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College football enters its final month of the regular season with so much still on the line and roughly 20 or so teams that all have at least a plausible path to the College Football Playoff. This weekend will start to whittle the list down. We have games throughout the top 25 that will serve as elimination games. Here’s what I’m paying attention to in Week 11.
- Last week: 4-5
- 2024 season: 48-37-1
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
Florida at No. 5 Texas
Texas -21.5 | Total: 48
When he met with reporters on Monday, Florida head coach Billy Napier said the injury quarterback DJ Lagway suffered in the Georgia game was “less significant than we anticipated” and that the staff wasn’t ruling Lagway out for this weekend’s game against Texas. With Lagway in the picture, I have this as a 2-score game, not a 3-score game, so there’s some interest here as we move through the week.
For one, a spread this large with a total that small feels representative of the perception of these 2 programs rather than the reality. Florida is playing well. The 14-point loss to Georgia isn’t indicative of how competitive that game was. Last we saw Texas, Quinn Ewers turned it over twice and the Longhorns got outscored 14-6 in the second half by Vanderbilt. A week after losing to Georgia at home, Texas didn’t look right.
The Gator defense has 8 takeaways in its last 3 outings, including 3 interceptions in each of its last 2 games. Since returning from injury, Ewers has 4 picks and 10 sacks.
Texas has an edge on the defensive side of the ball, but there’s still a question of how that defense scales against better competition. Georgia didn’t pile on the yards against Texas but it didn’t need to thanks to 4 Texas turnovers. Against the Dawgs and the ‘Dores, Texas only had 1 sack and 6 TFLs. Florida ranks 123rd in havoc rate allowed, per Game on Paper, so if Texas is just in a lull, this could be a get-right game for the defense. That’s even more likely if Florida is down to QB3 for the game.
Wait for the midweek availability report from the SEC; if Lagway is likely to play, bet Florida +21.5
No. 2 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss
Georgia -2.5 | Total: 55
The wrong team is favored here, but I understand why Georgia gets the benefit of the doubt. Ole Miss has a 3-point loss to Kentucky and a 3-point overtime loss to LSU. When Lane Kiffin says the Rebels are a few plays away from being unbeaten, he’s right. That doesn’t excuse the 2 losses, but it does give Ole Miss an added edge. This is a team that can win a Playoff game or 2, but Saturday’s home tilt with Georgia is a de facto elimination game. A third loss likely knocks the Rebels out of the picture.
Ole Miss will have the best defense Georgia has seen to this point in the season. The Rebels rank eighth nationally in success rate allowed. They lead the country in rushing efficiency (2.3 yards allowed per carry). They lead the country in TFLs (10.4 per game). And they lead the country in havoc rate. They have multiple takeaways in 7 of their last 8 games.
A higher-scoring game would certainly favor Ole Miss. Jaxson Dart can take the top off a defense and every time Carson Beck has been asked to throw the ball around the yard, he has turned it over. Beck has 4 games this season with at least 40 pass attempts and 4 games with fewer than 35 pass attempts…
- In games with at least 40 passes: 13 turnover-worthy plays, 62% completion rate
- In games with fewer than 35 passes: 1 turnover-worthy play, 71% completion rate
Beck has been remarkably poor this season when pressured, with just a 36% completion rate on his passes and an average of 4.9 yards per play. He said after the Florida game he needs to make better decisions and take what’s being given to him. Kirby Smart said Georgia needs to help its quarterback with a more balanced approach, but that will be difficult against the Rebels, particularly if Trevor Etienne is unavailable.
Bet the Ole Miss moneyline
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana
Indiana -14 | Total: 48.5
We have seen it time and time again this season. A seemingly unstoppable force breezes through an easy schedule to a brilliant record and then, in its first game against a great opponent, that team looks lost. Indiana is 9-0, but its strength of schedule ranks 103rd in the country, according to FPI. Unless Indiana beats Ohio State in Columbus on Nov. 23, it could finish the season with 11 wins and not a single victory over a team receiving votes in the final AP poll. The combined conference record of Indiana’s opponents thus far is 12-23, and 4 of those wins came from those same teams beating each other.
We don’t know what we don’t know about Indiana. But this is not the week to fade the Hoosiers, because this is not the week we learn what we don’t know. That’s next week. Michigan is 76th in new adjusted EPA per play. Michigan is 34th in FEI, .01 points above a Nebraska team that Indiana deflated at home and .02 points below a Washington team Indiana mauled at home. Michigan was missing both its starting corners for the Oregon game. If they’re limited against Indiana, the U-M defense is in trouble. Indiana is No. 1 in the FBS in EPA per dropback and No. 18 in rushing success rate. The Hoosiers are second nationally in early-downs EPA, per College Football Insiders. And they have won every single game this season by at least 14 points. A one-dimensional Michigan team isn’t changing that.
