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The theme in Week 2 for most seemed to be near disaster. Alabama was wildly inconsistent for most of its game against South Florida. Notre Dame outright lost. Oregon struggled again. Penn State almost lost at home. Michigan looked dreadful. Oklahoma almost lost at home. Kansas State almost lost. Kansas did lose. Arizona trailed Northern Arizona at halftime at home. Iowa lost. Georgia Tech lost.
It was a weird week. Welcome back, college football chaos. You were missed.
Here’s an early look at Week 3.
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
No. 14 Kansas State vs. No. 20 Arizona (Fri., 8 p.m. ET, FOX)
Kansas State -7 | Total: 57 | Moneyline: KState -258, Arizona +210
After exploding for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns in Arizona’s opener, Tetairoa McMillan was limited to 2 catches and 11 yards in Arizona’s 22-10 win over Northern Arizona. New Mexico gave McMillan plenty of 1-on-1 looks. The Lumberjacks mixed coverages and threw several defenders at McMillan en route to a career-low day for the junior.
Through 2 weeks, quarterback Noah Fifita has been blitzed on 72% of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. In the Week 1 win, Fifita was lethal when the defense brought pressure and the offensive line did well to keep him relatively clean. NAU blitzed Fifita equally as often, and the coverage played on McMillan kept Fifita from getting to his favorite target.
Kansas State has a team-wide coverage grade of 69.8 this season from PFF, 79th in the nation. Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah completed 19 of his 28 passes against the Wildcats in Week 2 for 342 yards and 2 scores. Outside receivers Mario Williams and Donte Fleming combined for 10 catches on 12 targets for 225 yards.
The Wildcats’ ability to crowd Fifita and slow McMillan is the key.
Mensah was blitzed on 43% of his dropbacks against the Wildcats and really struggled. Faced with pressure, he had a 27.4 PFF grade with 2 turnover-worthy plays. Against UT-Martin in Week 1, Kansas State was much more conservative, choosing to blitz quarterback Kinkead Dent only twice.
Fifita was outstanding when blitzed last season, completing 72.4% of his throws with 16 touchdowns against 4 picks and an average of 9.8 yards per attempt. He got the ball out quick and was among the best in the Pac-12 at keeping pressures from turning into sacks.
Kansas State’s Tobi Osunsanmi and Brendan Mott have been excellent off the edge to begin the year. Jacob Parrish is the Wildcats’ only corner with a coverage grade above 66 from PFF, and McMillan has 7 inches of height on Parrish. At the other corner sport, Keenan Garber has given up 3 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown already this season. The Wildcats aren’t getting their hands on passes, either.
I like McMillan in this matchup. But the offensive line is a question mark. Starting left tackle Rhino Tapa’atoutai missed the NAU game, forcing the Wildcats to flip their right tackle over. Center Josh Baker also missed the game and snapped what was a 28-start streak. Arizona needs both.
If the first-team offensive line plays, Arizona has a good chance to win the game outright. I’m backing the U of A at +7 at bet365. Jump on the early number, I expect it to go down throughout the week. DraftKings was at 7.5 Sunday night and it had already moved to 7 Monday morning. FanDuel is already at 6.5.
Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Alabama (noon ET, FOX)
Alabama -15.5 | Total: 51 | Moneyline: Alabama -750, Wisconsin +525
The Badgers have a 28-14 win over Western Michigan and a 27-13 win over South Dakota to begin their season. Wisconsin ranks 16th out of 18 Big Ten teams in yards per play and 14th in yards per play allowed. Phil Longo’s Air Raid offense has an explosive play rate of 7.3% through the first 2 games. Against Western Michigan in the opener, Wisconsin ran 82 plays and did not produce a single 20-yard gain. (Ohio State’s backups produced 3 against the same WMU team.)
Now, the Badgers get to face one of college football’s most explosive offenses. The Crimson Tide weren’t exactly perfect in their win over South Florida, but the way they raced away from the Bulls over the final 7 minutes highlighted just how fiery things can get when the switch is flipped.
Over the last 6 minutes and 45 seconds of that game, Alabama had 164 yards on 6 plays.
Wisconsin’s run defense has been a concern through 2 weeks. South Dakota tailbacks Charles Pierre Jr. and Keyondray Jones-Logan had a rushing success rate of 69% against the Badgers’ front.
With Tyler Van Dyke struggling to really assert himself so far (58% completion rate in the opener, 17.9 QBR in Week 2) and the defense looking shaky, Alabama could sprint out to a big lead in Madison.
Take the over at FanDuel, which had the total at 50.5 at the time of publication. Of the previous 29 games the Crimson Tide have played, 20 of them have cleared 50.5 points.
Florida State vs. Memphis (noon ET, ESPN)
Florida State -5.5 | Total: 52 | Moneyline: Florida State -285, Memphis +230
Memphis has a legitimate opportunity to win this game. Bill Connelly’s SP+ has the margin at just 2 points.
Nothing went well for FSU over its first 2 weeks of the season. The Seminoles lost 24-21 to Georgia Tech in Ireland, then lost 28-13 to Boston College at home. They’ve been outgained on a per play basis 5.9 to 5.0 and mobile quarterbacks have proven to be a significant issue for the defensive front.
Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan won’t present the same challenge. He has only 6 rushing attempts in 2 games. But Mario Anderson Jr. is challenge enough. He had 125 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries against Troy in Week 2 — the leader of a rushing attack that produced 7.3 yards a play and a 27.6% explosive run rate.
Florida State blitzed Haynes King 5 times on 16 dropbacks in Week 0 and then blitzed Thomas Castellanos 7 times on 23 dropbacks in Week 1. They only have 3 sacks in 2 games however, and Henigan is pretty impervious to the blitz now in his fourth year as a starter.
There’s so much attention on DJ Uiagalelei and the offense, but it almost seems like people are too eager to make wisecracks at Uiagalelei’s expense. The defense is a significant issue. No one expected FSU’s new quarterback to look like Jordan Travis, but the plan made sense on paper because everyone expected this defense to hold up. It has not. The run defense is currently grading out as the 12th-worst in the country, per PFF. The coverage has the 11th-worst grade. Until we see any sign that side of the ball is steadying the ship, backing one of the country’s top offenses is a safe play. Take Memphis +5.5 at ESPN Bet.
Texas Tech vs. North Texas (noon ET, FS1)
Texas Tech -9.5 | Total: 68.5 | Moneyline: Texas Tech -345, North Texas +275
Tech is teetering. The Red Raiders needed overtime to defeat Abilene Christian in their opener at home. In Week 2, tailback Tahj Brooks was unavailable and Tech lost to Washington State 37-16. In the defeat to the Cougars, Wazzu quarterback John Mateer ran for 197 yards.
In the second quarter, Tech turned it over on downs at its own 43 and Wazzu hit for a long touchdown run on the immediately ensuing play. On the next play from scrimmage, Tech fumbled the football and it was returned to the 2-yard-line. Wazzu scored again to take a 21-3 lead and Tech never recovered.
Week 1 saw the Red Raider defense hit for 506 yards through the air. They dropped 8 men into coverage to try and right the ship in Week 2 and saw the defense hit for 306 yards on the ground.
“We’re our own worst enemy right now,” coach Joey McGuire said after the game. “You don’t have a chance to win a game when you’re doing the things we’re doing, playing the way we’re playing.”
Turnovers weren’t an issue in Week 1. They were in Week 2. Penalties have been a recurring problem. Tech has tried to convert on fourth down 8 different times in 2 games and has been successful on just 2 of them. This is a team searching for its way.
Brooks’ status looms large in Week 3. But North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris might be the more immediate concern. The junior has 737 yards and 7 touchdowns in his first 2 games. Coach Eric Morris had North Texas among the nation’s leading offenses last season and they’re currently more efficient this season than they were last (6.5 yards per play in 2023, 6.9 in 2024).
This is also a homecoming for Eric Morris, who spent 5 years with the Red Raiders.
North Texas has given up 58 points in 2 games against South Alabama and Stephen F. Austin, so this isn’t necessarily an upset spot, but the Mean Green can give Tech another uncomfortable game in an offensive shootout. I like North Texas +9.5 wherever you can get it.
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 24 Boston College (12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Missouri -16.5 | Total: 54 | Moneyline: Missouri -800, Boston College +550
Under Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri is 5-8 against the spread as a double-digit favorite at home. The Tigers haven’t lost any of those games straight up, but they haven’t necessarily performed to expectations. Boston College, meanwhile, is 7-8 against the spread in its last 15 games as a double-digit road dog.
Through the first 2 weeks of the 2024 season, Missouri has yet to allow a single point. The Tigers have also only given up 82 passing yards on 35 attempts. Murray State wasn’t much better in the pass game after facing Missouri, but Buffalo threw for 195 yards in Week 1 and only 55 in Week 2 against Mizzou.
Now, Thomas Castellanos and a soaring Boston College team come to town. The Eagles defeated Florida State in Week 1 and then beat Duquesne 56-0 in Week 2. By SP+ projections, Boston College is one of the country’s biggest overachievers through 2 weeks. Castellanos has been huge to start the season, throwing for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns without an interception while running for 81 and another touchdown. He’s currently third nationally in Total QBR and has the best passing grade of any quarterback in the country from PFF.
The battle between Castellanos and Mizzou’s defense will be one of the best around on Saturday. Missouri’s defense has dominated early downs in the early going and has one of the best Eckel rates in the country.
BC has probably been a little lucky to start. Missouri isn’t nearly as flawed as Florida State. And the Mizzou offense still hasn’t yet kicked into top gear. Take the Tigers at home.
Oregon State vs. No. 9 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
Oregon -16 | Total: 50 | Moneyline: Oregon -850, Oregon State +575
The Ducks have underperformed their SP+ projections by nearly 50 points in 2 games. They’re struggling to finish drives with points, struggling to produce chunk plays down the field, struggling to contain big plays on defense, and struggling to protect their quarterback. They beat Boise State on a last-second field goal in a game where special teams produced a kickoff return touchdown and a punt return touchdown. This looks nothing like the Oregon teams we have seen in recent years.
