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I gave my thoughts on the Week 9 schedule earlier this week. Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 9.
(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)
Last week’s record: 2-3
Overall season record: 14-18
Washington +6.5 at Indiana (-115 via FanDuel)
Washington is coming off a bye week. Indiana is coming off a game where it blew past expectations in an emotional environment. With quarterback Kurtis Rourke expected to miss this game, I view this as a trap spot for IU.
Indiana is not going to pivot from Rourke to its backup quarterback and just keep on keeping on. If Tayven Jackson could do the things Rourke can do, coach Curt Cignetti would not have jumped into the portal to supplant Jackson in the pecking order. Rourke has been fabulous this season, and he was outstanding in the first half against Nebraska. There will be an adjustment.
Washington isn’t the easiest opponent to do that against. The Huskies rank eighth nationally in Game on Paper‘s net adjusted EPA-per-play metric. UW ranks second nationally in passing success rate allowed to opposing offenses. Only 2 FBS teams have given up fewer 10-yard gains through the air than Washington, which hasn’t allowed a single pass play of 40 or more yards all year. I’m also expecting Indiana’s run defense to be put to the test by a tailback in Jonah Coleman who is a nightmare to try and bring down.
Penn State -6.5 at Wisconsin (-110 via Caesars)
It’s fairly obvious why this game — between a 6-0 Penn State team and a Wisconsin team that has looked gross against the 2 best teams it has faced — has the spread it currently has. Wisconsin is at home. Wisconsin has won 3 straight games, all of them by at least 20 points. Penn State has the game that makes or breaks its season next week against Ohio State at home. I just have a hard time buying that Penn State, after a bye week, is going to follow up one uneven performance with another. The Nittany Lions will want to take momentum into the matchup with the Buckeyes. An overtime escape against USC and a slim victory over Wisconsin doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Wisconsin quarterback Braedyn Locke has beaten up on defenses that pale in comparison to what he’ll see from Penn State, and the Badger defense hasn’t faced anything resembling this Penn State offense since getting rolled by Alabama and USC. Penn State is No. 6 in net adjusted EPA per play and has, for the most part, looked like a team without major weak points.
Notre Dame -13.5 vs. Navy (-110 via bet365)
To this point, Memphis (59th) is the only FBS opponent Navy has faced that ranks higher than 119th in SP+. Notre Dame is eighth. This will be a massive step up in class for the Middies, who have only played awful teams to date. Yes, Navy beat Charlotte 51-17 last week. But 2 of those scores were long interception returns from the defense and the offense only produced 288 total yards. The offense has been trending down since beating Memphis and it averaged only 5.2 yards per play against Charlotte last week. Meanwhile, the defense has given up more than 5 yards per play in 3 of the last 4. That’s a concerning sign. On paper, Navy has about as perfect an offense as there is anywhere in college football, but that offense hasn’t faced anything close to the defense Notre Dame brings into the matchup. And the Irish have the tools on offense to really stress Navy, which hasn’t been great defending the run.
Miami -20.5 vs. Florida State (-120 via FanDuel)
Florida State is 1-6 on the season and possibly cursed. (We’ll just leave that at that…) The Seminoles covered against Clemson, which said more about Clemson that day than it did anything else. Their most recent outing was a 23-16 disaster class of a loss to Duke on the road. Florida State doesn’t produce takeaways and gets killed by opposing passing attacks. Miami quarterback Cam Ward has to be itching to get this game rolling. Miami should be able to pick the score here. If the ‘Canes want to run it up on their rivals, Florida State probably won’t offer much resistance. The offense is putrid and the defense is poor in all the places Ward will look to attack.
Oklahoma over 12.5 team points at Ole Miss (-140 via DraftKings)
The Sooners fired Seth Littrell after 7 games and coach Brent Venables handed sole possession of the offensive coordinator title to Joe Jon Finley. After a 35-9 home loss to South Carolina, Venables was backed into a corner. He had to make some kind of a change. And in the immediate aftermath of that decision, I’m looking for the Sooners to show something on offense. It cannot possibly be any worse than it has been. Sometimes these coordinator changes lead to a boost for a slumping unit. A new voice takes over, guys feel like they have a breath of fresh air and they play looser. Oklahoma’s defense once again showed some fight against the Gamecocks, but when you spot anyone 21 points in the first 5 minutes of the game, you’re going to get blown out. With Jackson Arnold taking back over at quarterback, I think Finley can put 2 scores on the board against an Ole Miss defense that gave up 20 to Kentucky a few weeks ago.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
