Betting Stuff: Top 25 prop bets for 2024 season

Top 25 Week here at SDS has just about wrapped up. Today, we’re taking a look at how I’m betting on the upcoming college football season, from player awards to win totals to the national championship. We’ll revisit this piece once the 2024 season concludes to see where I missed the mark. Hopefully, the red isn’t too prevalent.

Let’s dive in.

25. Miami to make the ACC Championship Game (+220 via Caesars)

Miami went 5-7 in Year 1 and then 7-6 in Year 2 under Mario Cristobal. I expect a big jump in Year 3, not too dissimilar to what Texas did under Steve Sarkisian. The pieces are there. The signs are there. Miami underperformed its expected win total last season — a marker for improvement. Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Miami is top-30 in returning production when factoring in transfers. Cristobal killed it in the transfer portal and has put together excellent high school classes. Like Texas prior to the 2023 season, Miami struggled in 1-score games. Like Texas in the 2023 season, Miami has an early out-of-conference game that can provide a huge confidence boost. Virginia Tech and Florida State are at home. Lousiville is on the road off a bye while the Cards will be playing their fifth game in 5 weeks. Miami doesn’t play SMU or Clemson in the regular season and the game you might otherwise circle as a trap game (Georgia Tech on the road before a bye) probably gets the Canes’ full attention after what happened last year.

24. Utah to win the Big 12 Championship (+320 via DraftKings)

The Utes won 8 games last season in spite of downright disgusting injury luck. The silver lining of having to constantly dip into the reserves is that Utah might now have one of the deepest teams in the country. The Utes have their 2-time conference-championship-winning quarterback to lead them once again. And between Brant Kuithe’s return and a quietly strong portal haul (Dorian Singer is one of the best pickups of the offseason), Utah could have its best passing attack of the Cam Rising era. Defensively, they’re as safe a bet as any. Utah plays Oklahoma State (in Stillwater) and Arizona in back-to-back weeks to close out September. If they go 1-1 there, they’ve got 7 games in 9 weeks to close out the regular season during which they should be favorites in every game.

23. Oklahoma State to make the Big 12 Championship Game (+250 via DraftKings)

Oklahoma State returns every player of significance on offense, including Doak Walker-winning running back Ollie Gordon II. What was an inexperienced defense last season returns mostly intact. The Cowboys get Utah at home on Sept. 21, and they’re 32-7 at home since 2018. I like the Pokes to beat the Utes in Stillwater, which would give them some wiggle room to lose to someone like Kansas State and still make the title game. I’ve written about Oklahoma State a ton this offseason; I’m much higher on Mike Gundy’s group than the sportsbooks. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. If I’m right, there’s a ton of money to be had betting on the Cowboys. Only 6 Power conference teams have been better against their preseason win totals than Oklahoma State over the last 3 years.

22. Oregon to win the Big Ten Championship (+225 via ESPN Bet)

At every position, Oregon is loaded. There’s depth at running back. There are 3 senior receivers as good as any trio in the country, and quality depth behind them. Tight end is well-stocked. The offensive line has a pair of potential first-round picks at the tackle spots. The interior of the defensive line is huge. The edge has disruptive experience and potential. The secondary had questions, and Dan Lanning answered them via the transfer portal. Oregon returned major contributors (wideout Tez Johnson, edge Jordan Burch, tackles Ajani Cornelius and Josh Conerly Jr.) and scored huge portal wins in areas of need (quarterback Dillon Gabriel, defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, corner Jabbar Muhammad). I have Oregon finishing the regular season 11-1 and winning the Big Ten.

21. Georgia to win the SEC Championship (+200 via ESPN Bet)

Do I need to explain this one much or can we just move on?

20. App State to win the Sun Belt Championship (+300 via Bet365)

Appalachian State is a darkhorse Playoff contender in my eyes. If there’s a multi-loss champion from the American or the Mountain West, the Mountaineers have a chance. They play Clemson on Sept. 7, which can serve the team well win or lose. The rest of the big games are at home. They have Liberty on Sept. 28 and James Madison on Nov. 23. That game against the Dukes will determine who wins the Sun Belt’s East Division. I like App State, which will be coming off a bye. Quarterback Joey Aguilar returns after breaking single-season program records for touchdown passes (33), passing yardage (3757), and total offense (4,002). Each of App State’s top 4 receivers return in 2024, as do the top 2 tight ends, so this could turn into one of the best offenses outside the Core 4 leagues.

