Friedlander: Florida State’s loss is everyone else’s gain in a suddenly wide open ACC race
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Even in the old days, you know, back when the College Football Playoff consisted of only 4 teams, 1 loss early in the season wasn’t a disqualifying blemish on a team’s postseason resume.
As Alabama and Texas both proved a year ago.
So it’s a little amusing, though not entirely unexpected, to see the overreaction on social media of those already writing off Florida State because of Saturday’s upset at the hands of Georgia Tech.
It’s as if the Seminoles’ season is already circling the bowl. And we haven’t even gotten to Week 1 yet.
While losing to a conference opponent in the opening game isn’t the optimal way to start any season, there’s still too much football to be played to determine just how damaging the slow start might be.
Especially with the elimination of divisional play in the ACC.
All a team has to do is finish 2nd in the league to get a shot at the conference title and the all-but-automatic bid to the newly expanded Playoff in Charlotte on Dec. 7. And there’s a realistic possibility that a team with 2 league losses could get in this year because of the ACC’s improved depth and balance.
Still, with the preseason favorite to repeat its 2023 championship now starting with an early disadvantage and suddenly looking vulnerable, the door to the championship game has been swung wide open for any number of potential contenders.
You think the vibe of the Democratic National Convention changed the moment the old guy pulled out of the race and the new kids on the block invited Lil’ Jon, Pink that guitarist jamming from her back to their party?
Aidan Birr’s game-winning 44-yard field goal in Dublin, Ireland on Saturday had just as seismic an impact on every upwardly mobile ACC contender with realistic hopes of replacing their old guard at the top of the conference ticket.
An indication of how much the dynamic of the conference race has changed, FSU’s odds to repeat as champions have dropped from No. 1 in the league to No. 4, according to ESPN Bets sportsbook. The Seminoles are at now at +600, behind new favorite Clemson (+260), Miami (+375) and NC State (+550).
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Here’s your shot, Hurricanes and Wolfpack. You too Virginia Tech, Louisville and Georgia Tech.
Can one of you take advantage of it?
Louisville paved the way for just such a breakthrough by cashing in on Clemson’s early stumble and a pillowy soft conference schedule to get to Charlotte in Jeff Brohm’s 1st season as coach last year.
That experience could help the Cardinals in their effort to do it again this fall.
But they’re something of a wild card because of a bulked-up slate that has them visiting Death Valley on Nov. 2 and an offense that has been almost completely flipped with additions from the transfer portal.
Miami also has a large group of transfers to incorporate into its lineup, with Heisman-quality quarterback Cam Ward as the star attraction. The difference is that the Hurricanes have a much larger core of proven returning talent.
Their biggest obstacles will be history and coach Mario Cristobal’s often suspect game-management skills.
It’s nothing new for The U to be hyped as a legitimate championship threat at the start of a new season. It’s happened virtually every year since joining the ACC in 2004. Just as often, the Hurricanes find a way to fall short of their high expectations.
Usually in the most spectacular way possible.
We’ll get a glimpse of how quickly it might happen on Saturday against in-state rival Florida.
Win or lose against the Gators, the result won’t have any bearing on Miami’s chances of finishing in the top 2 in the conference. Barring more than 1 hiccup along the way, that likely won’t be determined until FSU comes to Hard Rock Stadium for a head-to-head showdown on Oct. 26.
The pathway to Charlotte is even more wide open for NC State and Virginia Tech.
Both programs enter 2024 on a high note after posting strong finishes last year.
The Wolfpack won their final 5 regular season games despite a patchwork offense that’s been bulked up considerably with the addition of a 3-time conference Player of the Year quarterback, an 800-yard rusher in the backfield and several wide receivers off the portal to go along with an annually stout defense.
The Hokies have the highest percentage of returning production in the country, led by quarterback Kyron Drones on one side of the ball and sack leader Antwaun Ryland-Powell on the other, from a team that posted its school’s 1st winning record since 2019.
And they’ve both been given an unexpected ace in the hole thanks to FSU’s opening-game loss.
Because neither Tech nor State plays the Seminoles during the regular season, each would hold a tiebreaker over FSU if they finish with identical 7-1 league marks. As long as that one loss doesn’t come against Georgia Tech.
The same holds true for the Yellow Jackets, who earned their tiebreaker on the other side of the Atlantic Coast last Saturday.
It’s a result that has opened the door for a lot of others in the conference.
Now all someone has to do is crash through it.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
