Betting Stuff: Storylines to consider ahead of Ohio State-Penn State clash
In the 21-17 win over Nebraska last Saturday, freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith caught his eighth touchdown pass of the season. It tied him with former Ohio State wide receiver Cris Carter for the most receiving touchdowns by an Ohio State true freshman wideout in a season.
Smith has 5 regular-season games left to play.
He has a touchdown catch in each of his first 7 games this season for the Buckeyes, the first true freshman wideout to do that since 2005. He has at least 3 catches in every game this season. He has at least 70 yards in every game this season.
In short order, Smith has become one of the most sensational wide receivers in the sport. And he’s not even the leading target-getter in his own offense. That honor belongs to Emeka Egbuka. Throw in Carnell Tate, who would be a WR1 on just about any other team in the country, and Ohio State has arguably the best group of receivers in college football this season.
This Saturday, that group of pass-catchers will face a Penn State defense that ranks 36th nationally in passing success rate allowed and 29th in EPA per dropback faced. Penn State has given up the 14th-fewest passing plays of at least 20 yards in the country, but it has not faced a collection of skill talent quite like this.
And that’s only 1 of about a dozen intriguing storylines that will color this weekend’s top-5 showdown between No. 3 Penn State (7-0) and No. 4 Ohio State (6-1) inside Beaver Stadium. This game has the potential to shape the Big Ten Championship picture and influence the College Football Playoff race. Kickoff is set for noon ET on FOX
Here are a few storylines to consider before betting on the game.
Drew Allar’s status
At his Monday press conference, Penn State coach James Franklin said Allar could be a gametime decision. The Nittany Lions’ starting quarterback suffered a knee injury late in the first half of last week’s 28-13 win over Wisconsin and was replaced by Beau Pribula.
“He’s played enough football for us that that (injury) timeline will go all the way up to the game, really,” Franklin said. “I do think from a practice perspective, no matter where we’re at on Tuesday, we’re going to have to get both of those guys reps on Tuesday and Wednesday. But it’s too early to tell, really.”
Allar has completed 71% of his throws this season for 1,640 yards and 12 touchdowns with 4 interceptions. Allar has taken more chances this season (only 2 picks in all of 2023) and has no doubt benefited from the addition of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. He’s averaging career bests for completion rate and yards per pass. He’s been outstanding on straight dropbacks. He’s been efficient on throws beyond 10 yards. And he looks much more confident delivering the ball under pressure.
Allar ranks 10th among qualified FBS passers in Total QBR this season. He’s also 22nd nationally in EPA.
It’s entirely possible Franklin is playing games with Ohio State. Pribula offers more of a running option and likely changes the structure a bit. Allar makes Penn State more dangerous through the air. If Ohio State has to prepare for both, Kotelnicki has an upper hand.
Beau Pribula’s fit
If Pribula is the guy for Penn State, he’ll be making his first career start in one of the biggest games of Franklin’s Penn State tenure. That’s a lot to put on a young quarterback’s shoulders.
But Kotelnicki can help. And it might not actually be a death knell for the Nittany Lions if their starter can’t go. Pribula plugging into the offense, with the right adjustments from Kotelnicki, could unlock the best parts of Penn State’s unit.
Pribula went 11-for-13 for 98 yards and a touchdown through the air against Wisconsin, and he ran it 6 times for 28. When Pribula came in, Kotelnicki drew up some more read plays for Pribula that put Wisconsin in conflict a bit more.
In the first half, Penn State ran it 14 times for just 46 yards (3.3 a carry). In the second half, Penn State ran 21 times against 13 pass plays and averaged 6 yards a carry.
When you look at Penn State’s skill talent, you see more in the backfield than you do out wide. The team’s leading receiver is a tight end. Harrison Wallace III is the only receiver with more than 15 receptions on the season. Frankly, no one scares defenses in the PSU receiver room.
Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton can change games, though. Those 2 have combined for 992 yards and 7 touchdowns at 5.6 yards per carry. If Penn State is forced to roll with Pribula, Kotelnicki will have to design a gameplan that leans even more into the ground game. Does that ultimately help Penn State? It would certainly shorten the game and make this a bit lower scoring than the alternative.
I don’t see a scenario in which Penn State chooses to roll with Pribula if Allar is available. But Allar has to feel 100%. He has to be mobile enough to escape when Ohio State inevitably tries to heat him up. The Buckeyes turned up the pressure last week against Nebraska, and if DC Jim Knowles sticks with that, Penn State needs a guy who can be decisive and elusive.
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Ohio State’s offensive line is in trouble
Ohio State lost left tackle Josh Simmons to a season-ending injury 2 weeks ago. Then, in the Nebraska game, Simmons’ replacement had to be carted off the field with an injury. Donovan Jackson bumped out from guard to tackle and Luke Montgomery filled in at guard. Zen Michalski struggled so much prior to the injury that even if he is healthy this week, Ohio State might have to look elsewhere.
Against Nebraska, Ohio State averaged 2.6 rushing yards per carry (adjusted for sacks). And as the game wore on, it almost seemed like Chip Kelly was of the mindset that Ohio State was going to run the football or it was going to die trying. Jeremiah Smith had 2 targets in the second half, both of which came early in the third. Ohio State didn’t look deep even after hitting some explosive plays in the pass game early.
