All eyes turn to the SEC in Week 8, where 4 ranked teams play on the road and we get 2 matchups between teams ranked inside the AP Top 11. In the preseason, a Georgia-Texas SEC Championship Game seemed like the most likely outcome. With Georgia already losing to Alabama, a second loss this weekend in Austin might put the Dawgs behind the 8 ball. With LSU facing a strong Arkansas team in Fayetteville and Alabama going up against Tennessee, we could have some pretty consequential results in the SEC this weekend.
Outside of the SEC, we only have 1 ranked-on-ranked matchup this weekend. Still, there are several games that caught my eye. Here’s an early look at the market in Week 8, and our résumé so far.
- Last week: 4-3
- 2024 season: 33-27-1
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
No. 2 Oregon at Purdue
Oregon -27.5 | Total: 59
This is a classic letdown spot for the Ducks. They’re coming off an emotional win, having beaten Ohio State 32-31 last Saturday. Now they have to go across the country on a short week to face a significantly inferior team. SP+ has the Ducks winning by 26 points, which, if you live and breathe Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, would point to Purdue.
But Purdue is also coming off a game in which it expended an awful lot of energy to claw back from a 27-3 hole, force overtime, and then ultimately lose. The Boilermakers are 0-3 in Big Ten play, 1-5 on the season, and will also be working with a short week. Notre Dame beat the Boilers by 59. Wisconsin beat the Boilers by 56!
I think Oregon is ascending, and I trust the guy from the Kirby Smart School of Coaching to have his group’s mentality right after a big result. More than anything, though, there is just wide enough talent disparity at play here to feel comfortable backing the Ducks as a 4-score favorite.
Illinois put up 556 yards of offense on the Purdue defense and converted 8 of its 12 third downs. Purdue’s defense ranks 122nd in yards allowed per rushing attempt this season. That unit has given up 19 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, 300 rushing yards twice, and more than 200 rushing yards 3 times. Three of the 5 FBS teams they have faced have dropped 50 on them.
With Jordan James starting to hit his stride and Oregon’s offensive line paving the way, this could be a 40-10 kind of game where Purdue doesn’t threaten until garbage time.
Through his first 2 seasons, Dan Lanning was 8-0 against the spread as a favorite of 20 points or more. To start this year, Oregon is 0-3 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more. Two of those ATS defeats came in the weeks leading up to the Ohio State game where Oregon was in “show as little as possible” mode. The Ducks just scored 32 on an excellent Ohio State defense. They’re hitting their stride.
Bet Oregon -27.5
Oklahoma State at No. 13 BYU
BYU -9.5 | Total: 55
Head coach Mike Gundy told reporters on Monday that Oklahoma State was getting “all” of its quarterbacks “good, quality work” and would make a decision by Thursday evening on who would be the team’s starting quarterback when they take the field in Provo.
The Cowboys were a darkhorse Playoff team in the preseason, but the pieces haven’t fit right and they’ve lost 3 straight games to open Big 12 play. Things bottomed out at home against West Virginia in Week 6, when Alan Bowman threw 2 interceptions and the Cowboys fell into a 24-0 hole just 25 minutes into the game. Cowboys fans have wanted Bowman, a seventh-year senior with a penchant for throwing picks off his back foot, benched for weeks. In the bye week, all kinds of rumors swirled about what was happening at quarterback.
I call that a perfect storm for a team having to prep on a short week. BYU could see Bowman. It could see Garret Rangel, the guy who replaced Bowman in the WVU game and went 4-of-5 for 75 yards and a score. Or it could see redshirt freshman Zane Flores. Gundy opening the door to any of the 3 on Monday felt like gamesmanship.
Oklahoma State still has the reigning Doak Walker Award winner at tailback, it still has a veteran offensive line, and it still has a collection of talented receivers. Be it Bowman’s interceptions or offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn’s baffling playcalling, Oklahoma State hasn’t been able to make the most of its talent on offense.
BYU could make this all moot. Only 4 FBS teams have more interceptions than the Cougars this season. Throughout their 6-0 start, they’ve been able to hit teams with avalanches. In a 38-9 win over Kansas State, BYU scored 28 points in 7 minutes of game time thanks to a fumble return, an interception, and a 90-yard punt return. Against Baylor, they scored 21 points in the first 12 minutes of the game. In a 41-19 win over Arizona, they ended the first quarter trailing 7-0 and went into the fourth quarter leading 27-10. In all 3 phases, BYU has punished teams for mistakes.