Bet Indiana -14; bet Indiana team total over 30.5 points
Georgia State at James Madison
James Madison -16.5 | Total: 54
The Panthers have lost 5 straight since upsetting Vanderbilt on Sept. 14. As a 3-point favorite and then a 3.5-point favorite in the weeks immediately following the Vandy win, Georgia State lost by 17 and by 7 points. They lost by 15 as a 9-point dog at Marshall. They lost to a bad App State team on Oct. 26 and then lost to UConn on Nov. 1.
Georgia State has one of the worst defenses in the country, and James Madison has shown an ability to blow up the scoreboard. The Dukes put 70 on North Carolina, then followed that performance up with 63 points against Ball State. They scored 39 on Coastal Carolina and 32 in Week 9 in a 17-point win over Southern Miss.
The Dukes rank 14th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, while the Panthers rank 107th. The Dukes have the best turnover margin in the country (plus-17) because they lead the FBS in takeaways (23). They stop opposing offenses before they get going. Georgia State can’t run the ball or stop the run. This could get ugly.
Bet James Madison -16.5
Temple at Tulane
Tulane -26.5 | Total: 49
Another matchup between a G5 schools at opposite ends of the spectrum. Tulane is 5-0 in conference play this season and has only suffered losses to Power conference schools (Kansas State, Oklahoma). Temple has lost 3 of its last 4 and is giving up 35.4 points per game on the season. During its 6-game winning streak, Tulane has been on a scoring bender, averaging 43 points a game. Tailback Makhi Hughes has been a key fixture throughout. He has 571 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Temple is among the poorest run defenses in the country by efficiency, allowing 5.1 yards per carry to opposing tailbacks, and it ranks 86th in EPA per run faced (per Game on Paper). Tulane could score 49 points all on its own.
Bet over 49 total points
Oklahoma State at TCU
TCU -12 | Total: 66.5
Perhaps the Cowboys have quit on their head coach. And if they hadn’t already, OSU head coach Mike Gundy dismissing disgruntled fans as people who “can’t pay their own bills” surely forced a portion of the fanbase to check out. Things are not well in Stillwater. OSU opened the season with legitimate hopes of competing for a Big 12 title and enters the month of November winless in league play. The Pokes have lost 6 straight. During the slide, they have underperformed SP+ projections by an average of 12.9 points per game. Things bottomed out last week in a 42-21 homecoming loss to Arizona State. The fanbase waited through an hours-long weather delay at halftime to see their team outscored 21-7 in the second half. Quarterback Alan Bowman was ineffective once again. Ollie Gordon ran for 25 yards on 11 carries.
Now, the Cowboys go to Fort Worth, where they haven’t won since 2016. TCU has been wildly inconsistent this season; it rallied from 17 down to beat Texas Tech on Oct. 26 and then lost to Baylor on a last-second field goal over the weekend.
Quarterback Josh Hoover has a favorable matchup awaiting him in Week 11. The sophomore has thrown for 2,947 yards this season to rank third nationally. The Cowboys, allowing 8.4 yards per pass this season, have one of the 15 worst pass efficiency defenses in the FBS. They’ve allowed more than 10 yards per pass attempt to 3 of their last 4 opponents.
The quit factor is real here. The wheels seem to have fallen off, and TCU has the ability to put the hammer down.
Bet TCU -12
Mississippi State at No. 7 Tennessee
Tennessee -24 | Total: 61.5
There’s too many points here. It feels like an overreaction. Mississippi State scored 31 against Georgia, but Carson Beck threw it 48 times and turned it over twice. Mississippi State scored 24 points on Texas A&M, but Conner Weigman was picked off twice. The Bulldogs scored 25 points on Arkansas, but Ole Miss just scored 63 on Arkansas. What happens when the Bulldogs run into a team with a defensive pulse and an offense that won’t give the ball away for free?
Tennessee’s defensive ranks this season:
- No. 1 in rushing success rate
- No. 1 in EPA per run
- No. 2 in havoc rate
- No. 2 in adjusted EPA per play
- No. 10 in EPA per dropback
The only vulnerability is in the secondary. But Arkansas is the only team this season to throw for more than 250 yards on the UT secondary. And if Mississippi State can’t run the ball, repeatedly putting a young Michael Van Buren in obvious passing situations against a tenacious Tennessee front in Knoxville is a recipe for disaster.
