Finally fought back to .500 on the season and then chaos ensued around college football and here we are. I gave my thoughts on the Week 14 schedule earlier this week. Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 14.

(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)

  • Last week’s record: 1-4
  • Overall season record: 26-30

Oregon State-Boise State over 56.5 total points (-110 via FanDuel)

I just don’t see how Oregon State slows down the Boise State run game, and with 5 wins on the board already for the Beavers, they will be fighting desperately to get that sixth for bowl eligibility. The Beaver run defense ranks 129th nationally in EPA per run faced and 130th in rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper. Ashton Jeanty should have plenty of production and Maddux Madsen will be able to work with the play-action, where he’s at his best. One week after putting 41 on the board in an upset of Washington State, Oregon State is once again going to have to score to have a chance. And this Boise defense has been prone to points this season. They gave up 30 in 3 of their first 5 games and have played in 7 games this season with a combined point total north of 60.

Notre Dame -4.5 first-half at USC (even via ESPN Bet)

The Irish have been jumping on teams in the first half and then leaning on them in the second. Over the last 6 games, Notre Dame has outscored its competition 143-31 in the first half while outgaining them on a per-play basis 7 to 4. The defense also has 9 first-half takeaways in its last 4 games. I like Notre Dame to jump on USC early in this game. It’ll be Jayden Maiava’s “welcome to the big leagues” moment. USC’s quarterback position changed hands ahead of the Nebraska game. Maiava has led wins over Nebraska and UCLA, but Notre Dame’s defense is a different beast. The Irish lead the nation in stop rate, tracked by ESPN’s Max Olson. They end 81.6% of drives without points. Maiava had 3 turnover-worthy throws against Nebraska. At UNLV last year, he had the highest turnover-worthy play rate of any qualified quarterback in the Mountain West. It was an encouraging 2 weeks in Los Angeles, but I think the ship runs aground a little here. USC ranks 74th in rushing success rate allowed, so if the turnover issue pops up, Notre Dame should be able to do what it wants.

Georgia Tech +19.5 at Georgia (-110 via bet365)

Since the Clemson game, Georgia is 0-6 against the spread as a favorite of 10 points or more. Overall, the Bulldogs are 3-8 against the spread this season. They have not been the juggernaut we’ve come to expect from Georgia, instead only flirting with their potential. Brent Key is bringing a really competent Georgia Tech squad into this game, one he has proven to be competitive in early in his tenure. And I think the Yellow Jackets will be competitive at the line of scrimmage in this one. They rank in the 87th percentile for line yards allowed and the 99th percentile for stuff rate, per Game on Paper. They generate a ton of havoc on defense and hit explosive plays on offense. Georgia’s run defense is leaky, at best, and the Tech offense should bring a ton of confidence into this game on the heels of last week’s win.

NC State +3.5 at North Carolina (-110 via FanDuel)

I’m spooked by the situation in Chapel Hill, to say the least. And the visitors in this matchup are fighting for bowl eligibility. NC State had its bowl canceled in 2021 because of COVID issues with its opponent but has otherwise ended 8 of the last 9 seasons with a bowl appearance. A loss here would guarantee Dave Doeren’s first losing season since 2019. After nearly knocking off Georgia Tech, The Wolfpack are still sitting on 5 wins. They’ve lost back-to-back, but I thought they outplayed Georgia Tech last week and their opponents this week are going through a period of serious dysfunction. UNC head coach Mack Brown, at 73 years old, said he planned to return to coach the team in 2025 and a day later the program put out a press release saying that was, in fact, not happening. Brown was essentially fired from UNC but kept on to coach the regular-season finale against a rival. This all comes days after North Carolina lost to Boston College 41-21. UNC has very little to play for, and with a lame-duck coach, it’s fair to question how bought in the roster is right now. This will be a physical game in the cold. I think the Wolfpack will be the aggressor.

Arizona State -8.5 at Arizona (-110 via ESPN Bet)

Arizona is bad. Super bad. And this is a spot where ASU might roll. The Wildcats have lost 7 of their last 9 games and 5 of the 7 losses have been by 20 points or more. The bottom dropped out last week when TCU did whatever it wanted in a 49-28 win. On the other side, Arizona State is surging, with wins in its last 4 games to set up a win-and-in finale. Beat the Wildcats and play for the Big 12 Championship; that’s the situation the Sun Devils find themselves in. This is a hate-filled rivalry, but I don’t think that on its own means this will be some tight affair. Arizona won by 36 last year. Arizona State won by 63 in 2020. In fact, 7 of the last 9 games in this series have featured double-digit margins. Arizona is 2-9 ATS this year while ASU is 9-2. Everything is pointing in one direction.