Oklahoma State makes too many mistakes. But Gundy is also at his most dangerous when he is counted out, and over the course of his career, his Cowboys are 39-8 straight up when they have a rest advantage. This number was 8.5 on Sunday night and it shot to 10 on Monday. I think there’s a wide range of outcomes here, so I’m looking to play BYU’s team point total. Whether in a blowout or an unexpectedly close game, Oklahoma State is going to give up points.
Bet BYU team total over 32.5
Virginia at No. 10 Clemson
Clemson -21 | Total: 57.5
Clemson has been rolling teams, but they haven’t played a quality opponent since Week 1. The 4 ACC teams Clemson has beaten are a combined 3-11 in league play. App State is 0-3 against the Sun Belt. None of Clemson’s last 5 opponents sit above 63rd in the latest SP+ ratings. Virginia is 4-2 on the year and 2-1 in league play. It lost by 4 points to Louisville and by just 14 to the good version of Maryland. Some want to fade Clemson this week, but I’m not convinced Virginia is anything different from what Clemson has been playing. The Cavaliers sit 61st in SP+, they rank 100th in net success rate, and they don’t have any clear matchup advantages.
Since 2009, Swinney is 33-38 against the spread as a favorite of 20 points or more, so there’s reason to be skeptical. But Clemson has been killing teams with big plays, and I don’t see Virginia slowing those down. The Cavs have given up 29 plays this season of 20 yards or more. I like the first-half spread at DraftKings, which is currently sitting at Clemson -11.5. The Tigers have outscored teams 169-48 in the first half during the 5-game winning streak.
Bet Clemson -11.5 in the first half
Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana
Indiana -6.5 | Total: 50.5
The Hoosiers have not trailed at any point throughout their 6-0 start. And they are outscoring teams 73-0 in the first quarter. Indiana ranks second in the country in net success rate, per Game on Paper. It has a quarterback in Kurtis Rourke who ranks second nationally in QBR. And it has a defense that has given up the sixth-fewest scrimmage plays of 10 yards or more in the country. Indiana doesn’t give the football to its opponent, and it asks its opponent to be laborious as it drives the length of the field. The defense has only allowed 11 red zone trips in 6 games.
In short, they’ve asked their opponents to play a perfect game to beat them. No one has to this point. Nebraska will be the first legitimate defense Rourke has faced to this point in the season. Maryland and Northwestern are the only teams whose defenses rank in the top 50 in SP+. Nebraska ranks first. Nebraska is the only team in the country that hasn’t yet allowed a rushing touchdown. The Huskers are fourth in rushing efficiency allowed (2.7 a carry) and 18th in passes defended per game (5.3).
The defense will keep Nebraska in every game. But this spot might be asking too much of true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola. I like the under in this game.
Bet under 50.5 total points
No. 6 Miami at Louisville
Miami -4 | Total: 61
Miami has a huge advantage going against this Louisville secondary. When the Canes got in trouble against Virginia Tech and then Cal, it was because of lackadaisical play from quarterback Cam Ward. The Heisman hopeful had 2 interceptions and 2 sacks in his first 4 games. In the last 2, Ward has turned the ball over 4 times and been sacked 6 times. Miami had 2 first-quarter turnovers against Virginia Tech that set the table for a near upset.
The positive for Miami is those kinds of issues are quickly fixable. The bye week came at a good time. On the other side of it, Ward will see a defense that has only gotten hands on 15 pass attempts all season (124th nationally in passes defended per game). Louisville has only forced 6 turnovers in 6 games, and they’ve been incredibly lucky to even have that many (4 recoveries on 5 opponent fumbles). Louisville has made its living on third downs, but big-play susceptibility could be an issue against Ward. I see a ton of value here on Miami at such a low number.
Bet Miami -4
East Carolina at No. 23 Army
Army -15 | Total: 51.5
Maybe UAB has quit on Trent Dilfer. Maybe the Blazers, who have been outscored 115-30 in the last 2 games, have just thrown in the towel and there isn’t much to be gleaned from a 44-10 Army victory. That would be a fine assessment if this was the first time Army has made an opponent look helpless this season. It’s not. The Black Knights are winning by an average of 29.8 points per game throughout their 6-0 start. Quarterback Bryson Daily is fourth nationally in QBR, piloting an offense that leads the nation in success rate.
East Carolina ranks 11th in defensive success rate, but after completely shutting down its first 3 opponents on the ground, the Pirates have given up 519 rushing yards in the last 3 games. Charlotte ran for 311 yards and 6 touchdowns to win 55-24 last weekend. Weirder yet, Charlotte was an 8.5-point dog in the game.
