé that now includes wins at Tennessee and a home rout of Kentucky, the No. 15 Gamecocks are starting to draw national attention. They’ll get more of it when they keep winning in February and March, a scenario that seems likely given they are finally completely healthy, too.
Coach of the Year to Date: Lamont Paris, South Carolina
This is a no-brainer.
Paris and the Gamecocks were picked last in the SEC (yours truly voted them 12th on his ballot — yuck!) and they are a game out of the league lead, with a tiebreaker edge over Tennessee at present, through the first half of league play. The defense was noted above, but it’s the way Paris and his staff constructed an offense capable of running more ball screen actions and scoring on all 3 levels that isn’t getting enough love right now.
A year ago, the Gamecocks finished in the 200s nationally in offensive efficiency. This season, they rank 58th in KenPom, and that number has actually improved in SEC play, despite consistently tougher opposition. With jack of all trades driver Ta’Lon Cooper, 3-point shooter Myles Stute finally healthy, and freshman Collin Murray-Boyles starting to come on strong (16 points in the win over Georgia, 6 points and 5 assists in the win over Kentucky), the Gamecocks are starting to look balanced and all the more dangerous as the season hits the backstretch.
All-SEC team to date
G: Mark Sears, Alabama
G: Zyon Pullin, Florida
G: Wade Taylor IV, Texas A&M
F: Dalton Knecht, Tennessee
F: Johni Broome, Auburn
Sears would be my Player of the Year, for now, but a vote for Knecht would also make sense, given how he’s dramatically altered Tennessee’s already lofty ceiling. Pullin ranks No. 2 in Bart Torvik in efficiency and leads the league in assist to turnover ratio, and he’s the primary reason the Gators may return to the NCAA Tournament after a 2-year absence. Wade Taylor IV has been sensational, averaging 20 points a contest for the Aggies, who quietly lead the SEC in Quad 1 wins (4).
Auburn plays a legitimate 9-10 man rotation, but Johni Broome is by far the most important piece. Broome gives Bruce Pearl’s team the interior toughness and the on-court and off-court leadership that has the Tigers in position to capture their third SEC championship of the Pearl era (Auburn had 3 in its program history prior to Pearl’s arrival on the Plains). Kentucky’s sensational freshmen duo of Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard just miss all-league honors, as does South Carolina’s Cooper, who started his career with Broome at Morehead State.
3 bold 2nd-half predictions
1. Alabama wins the league — again
The Crimson Tide’s SEC slate is backloaded, which makes this take a bit bold. Beginning with a visit to Auburn for a rematch with the Tigers on Wednesday night, Alabama has 3 road games against teams ranked in the top 30 of Bart Torvik’s analytics ratings down the stretch (Auburn, Kentucky, Florida). They also visit Ole Miss and host the Gators. But Oats has become a master at navigating the minefield that is the new age SEC, and Mark Sears and Alabama will win 15 league games — securing the league title by a game over Tennessee.
2. 9 Bids for the SEC, including 4 of the tournament’s seeded 16 teams
The SEC will hear 9 of its members get their names called on Selection Sunday, from “Last Four In” Miss State to 4 of the NCAA Tournament’s 16 seeded teams in Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, and yes, South Carolina. Whether this is the year that the Vols — or Oats and the Crimson Tide — break through beyond the Sweet 16 will be the defining story for the league once the Madness begins.
3. Chris Beard leaves Ole Miss after just 1 season
Ole Miss took a chance when it brought Chris Beard to Oxford in the wake of his firing at the University of Texas for off-court felony domestic abuse charges (these were ultimately dismissed). For at least one season, the decision to hire Beard has paid off, with the Rebels well-situated to head to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
Whatever you think of Beard off the court, he is one of the brightest talents in the sport as a head coach, and you can bet he’ll be a hot commodity when jobs begin to open in early March. The Louisville job may be too enticing for Beard to turn down, and if they can’t lure Dusty May away from FAU, Indiana may turn to Beard — a longtime Bobby Knight lieutenant — to resurrect the glory days in Bloomington. Either way, it would be surprising to see Beard back on the sideline in Oxford next autumn.