19. Florida to have more regular-season wins than Colorado (+135 via DraftKings)

DraftKings is most definitely trolling with this one. If you navigate to the “wins” tab in their college football odds page, there’s a sub-category with head-to-head matchups. There are some messy ones — USC or Oklahoma. In the case of Florida against Colorado, I think the wrong school is favored. Florida has a path to 6 wins. I don’t like it, but the path exists. Colorado does not have a path to 6 wins. Nebraska on the road, plus a conference schedule that will have the Buffs facing each of the Big 12’s top 5 teams. Colorado may have fixed its offensive line (may) but there was just so much work that needed to be done this offseason, I don’t believe another significant roster flip gets the job done. The most likely scenario is another 4-8 season. Florida is much more talented, though it’s in a tougher conference with a significantly less forgiving schedule. Still, the Gators probably don’t bottom out to that degree.

18. UCF over 7.5 wins (-110 via Bet365)

UCF won 6 games last season. It lost 5 straight to begin Big 12 play before winning 3 of its final 4 — including a 45-3 beatdown of then-No. 15 Oklahoma State. Three of the Knights’ 6 regular-season losses came by less than 3 points. They lost to Baylor 36-35 on Sept. 30 after being outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter. They lost at Oklahoma 31-29 after taking a 23-17 lead into the fourth. And they lost to Texas Tech 24-23 on Nov. 18. Kansas was the only team all year to beat UCF by more than 13 points. Their point differential was that of an 8-win team. With KJ Jefferson and Peny Boone added to a backfield that already had a 1,400-yard rusher, the Knights could have one of the best rushing attacks in the country.

17. Oklahoma State over 8.5 wins (+122 via FanDuel)

As mentioned above with Oklahoma State, all of the pieces are in place for the Cowboys to roll in 2024. Games against Utah and West Virginia are at home. They miss Kansas, they miss Iowa State, and they miss Arizona. I have the best running back in America and 3 losses to work with? I’m taking that every day of the week.

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16. Northwestern under 4.5 wins (+100 via ESPN Bet)

The Wildcats punched above their weight in 2023. They emerged from a tumultuous offseason and won 8 games with an interim-turned-permanent head coach. They had 3 wins by 3 points or less and played in a total of 8 games decided by 8 points or less (6-2). On the season, they were actually outscored by 6 total points. Over the last 3 years, only Purdue (2022) and Coastal Carolina (2022) have won at least 8 games while posting a negative point differential over the course of an entire season. Both took steps back the next year. Northwestern won’t have a homefield advantage, playing the bulk of its games in a makeshift stadium next to Lake Michigan while its new stadium is being built. Northwestern also has a significant question mark hanging over the quarterback spot. The Wildcats have to play Ohio State and Michigan. They’ll play Iowa on the road. They have to travel to Seattle to face Washington. This is going to be a very challenging year for coach David Braun. To that end, the Wildcats’ win total was 5.5 back in May and now you have to shop around to get positive odds on the under.

15. Rutgers over 6.5 wins (+105 via BetMGM)

Rutgers gave up just 21 points a game last fall, its fewest since the 2012 season when the team was co-Big East champions. Mohamed Toure returns after posting 9.5 tackles for loss last year. He’s joined by safety Flip Dixon as well as a pair of edge rushers in Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey who combined to produce 62 quarterback pressures last season. The pass defense was great and should once again be stout. The Big Ten’s leading rusher last fall, Kyle Monangai, also returns. He had 1,262 yards at 5.2 a carry. Where RU had question marks, Greg Schiano hit the portal for reinforcements. A better pass game with Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis at the controls will have Rutgers in a good spot. Plus, the Scarlet Knights won’t face any of the Big Ten’s elites.

14. SMU over 8.5 wins (+125 via Caesars)

Something that made me stop and think: A bet on the Mustangs clearing 8.5 wins pays $220 on a $100 ticket at Caesars while a bet on the Mustangs clearing 8 wins pays $166.6 on a $100 ticket at DraftKings. That’s a pretty significant difference. (Most other major books have plus odds on an over ticket for SMU’s win total, which is 8.5 everywhere but DraftKings.) On the heels of an 11-3 season that featured an American Conference title, SMU has the fourth-easiest schedule in the ACC, per FPI. With known commodities on both sides of the football (quarterback Preston Stone, defensive lineman Elijah Roberts), SMU feels like a safe bet to be involved in the ACC title race late into the season. The Ponies don’t play Clemson or Miami, and they have Florida State at home.

