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Betting Stuff: College Football Playoff wagers to make ahead of the second rankings reveal
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On Tuesday night, between a pair of high-profile college basketball games, the second set of rankings for the College Football Playoff will be unveiled.
Two teams inside the selection committee’s top 12 last week lost on Saturday — Miami to Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia to Ole Miss on the road. What the committee does with those 2 is anyone’s guess. Miami was previously unbeaten. Georgia is Georgia, though not to the same degree this year. Still, a CFP without Georgia would be stunning, so the Bulldogs aren’t expected to fall out of the picture entirely. Yet. (Miami was ranked No. 12 in the new AP poll. Georgia sat at No. 11.)
Last season, 3 of the 4 teams that made the CFP sat outside the top 4 in the committee’s second set of rankings. Washington was No. 5, Texas was No. 7, Alabama was No. 8.
Prior to last season (so, 2014-22), only 4 teams had made the CFP after sitting outside the top 6 in the committee’s second set of rankings. Oklahoma did it twice (2015, 2019). Ohio State did it in 2014. Michigan State did it in 2015.
As the years went on, we were able to develop a pretty clear line of demarcation in the early rankings.
With the field expanding to 12 teams, we’re learning as we go.
Ole Miss was ranked 16th in the committee’s rankings last week, and it seems likely to crack the top 10 this week. Colorado was 19th, but the Buffs are still very much in play for the Big 12 title and the automatic bid that comes with it.
There’s still much to be determined.
With that in mind, here are 3 bets I’m making right now on Playoff futures.
BYU to make the CFP (+120 via ESPN Bet)
On a neutral field, I’d have BYU by 3 points over Colorado right now. With Iowa State losing consecutive games, BYU and Colorado are on track to play each other in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. If the Cougars make it to the game unbeaten, they might be in regardless of what happens in the game. BYU’s final 3 games in the regular season are against Kansas (3-6), Arizona State (7-2), and Houston (4-5). The ASU game is on the road, but I have BYU by 9 in that game based on the data we have through 11 weeks.
If BYU makes the Big 12 title game, its odds of reaching the CFP are at a minimum 50/50 because of the auto bid that would be up for grabs. Should BYU stumble, the Cougars would probably be going up against a multi-loss SEC team for one of the final at-large bids. At that point, BYU would need to hope SMU and Kansas State continue to rank high enough in the committee’s eyes to justify their inclusion. Because the SEC team might be a program like Georgia or Alabama.
Of course, someone has to actually beat BYU for that to come into play. The Cougars are 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or less this season and they’re 7-2 against the spread. Alternatively, fading Colorado in the CFP discussion might be a separate move worth considering (as was suggested here.)
Related Reading: Predicting the top 12 of the second Playoff Poll of 2024
SMU to make the CFP (+130 via ESPN Bet)
My colleague, Spenser Davis, and I wrote exhaustively about SMU during the offseason. With everything back from a conference championship-winning team in 2023 and a favorable ACC schedule, the Mustangs looked like a team that could crash the party in the CFP. Fast forward to November and they’re currently sitting atop the ACC standings as the last remaining unbeaten team in league play. SMU controls its destiny.
With regard to the CFP, the Ponies have to make the ACC title game to have a chance. They won’t be considered if they don’t at least play in the conference title game. To that end, they have games remaining against Boston College (5-4), Virginia (5-4), and Cal (5-4). Two of the 3 are at home. SMU doesn’t really have a win that jumps off the page — Pitt might fall out of the rankings this week — but the only loss is by 3 points to BYU. SMU is 6-3 against the spread and has won 5 of its 9 games by 20 points or more. When the schedule is light, and SMU’s is light, ranking 81st nationally by FPI, you want to see domination. SMU has mostly done everything it could.
But, again, it has to make the ACC title game. And if it does, the odds of reaching the CFP are 50/50 at a minimum because of the auto bid factor. Miami has games remaining against Wake Forest and Syracuse. Clemson faces Pitt. Should the Tigers lose that game, SMU gets some breathing room and this might be wrapped up nicely. I’d have SMU as a slight favorite over Clemson and a coin flip against Miami.
Texas A&M to make the CFP (+300 via ESPN Bet)
Yes, the disappointment of the South Carolina loss lingers. But Texas A&M is 5-1 in league play and still very much controls its destiny in the SEC title race. The Aggies face New Mexico State on Saturday. They play Auburn on the road on Nov. 23. Two wins set up a date with Texas on Nov. 30 with the season on the line. Talk about a picturesque setting for a rivalry renewed. Kyle Field is already a difficult place to play in.
Texas A&M is 7-2. Most believe a 10-win SEC team is making the Playoff on the strength of those 10 wins alone. Should A&M run the table, it would have ranked wins over Texas, LSU, and maybe Missouri, depending on how the committee handles the Tigers down the stretch. Its only losses in that scenario would be to a likely Playoff team and South Carolina on the road. That’s a Playoff-caliber résumé. And that’s ignoring a potential SEC Championship Game, which A&M would be playing in if it wins out.
I still have questions for Texas, which looked significantly different when it went up against Georgia — the first good team it had faced to that point in the year — and then struggled to put away Vanderbilt. The Longhorns demolished Florida, but I’m not jumping out of my seat over the margin. Florida was one-dimensional and still ran for 200 yards on Texas. A&M can match up in the trenches the way Georgia could.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