Quinshon Judkins averaged 2.9 yards a carry. TreVeyon Henderson averaged 2.5 a carry. The run defense Penn State presents Ohio State with on Saturday — third nationally in rushing success rate allowed (Game on Paper) — will be better than the one Nebraska hit Ohio State with this past weekend. And if Ohio State can’t run the football against an aggressive PSU defense, things will get uncomfortable.
I wonder if this is a game where we see more of Will Howard in the run plan. Part of the appeal with Howard was his mobility. Last year at Kansas State, he had 351 rushing yards and 9 scores. He had a 100-yard day on the ground against Oklahoma State on Oct. 6, 2023.
Howard has just 91 rushing yards this season for the Buckeyes. He has at least 8 carries in each of his last 3 games, but none have popped. Ohio State couldn’t get the ground game going against Penn State last season (79 yards on 41 attempts) but it didn’t have a guy like Howard who could at least diversify the run looks.
Will Ohio State keep the pressure on?
When Ohio State lost to Oregon, the defensive front was the center of attention. The Buckeyes couldn’t put pressure on Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel and struggled to generate much action in the Oregon backfield. They finished with 2 tackles for loss and 0 sacks. They didn’t bring a ton of extra bodies, instead opting to keep the structure of their defense intact. Gabriel was blitzed on 36% of his dropbacks.
Against Nebraska, Ohio State looked more aggressive. The first third down Nebraska faced to begin the game saw Ohio State bring the blitz. The Buckeyes tried to heat up Raiola throughout the game. They finished with 3 sacks and 13 tackles for loss.
The TFLs seem a bit misleading if only because of the sheer volume of throws Nebraska attempted at or behind the line of scrimmage. Nebraska’s play-caller leaned on a broken screen game against an Ohio State defense that had better athletes and more often had the numbers. (Over a quarter of Raiola’s throws this season are behind the line of scrimmage. Allar is at 15%.)
Can the Buckeyes do the same thing against a Penn State group that has given up the third-fewest TFLs of any FBS team?
The other angle here is how that pressure impacts the coverage on the backend. Ohio State’s corners got bullied in the loss to Oregon in Week 7. They again looked poor against Nebraska last week. In man coverage, Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun have gotten beat or gotten flagged far too often in recent weeks.
Does Penn State have the dudes to beat Ohio State’s corners?
Ohio State’s corners have to be better in coverage, but it’s fair to wonder if Penn State has the wideouts to expose them. Julian Fleming (10 catches, 3 drops) has been a major disappointment. Harrison Wallace III is the only PSU receiver who has more than 15 receptions this season. Omari Evans is averaging 21.5 yards per reception this season, but after appearing to break out in the nonconference portion of PSU’s schedule (8 catches, 201 yards), Evans has been nonexistent in league play. He had 3 combined receptions for 31 yards in the Illinois, UCLA, and USC games and then didn’t see a target against Wisconsin last week.
Instead, Liam Clifford has stepped up. He had 3 receptions for 107 yards against UCLA, 3 receptions against USC, and 3 more receptions against Wisconsin. He doesn’t have a drop this season and has made contested catches on 2 of the 3 contested targets that have come his way.
Clifford spends the majority of his time in the slot, where he could match up with Ohio State’s Jordan Hancock. The senior has been Ohio State’s best corner in coverage this season. Last week, he moved back to safety to cover for the injured Lathan Ransom, but Ransom looks like he’ll at least have a chance to play on Saturday. Day has said that Ransom is full-go in practice this week.
Penn State’s pass game wants to operate through tight end Tyler Warren and the tailbacks out of the backfield. Against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions will find stiff opposition. The Buckeyes have athletes at safety and linebacker who should be able to hang with their men. And the Nittany Lions will find it tough to line up and run on Ohio State, a defense that ranks 11th nationally in rushing success rate allowed.
Someone needs to step up on the outside.
James Franklin’s track record
Ohio State was a 3.5-point favorite (via Caesars) at the time of publication. Since 2014 (his first season), Franklin is 15-15 against the spread as an underdog. He is 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Penn State is 7-23 outright in those 30 games as a dog under Franklin. It is 2-8 outright in home games when the visitor is favored.
Since taking over the program, Franklin is…
- 14-25 against AP ranked teams
- 3-17 against AP Top 10 teams
- 1-9 against Ohio State
The Buckeyes have won 7 straight over the Nittany Lions. After suffering 1-point losses in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018, Penn State has lost by an average of 11 points per game over the last 5.
Because of the expanded College Football Playoff, losing this game might not be a season-killer. It would be hard for the CFP selection committee to exclude an 11-1 Penn State if the only loss was to a team that either played for or won the Big Ten title. But this game carries significance for Franklin all on its own. His reputation thus far is that of a coach who has beaten up on the weaker part of the conference and consistently come up short in the biggest moments. If Penn State were to lose an eighth straight game to Ohio State, at home no less, there would be those who would say Franklin cannot win something of substance in State College. And they’d have a pretty strong argument.
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