13. North Carolina under 7.5 wins (+100 via BetMGM)

North Carolina had a bad offseason. The Tar Heels closed out the 2023 season with 5 losses in 7 games. (The only wins were a 52-point drubbing of FCS Campbell and a 47-45 double-overtime win over a Duke team that was without Riley Leonard.) Since then, they’ve said goodbye to star quarterback Drake Maye and receiver Tez Walker, along with 47% of last year’s overall production. (They bring back 53%, per Bill Connelly, 99th in the FBS.) They failed to sign a top-25 high school class and signed a 10-play transfer class that ranked 59th. They’ve had to repeatedly fight off rumors that Mack Brown, who turns 73 later this month, is nearing retirement. After 2 straight seasons that started hot and fell apart, things could get a little rocky if North Carolina loses to Minnesota or James Madison in nonconference play.

12. South Carolina under 5.5 wins (+110 via FanDuel)

Who did Shane Beamer upset inside the league office? From Oct. 5 through the final day of the regular season, South Carolina has the following (in order): Ole Miss, Alabama on the road, Oklahoma on the road, Texas A&M after a bye, Vanderbilt on the road, Missouri, Wofford, and Clemson on the road. Two wins? And they play Kentucky on the road just 2 weeks into the season. And they turn around and play LSU a week later. The Gamecocks have some continuity on defense and a pair of potential difference-makers on offense in quarterback LaNorris Sellers and Nyck Harbor, but they have virtually no room to get this thing off the ground.

11. Ole Miss over 9.5 wins (-110 via FanDuel)

I have Ole Miss clearing double-digit wins and making it to the College Football Playoff. There hasn’t been a better P5 team over the last 3 years than Lane Kiffin’s Rebels when compared to their expectations. Since the start of the 2021 season, Vegas has expected 22 wins and Ole Miss has delivered 28. That plus-6 differential is only matched by Michigan. Ole Miss doesn’t face Texas in the regular season, and it gets Oklahoma at home — where the Rebs are 19-2 over the past 3 years. Georgia comes to Oxford as well. That Nov. 9 meeting is going to be a big one for Lane Kiffin and this program; they’ve spent the bulk of the offseason talking about their loss to Georgia last year serving as motivation to bridge the gap. Kiffin signed the No. 1 transfer class in the country attempting to do just that. The offensive and defensive lines were the emphasis. If Kiffin’s moves work, Ole Miss can have its best-ever regular season.

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10. Missouri over 9.5 wins (+146 via FanDuel)

Missouri was 29th in scoring last season, averaging 32.5 points a game. It ranked 21st in offensive efficiency, averaging 6.5 yards per play, and 21st in points per scoring opportunity. In order to build on last year’s success, Missouri might need its offense to crack the top 10 in terms of scoring. That would mean 38, 39 points a game on offense. Quarterback Brady Cook has all the tools around him to make that happen. Three starters on the offensive line return. The 2 gaps were filled by plug-and-play transfers. All 6 receivers who caught a pass last season return, including star Luther Burden. The top tight end is back. The ground game has to be rebuilt, but Missouri added 2 transfer backs who combined for 2,184 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. The Tigers miss Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, and Tennessee. They get Oklahoma at home in November. They’ve got a road game against Alabama to close out October. Missouri could very well steal a spot in the SEC title game.

9. Brady Cook to lead the SEC in passing yardage (+800 via Bet365)

Georgia’s Carson Beck averaged 281.5 yards per game last year through the air. Cook averaged 255.2. With Cody Schrader departing and Cook having each of his top 3 receivers back — including one of the best in the country in Luther Burden — I can see Missouri’s leading passer bridging the gap. There were several occasions last season where Missouri just didn’t need Cook to win. That won’t be the case anymore. If the Tigers are going to improve upon last year, Cook will need to play an even larger role in the team’s success.

