Betting Stuff: Opening thoughts on 10 opening lines for Week 10
Week after week, we’ve had wild results and unforeseen upsets and remarkable statements of strength throughout college football. In Week 9, we got… nothing? Four teams ranked inside the AP poll lost, but all of them lost to higher-ranked teams. LSU lost to Texas A&M, but the Aggies were favored and at home. Ohio State and Texas almost lost, but I expected closer games in both instances so those didn’t really register as surprises. Maybe the chaos resumes this weekend to kick off a November with the potential to be an all-timer.
We have another top-5 matchup in the Big Ten. Five ranked teams go on the road to face unranked teams. Tennessee faces a Kentucky team that has already upset one SEC title hopeful. Miami looks to keep its unbeaten record intact against a surprisingly-successful Duke team. And we have another chapter in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Here’s what I’m paying attention to in Week 10.
- Last week: 5-2
- 2024 season: 44-32-1
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State
Ohio State -4 | Total: 47
I think this is the year Penn State beats Ohio State. Now, does that mean the Nittany Lions actually pull it off? We’ve seen good Penn State teams blow it over the course of this 7-game losing streak. This game is as much psychological as it is physical for James Franklin’s bunch. Having this game at home should help the Nittany Lions, but more than anything, Ohio State has shown some reasons to be concerned on both sides of the line of scrimmage in recent weeks.
When Ohio State lost to Oregon, the defensive front was the center of attention. The Buckeyes couldn’t get pressure on Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel and struggled to generate much action in the Oregon backfield. They finished with 2 tackles for loss and 0 sacks. They didn’t bring a ton of pressure, instead opting to keep the structure of their defense intact.
Against Nebraska, that flipped. Ohio State brought a ton of pressure. Ohio State looked like it had spent the entire week talking about how it needed to make NU quarterback Dylan Raiola uncomfortable. They finished with 3 sacks and 13 tackles for loss.
But one interesting byproduct of that pressure was that it placed the Buckeye corners on even more secluded islands. Nebraska got lots of man looks and, 2 weeks after watching Oregon hunt Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun, Nebraska went after them. Nebraska didn’t have the same success Oregon had, but Nebraska doesn’t have the same caliber of receiver.
The TFLs feel a bit like fool’s gold at the moment if only because of the sheer volume of throws Nebraska attempted at or behind the line of scrimmage. Nebraska OC Marcus Satterfield was under fire for leaning on a broken screen game. Ohio State had better athletes and more often had the numbers. (Over a quarter of Raiola’s throws this season are behind the line of scrimmage. Drew Allar is at 15%.)
I don’t think the Nebraska game serves as the answer to Ohio State’s defensive questions as much as it appears to on the surface. Can the Buckeyes do the same thing against a Penn State group that has given up the third-fewest TFLs of any FBS team? That remains to be seen.
Ohio State also struggled heavily on the offensive line, producing just 2.6 rushing yards per carry (adjusted for sacks). The Buckeyes almost looked like a team that was trying to force the run game. Jeremiah Smith had 2 targets in the second half, both of which came early in the third. But even with 2 of the best backs in the sport, Ohio State finished with 74 net yards on the ground. Quinshon Judkins averaged 2.9 a carry. TreVeyon Henderson averaged 2.5 a carry.
The loss of Josh Simmons at left tackle was felt. Zen Michalski stepped in as the starting left tackle and was very poor. He gave up 4 pressures, got beat several times in the run game, and finished with a 14.2 pass-blocking grade from PFF. When he left the game with an injury, Donovan Jackson bumped out from guard to tackle and Luke Montgomery filled in at guard.
Penn State currently ranks third nationally in rushing success rate allowed (Game on Paper). They’re also 29th in havoc rate. The uncertain status of quarterback Drew Allar may move this line a bit. If he plays, Penn State has a chance.
Bet Penn State +4
No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas
Ole Miss -6.5 | Total: 54.5
Arkansas is a remarkably volatile team. The Razorbacks have won big, they’ve won tight, they’ve blown games they should have won, they’ve snatched victories from games they should have lost. They’re 6-2 against the spread this season. They could clear this number, or they could turn the ball over 3-plus times and get blown out. One thing I’m willing to bet on in this game is Ole Miss to score points.
Against LSU, the Razorbacks gave up 34. Against Mississippi State last week, they gave up 25. The last 2 quarterbacks to face Arkansas have produced 544 passing yards with a 70% completion rate and a healthy 8.2 yards-per-pass clip. Per Game on Paper, Arkansas ranks 84th nationally this season in EPA per dropback faced. The Ole Miss offense is 10th in the same statistic. Ole Miss hasn’t cracked 30 points in a game since Sept. 21. I see a number of avenues to the Rebels clearing that threshold this week against Arkansas.
Bet Ole Miss team total over 30.5 points
Air Force at No. 21 Army
Army -23 | Total: 41.5
Army should be able to pick the score in this game. The Black Nights are the best team in the American. Air Force might be one of the worst teams in the country. Per Game on Paper, Army ranks eighth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play. Air Force ranks 126th out of 134 teams. The Falcons have lost 6 straight games. The only win this season is over FCS Merrimack. They lost 34-7 to Navy earlier this season, and Army is better.
Bet Army -23
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Auburn -6.5 | Total: 48
This line makes no sense to me. My numbers say Vanderbilt by more than a field goal on a neutral field. I like Jordan-Hare Stadium, but not that much. Auburn beats a helpless Kentucky team to snap a 7-game losing streak against power conference schools and now it’s a touchdown favorite? Vanderbilt got 3 interceptions off of Jalen Milroe and Quinn Ewers, and it didn’t give up a single sack in either game against Alabama or Texas. The ‘Dores have an advantage going against the Auburn secondary, and Payton Thorne has done nothing to earn trust in close games.