Tennessee’s game against Kentucky snapped a string of 4 consecutive unders cashing. That total closed at 45.5 and it cleared by half a point. Tennessee can run on Mississippi State and take the air out of a suddenly-confident offense. I think that’s the move.
Bet under 61.5 total points
No. 11 Alabama at No. 14 LSU
Alabama -3 | Total: 58.5
It’s a College Football Playoff elimination game in November, which means we should get the best of both of these teams. LSU has a loss to USC that looks worse with each week and a loss at Texas A&M that, while not disastrous on its own, compounds the issue. It’ll be tough to get in with 3 losses. Alabama has a loss to Vanderbilt that doesn’t look as bad as it once did, and a 1-score defeat on the road in Knoxville. The résumé is fine with 2 losses, but, again, 3 makes it tough. With both teams backed into a proverbial corner, it gets tougher to predict how this will play out.
On paper, Alabama has an advantage with its quarterback run game against LSU’s defense. The front has not done well fitting consistently this year (LSU is 67th in EPA per run faced) and Marcel Reed just torched the defense with his legs in the A&M game. Jalen Milroe can, when he’s on, be the best athlete on any given field. He was bad against Tennessee and South Carolina. He was much cleaner against Missouri. If he can limit the mistakes, Alabama can cause the LSU defense fits.
After the secondary was lit up by Carson Beck and Diego Pavia, the secondary has taken steps each week. Pavia completed 76.2% of his throws and averaged 12 yards a pass in the Vandy win on Oct. 5. In the 3 games Alabama has played since, opposing passers have averaged fewer and fewer yards per attempt and thrown 6 interceptions. It’s hard to take too much away from a 3-pick day against a backup quarterback, but Alabama did all but eliminate the throw game against Missouri. The Tigers completed 13 of their 24 passes for 72 yards in the shutout loss on Oct. 26.
Garrett Nussmeier is the best pure passer Alabama has faced all year. He’s probably the best pure passer Alabama will face during the regular season. A&M got 2 sacks on Nussmeier and forced 3 second-half turnovers in its Week 9 win over the Tigers, showing a little bit of mortality on the part of the LSU passer. If Alabama can do the same, we’ll see short fields and points.
Bet over 58.5 points
Oklahoma at Missouri
Missouri -1 | Total: 42
Since the coordinator change, Oklahoma has faced one of the best FBS defenses in college football and an FCS team. The Sooners scored a couple of touchdowns on Ole Miss and then put 59 points on the board against Maine at home last weekend. The Sooners averaged 8.5 yards per play and totaled 665 yards. There’s only so much that can be taken from a November game against an FCS team, but Oklahoma hadn’t gained 400 yards of offense in a game at any point prior. It hadn’t averaged more than 5 yards per play in a game since Sept. 28. It hadn’t scored more than 30 points in a game since Sept. 14. Prior to this season, hitting those marks on offense was virtually a lock for OU every single week. For a team that was desperate for some positive mojo, anything good is still good.
And now OU gets to take on a Missouri team that is battered and bruised. The Tigers gave up 34 to Alabama in a shutout loss. They gave up 41 to Texas A&M a month ago. They’re out of the College Football Playoff discussion. They’re out of the SEC title game discussion. And the health of Brady Cook is a question mark heading into the week. I just wonder how much energy Missouri will come with, particularly if Drew Pyne is forced to play again and turns the football over again.
Bet Oklahoma team total over 19.5 points
No. 9 BYU at Utah
BYU -3.5 | Total: 40.5
Utah is another Big 12 disappointment. The Utes have lost 4 straight and they haven’t cracked 20 points since visiting Stillwater on Sept. 21. Another injury to quarterback Cameron Rising has kept Utah in purgatory. True freshman Isaac Wilson has started 5 times this season, but he was replaced in the second half of a 17-14 loss to Houston 2 weekends ago. Brandon Rose replaced him, and his interception late led to Houston’s game-winning field goal as time expired. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said Monday they won’t announce anything specific on the quarterback front ahead of the game. BYU could see Wilson, or it could see Rose. The unbeaten Cougars probably aren’t fretting either.
Rose has barely played for Utah. Now in his third season with the program, the 15 passes he threw against Houston were the first of his collegiate career. Wilson has completed 55% of his passes this season with 8 interceptions to go with 8 touchdowns.
Utah fired its offensive coordinator early this year. Injuries have mounted again. The team has generally been sloppy. And BYU has punished teams this season for sloppy play. BYU has 18 takeaways and has shown an ability to score in all 3 phases. Utah doesn’t defend the run, struggles to do anything on offense, and can’t really rely on its special teams.
Bet BYU -3.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