8. Tetairoa McMillan to win the Biletnikoff Award (+700 via Bet365)

Missouri’s Luther Burden is equally deserving. But the 6-foot-5 McMillan is in line for a monster season in Tucson. As a true sophomore last year, he brought in 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns. McMillan was a huge benefactor of the quarterback change from Jayden de Laura to Noah Fifita during the season; Fifita and McMillan played high school ball together and their chemistry was immediately there when Fifita entered the starting lineup. No player in the country last year had more contested targets than McMillan (34, per PFF) and Rome Odunze was the only player with more contested catches than McMillan (17). He’s the kind of receiver who can beat any coverage, the kind of option Fifita can just throw in the vicinity of and feel comfortable. Burden will have bigger games with Missouri more involved in the CFP discussion, but I think McMillan’s numbers will be undeniable.

7. Colston Loveland to win the Mackey Award (+650 via Bet365)

Loveland was the top tight end in the Big Ten last season, bringing in 45 receptions for 649 yards. He’s the leading returning tight end in the country, and he has a very strong argument to be labeled the best tight end in college football. With Michigan changing the page at quarterback and losing its top 2 receivers, it would make sense to let an inexperienced passer lean on Loveland.

6. Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy (+750 via ESPN Bet)

The former Oklahoma and UCF passer is in line to inherit a goldmine of sorts within Oregon’s offense. The Ducks are a high-octane unit with playmakers all over the field. Led by a point guard-like performance from Bo Nix last season, they ranked second in scoring and second in per-play efficiency. Gabriel produced 42 total touchdowns and 4,033 yards of offense last year at Oklahoma, and I think those numbers get a bump with Oregon. Within the Ducks’ offense, gaudy stat lines are the norm. Gabriel is the preseason favorite, and the last 5 quarterbacks to win the award all produced 50 touchdowns in their respective seasons. I think Gabriel can get there.

5. Memphis to make the College Football Playoff (+650 via Caesars)

A Group of 5 champion is getting into the field; the trick this preseason is figuring out which team will have the easiest path to a conference title while still doing enough to impress the Playoff selection committee. Boise State lost 6 games last year, will have an inexperienced quarterback, and has games against Oregon, Washington State, and Oregon State. Liberty could go unbeaten but because of its cupcake-laden schedule and dismal showing in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Flames are fighting perception in a major way. In the 4 seasons prior, the AAC champion was the G5’s representative in the New Year’s 6. I’ve gone back and forth this offseason, but I think I’ve landed on Memphis, which can lean on fourth-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan. Receivers Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee bring back a combined 1,984 receiving yards from 2023. Mario Anderson joins the backfield after leading South Carolina in rushing last year. Memphis might have a top-10 offense.

4. Miami to make the College Football Playoff (+220 via DraftKings)

I have 5 teams from the SEC making the Playoff. I have 3 teams from the Big Ten making the CFP. As the No. 2 in the ACC, Miami would get in.

3. Utah to make the College Football Playoff (+260 via Bet365)

If Utah is winning the Big 12, Utah is getting into the Playoff. The big question here is whether 2 teams from the Big 12 get in. Until we’re told otherwise, I’m siding with no.

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2. Clemson to make the College Football Playoff (+200 via FanDuel)

I have Clemson making the ACC Championship Game and beating Miami. Clemson is one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country, so I trust the floor to stay high despite all the turnover on that side. The offense brings back 7 linemen who started at least 2 games last year, its top rusher, its top tight end, and 4 of the top 5 wideouts. If the Cade Klubnik/Garrett Riley combination is any better, Clemson is the safest pick in the ACC.

1. Georgia to win the National Championship (+325 via ESPN Bet)

Brett Ciancia, creator and publisher of Pick Six Previews (my go-to preseason mag), uses what he calls a “Game Grader” formula to derive team strengths. His formula said Georgia was the best team in the country last season. Bill Connelly’s SP+ had a 0.1-point difference between No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Georgia in that model’s closing rankings last season. (Georgia is the clear preseason No. 1 for SP+.) Anybody that watched Georgia knew it was one of the best teams in the country. In sticking the Dawgs in the Orange Bowl, the CFP selection committee made the lives of teams this season that much harder. We’ll see focused violence from Georgia this season. And we’ll learn the value of depth once this new 12-team postseason begins. Georgia has the best coach in the country now that Nick Saban is retired. Georgia has 1 of the 2 best quarterbacks in the country. And only Alabama has recruited better over the last 5 years.