Bet Vanderbilt +6.5
No. 2 Georgia vs. Florida
Georgia -16 | Total: 52
In 2 starts this season, DJ Lagway has gone for it. Against Samford in a spot start earlier this year, he threw for 456 yards and 3 touchdowns. In another start against Kentucky on Oct. 19, Lagway threw for 259 yards despite completing only 7 passes. A third of his pass attempts in those 2 starts have covered at least 20 yards through the air. Against the Wildcats, he had an average depth of target of 21 yards.
One of my biggest questions for Georgia going into the game against Texas was whether UT quarterback Quinn Ewers would be able to hit deep shots against a Georgia secondary that had previously shown a susceptibility to them. Ewers only attempted 3 passes of at least 20 air yards. He completed just 1 of them. If Florida is going to let Lagway chuck it deep, the receiver combination of Elijhah Badger, Chimere Dike, and Eugene Wilson III might find some success against Georgia. Not enough, I don’t think, to win the game but maybe enough to cover this number.
Bet Florida +16
No. 1 Oregon at Michigan
Oregon -15.5 | Total: 45.5
Colston Loveland caught 2 touchdowns and a 2-point conversion to help lift Michigan over Michigan State, 24-17. The win snapped a 2-game losing streak and saw Davis Warren return to the starting lineup. Warren completed 13 of his 19 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown — uninspiring numbers but he also didn’t turn the football over. Michigan also used Alex Orji as a runner, getting 64 yards and a score on 6 carries. Will Johnson’s status is obviously a big deal in this game, but what’s going on with the offense is more important in the context of this matchup. Michigan has to be able to put points on the board. I had wondered if Michigan would be cagey about its quarterback situation throughout the upcoming week, but coach Sherrone Moore came out and named Warren the starter on Monday.
Has Michigan turned a corner? Or did it just beat an average Michigan State team? This week will tell us. But I’m curious to see what Oregon looks like. The Ducks followed up a season-defining win over Ohio State with a shutout victory on the road. They followed up their first AP No. 1 ranking in a decade with a 38-9 beatdown of a ranked opponent. Nothing has distracted the Ducks this season. If there’s a slip-up this season, it’ll be this weekend in Ann Arbor.
Lean Michigan +15.5
UCLA at Nebraska
Nebraska -7.5 | Total: 41
The Bruins earned their first Big Ten win on Oct. 19 with a 35-32 win over Rutgers. Ethan Garbers played a flawless game, completing 32 of his 38 passes for 383 yards and 4 scores. UCLA had been trending in the right direction under first-year coach DeShaun Foster, and it finally got over the hump right before the bye week.
Now, UCLA comes across the country to face a Nebraska team in an obvious bounce-back spot. With a 14-7 win over Rutgers a few weeks ago, NU moved within a single win of earning bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016, but back-to-back road losses have left the Huskers sitting on 5 wins for several weeks now. They got blasted by Indiana, then bucked up and took the fight to Ohio State on the road in Week 9. I hated the offensive game plan for Nebraska, which also had to fight an unkind whistle. But the proof of concept for Matt Rhule was there. The Blackshirts got back to doing the things they were doing before the Indiana debacle. They have the advantage over a mostly one-dimensional UCLA offense. And UCLA’s pass defense leaves a ton to be desired.
Bet Nebraska -7.5
No. 13 Indiana at Michigan State
Indiana -7 | Total: 51
I backed dogs against Indiana in back-to-back weeks and got burned both times. From this point forward, I’m done discounting the Hoosiers, who are 8-0 and haven’t trailed for a single second all season. More, this is a bad matchup for Michigan State. The Spartans don’t take care of the football and now get to face a red-hot defense with 5 interceptions in its last 2 games. The Spartans also struggle to defend the pass, and it sounds like star IU quarterback Kurtis Rourke will be back for this game. I have Indiana by double digits.
Bet Indiana -7
Navy at Rice
Navy -12.5 | Total: 51.5
The bandwagon is pretty barren for the Midshipmen following a 51-14 beatdown suffered at the hands of Notre Dame. Two things stand out from that game. First, Navy clearly wasn’t ready for the step up in class but the good news is it won’t face another team close to that caliber the rest of the year. (Maybe Army qualifies. We’ll see on Nov. 23.) Second, Navy never had a chance because of the way it began. The Middies turned it over on both of their opening possessions and finished the game with 7 fumbles. Five of those were recovered by Notre Dame. Fumbles are fickle. They can pop at the worst times. They did for Navy last week, but the 6-turnover game came after 5 weeks of turnover-free football. Rice has just 6 takeaways in 8 games. It also gives up a ton of chunk plays on the ground. I like Navy to have a big bounce-back win.
Bet Navy -12.5
No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU
SMU -7.5 | Total: 59
SMU has beaten up on bad teams and played tight against quality opponents. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has grown into the job since replacing Preston Stone, but that unit just turned it over 6 times in a 1-point win over Duke. SMU has 9 giveaways in its last 2 games and only 2 takeaways. Pitt, notably, just took 5 interceptions off Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord. Both of these defenses are strong against the run, and both of these quarterbacks have shown a tendency to put the ball in danger. I like SMU at home, but there’s value on Pitt at 7.5.
Bet Pitt +7.5
“Bet Florida +16”
With the talent differential this number should be 35. Expect Kirby to do less with more.