No quarterback in the country has more interceptions (12) or turnover-worthy plays (16) than ECU quarterback Jake Garcia. We’re starting to see more of a premium price on Army and Navy in recent weeks — Army is 6-0 ATS this year, beating the number by an average of 14.8 points — but I still don’t think the market has quite caught up to how good they are.
Bet Army -15
South Carolina at Oklahoma
Oklahoma -3 | Total 40.5
Two really good defenses against 2 offenses that just can’t help themselves. The total in this game looks like it belongs on an Iowa game. According to my colleague, Spenser Davis, Oklahoma hasn’t had a game since 2006 with a total under 41. And yet it’s probably deserved. The Sooners have been held under 20 points now 3 times in its first 6 games. Prior to this year, they had been held under 20 points in a game only 3 times since the start of the 2016 season (105 games).
It doesn’t sound like OU plans to go back to Jackson Arnold, and it’s fair to say at this point Michael Hawkins Jr. is not far enough along in his development to overcome all the issues around him. Oklahoma’s play-calling has been heavily criticized. Oklahoma’s offensive line has been battered and broken by pressure. Hawkins has no one to throw to. And the run game completely disappears for long stretches.
I think the wrong team is favored. Oklahoma can’t block anyone right now (20 sacks allowed) and South Carolina’s defensive front poses a number of issues. They have 19 sacks and 44 tackles for loss. The Gamecocks might struggle to move the ball on Oklahoma’s defense, but their issues on that side of the ball are far less dire than Oklahoma’s. South Carolina has a 3-point loss and a 2-point loss to a pair of teams currently sitting in the AP Top 10.
Bet South Carolina +3
No. 7 Alabama at No. 11 Tennessee
Alabama -2.5 | Total: 56
I like Tennessee outright in this spot. Alabama’s recent performances are off-putting, more so than Tennessee’s. Alabama got pushed around a bit at the line of scrimmage by South Carolina. Remove the sack yardage and Alabama was outgained on the ground 4.6 to 3.7 by the Gamecocks. Consider, too, that Jalen Milroe has been sacked 6 times in his last 2 games.
Tennessee has been sputtering on offense, but one of the best defenses in the country and one of the best running backs in the country creates a couple of situational advantages even as a home dog. Dylan Sampson is awesome. Only Ashton Jeanty has more rushing touchdowns than Sampson (15), who is also averaging nearly 6 yards a carry as the workhorse back in the Vols’ offense. And the UT defensive line should be able to produce plenty of negative plays to keep Alabama in this mode of “all or nothing” offense.
The question becomes whether Nico Iamaleava can rise to the occasion and make some plays against the Alabama secondary. He had a QBR of 17.5 in the overtime win over Florida and a QBR of 38.2 in the loss to Arkansas. Tennessee needs to stay on schedule, but it also just needs Iamaleava to hit some of these throws that have been available to him. He’s 2-for-10 on throws of 20-plus yards in his last 2 games. Playing this game inside Neyland Stadium is huge for Iamaleava.
While both of these sides have been trending in the wrong direction of late, 1 of them at least has answers on 1 side of the football. That’s the side you back.
Bet Tennessee +2.5
No. 8 LSU at Arkansas
LSU -3 | Total: 55
The first 3 games of the season for Arkansas all cleared the point total. The last 3 games have all seen the under hit. Yes, Arkansas is allowing just 16 points a game against SEC opponents so far, but all 3 of the offenses have found Arkansas at horrible times. Auburn was still turning the football over like candy. Texas A&M had no pass game with Marcel Reed running the show. And Tennessee… We’re still trying to figure out what happened to Tennessee. LSU’s offense comes into this matchup rolling. The Tigers are 16th nationally in EPA per dropback (Game on Paper) and 17th in passing success rate. Garrett Nussmeier is untouchable in the pocket right now and playing with a great deal of confidence. And the Arkansas defensive profile reads as nothing more than average. I think we’ll see some points in this game.
Lean over 55 total points
No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas
Texas -3.5 | Total: 56
This game will get a more extensive preview later in the week. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers shook off the rust last week against Oklahoma, and I think he’ll be able to take advantage of a Georgia secondary that is a bit more gettable than it has been in the past. Per Game on Paper, Georgia ranks 51st in passing success rate allowed and 75th in EPA per dropback. The Longhorns have the best offensive line Georgia will see this season, and they have a defense that excels at generating havoc. If Texas wins the line of scrimmage in this game, 3.5 points probably isn’t enough.
Bet Texas -3.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