Now they go on the road with all their problems to play a rivalry game in what will be a hostile environment. Oregon State (2-0) strong-armed San Diego State on the road in a 21-0 victory in Week 2, giving up just 3.7 yards per play. The Beavs have given up only 3 red zone trips in 2 games and allowed just 1 score on those 3 trips.
Oregon has a talent advantage, but Oregon has had a talent advantage and that hasn’t been enough to overcome all the mistakes it has made. We’re fading the Ducks until they give us a reason not to. It’s quite possible that’s this weekend against Oregon State in a game that means a little more to everyone involved. For now, take the Beavs +16.5 at BetMGM.
Purdue vs. No. 18 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Notre Dame -11.5 | Total: 45.5 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -470, Purdue +360
Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard hit 4 of his first 5 passes and ran 5 times to produce 73 total yards on the opening drive of last Saturday’s game against Northern Illinois. The Irish had a 7-0 lead right off the bat in a game where they were a 4-touchdown favorite. On the 10 possessions that followed, Leonard averaged 4.6 yards per pass attempt with a 59% completion rate and had 4 carries for 6 yards. He was sacked twice. He was picked off twice.
Through 2 games, Leonard has a 45.3 Total QBR. His Week 3 opponent, Purdue, gave up only 50 yards through the air in its Week 1 game and then hit an early bye week. Notre Dame is 1 of only 5 teams in the country without a passing touchdown thus far and 1 of only 2 teams without multiple 20-yard pass plays. In Week 1, Notre Dame won thanks in part to 2 takeaways from the defense. In Week 2, Notre Dame gave it away twice and didn’t produce a takeaway.
The Boilermakers are 13-7-1 against the spread since 2014 with a rest advantage. They’ve had a week to prepare for Notre Dame and have more usable tape of the Irish than the Irish have of them. I like Purdue in this spot, especially with Caesars‘ line at Purdue +12.5.
Florida Atlantic vs. FIU (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
FAU -6 | Total: 44 | Moneyline: FAU -198, FIU +164
I’m taking Florida International on the moneyline. The Panthers were a field goal underdog against Central Michigan in Week 2 and won 52-16. Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, has 17 combined points in its first 2 games.
Of course, competition isn’t equal. FAU played Michigan State in Week 1 and a good Army team in Week 2. FIU lost 31-7 at Indiana in Week 1 and then faced a mid-tier MAC team.
But FAU isn’t equipped to take advantage of FIU’s defensive deficiency. The Hoosiers ran for 234 yards and 3 scores on 40 attempts in Week 1 — 60 more than what FAU has in 2 games and 63 attempts.
The Owls threw 37 pass attempts in their comeback attempt against Army and 25 in Week 1. They’ll face an FIU secondary that has the top coverage grade in the country through 2 weeks (PFF) and has already created 5 interceptions.
Florida Atlantic was gashed repeatedly in the run game last week, and FIU found a rhythm going to the ground early and often against Central Michigan. I like the Panthers to run the ball, create some takeaways, and end what is currently a 6-game losing streak to FAU.
Wake Forest vs. No. 5 Ole Miss (6:30 p.m. ET, The CW)
Ole Miss -23 | Total: 63.5 | Moneyline: Ole Miss -2400, Wake Forest +1200
Ole Miss leads the country in scoring offense and offensive efficiency. Jaxson Dart has 34 pass plays of at least 10 yards in 2 games. The Rebels are 2-0 against the spread to open the season despite both spreads being north of 40 points. Dart set an SEC record for consecutive completions in a game last week; he’s in a serious rhythm to open the season.
I don’t think going on the road will force him out of the groove he’s in. In its Week 2 loss to Virginia, Wake Forest allowed UVA quarterback Anthony Colandrea to complete 77% of his passes for 357 yards and 3 scores. Colandrea averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt and produced 10 explosive plays with the pass. The Rebels should once again roll. Back Ole Miss even as a huge favorite on the road.
Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Vanderbilt -10 | Total: 46 | Moneyline: Vanderbilt -410, Georgia State +320
It’s the Diego Pavia show in Nashville and the Commodores are surging with confidence. The 55-0 win over Alcorn was the first shutout for the program since 2019 and the largest margin of victory in a game since 2012. Pavia ran for 51 yards and a touchdown while completing 10 of his 13 passes. Vandy took the football away twice and gave up just 71 yards of total offense.
The quality of the opponent determined the degree of statistical domination, but there’s something to be said about the ‘Dores opening the season with so much juice. They have scored points on 13 of their 20 offensive possessions so far, created 3 takeaways, and forced teams into an 8-for-24 start on third down.
Georgia State was easily handled by Georgia Tech in its opener and needed a late touchdown march to survive Chattanooga in Week 2. Vanderbilt hasn’t opened a season 3-0 since 2017, but Pavia might have this squad believing in big things. The ‘Dores are 2-0 against the spread so far and coach Clark Lea said after Saturday’s win the team is playing with a chip on its shoulder. There’s something intangible in Pavia’s leadership.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
