It’s great to start the season in the AP top 10. But is it ultimately that productive? For a quick review, here’s the preseason ranking of the teams that ended the season getting selected in the College Football Playoff.
2021: 1, 5, 8 (Cincinnati), Michigan (unranked/No. 32, received votes)
2020: 1, 2, 3, 10
2019: 1, 4, 5, 6
2018: 1, 2, 7, 12
2017: 1, 5, 7, 15
2016: 1, 2, 6, 14
2015: 3, 5, 12, 19
2014: 1, 2, 3, 5
So yes, with the exception of Michigan last year, everybody who ended the year in the CFP was ranked to open the season. But 6 teams outside the top 10 ended up in the CFB, and 12 teams outside the top 5 crashed the party. Everybody loves those outsider stories, but for those to happen, some of the big dogs have to miss out. Here’s why the top 10 could end up outside the CFP picture — in a single reason that doesn’t involve an injury to a key player.
No. 1 Alabama: WRs aren’t electric
Alabama was very nearly a unanimous pick at No. 1. They return the best offensive player (QB Bryce Young) and defensive player (Edge Will Anderson Jr.) and plenty of other NFL prospects.
Weakness is relative, but if the Tide’s revamped wide receiver room can’t play up to program standards, a repeat of last season’s finish could cause problems earlier in the season.
Is it likely? No. The No. 1 preseason team has made the Playoff every year but 2015 — when unanimous No. 1 Ohio State fell short.
No. 2 Ohio State: Run defense falls short again
Ohio State has changed defensive coordinators in hopes of changing their fortune.
Last season, the Buckeyes’ inability to stop Oregon or Michigan on the ground led to their only 2 losses and elimination from the Playoff discussion.
Oregon ran for 269 yards and 3 TDs. Michigan pounded the rock 41 times for 297 yards and 6 TDs.
CJ Stroud threw for almost 900 combined yards with 5 TDs in those games — and it wasn’t enough.
Jim Knowles’ task is to ensure OSU’s run defense gives Stroud and Co. a shot.
No. 3 Georgia: Expectations
Now that UGA has chased down that national title after 40+ years, how will they bear the weight of being (as a certain SEC hoops coach likes to claim) “everybody’s Super Bowl.” There hasn’t been a repeat champ in the CFP era, and in the nation’s toughest conference, there’s no lack of quality teams that’ll paint a bulls-eye on the Bulldogs. Do they have enough talent to beat that jinx? Sure. Will they? History is not much help.
No. 4 Clemson: Quarterback
Maybe DJ Uiagalelei is the answer. Or 5-star freshman Cade Klubnik can answer the call. But Clemson’s best football has come with certainties under center. Not question marks. Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence aren’t walking through that door. The quarterback situation looms even larger because the Tigers are breaking in a new offensive coordinator. They have a new defensive coordinator, too, but we’re trying to stick to one reason. Not being absolutely sold on who QB1 is — or how good he’ll be — is good enough for now.
No. 5 Notre Dame: Schedule
Props to the Fighting Irish for facing a schedule that isn’t exactly their usual Big Ten JV fest. That said, it’ll be their undoing. Opening up at Ohio State is … well, it’s something. Considering how Notre Dame has fared against top competition, there’s every chance that the Buckeyes blast them into the teens of the AP poll after Week 1. Clemson and USC likewise have the potential to burst the Notre Dame bubble. If ND can manage an 11-1 slate, it’ll pay off. But it looks much more like a 9-3 kind of run from here, which ends up somewhere that’s definitely not the CFP.
No. 6 Texas A&M: The league
Outlasting Bama and outpunching Georgia is a tall order. Yes, A&M has a historic recruiting class. Yes, Jimbo Fisher is sincere about making the climb. But how much easier would A&M’s quest be in the Big Ten, much less the ACC or the Big 12? Miami, Arkansas, the Mississippi schools, life is too hard for the Aggies to plan to vault over the SEC’s biggest guns, at least in 2022.
No. 7 Utah: Reputation
For the Utes, it’s less can they win the games as much as can they win the battle of public opinion. It’s kind of fair to acknowledge that west coast football hasn’t felt relevant in SEC country since Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush. When the battle comes down to a second team from the SEC or even the Big Ten against a Utah team that, say, loses to USC or Oregon, it’s hard to imagine that going the Utes’ way. They’ll likely have to go undefeated.
No. 8 Michigan: The pass rush
The Wolverines upset their way into last year’s CFP, but it’ll be harder to do it a second time. One big reason– the pass rush has to be a bit of a question mark. Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo gave Michigan a front-four that covered a multitude of errors. They combined for 25 of Michigan’s 34 sacks. For a UM team that won 3 games by a single score — including 2 on the road — last year, the difference in QB pressure could well be the difference in 11-1 and, say, 9-3. Which won’t get them back in the CFP.
No. 9 Oklahoma: The offensive line
A year ago, Oklahoma gave up 33 sacks, next-to-worst in the Big 12. The Sooners have plenty of offensive weapons, but without the help up front, will it matter? OU lost 3 starters, and while they’re excited about Cal transfer McKade Mettauer, the reality is that OU will likely field an offense that has CFP-level skill position guys, but an offensive line that won’t carry the weight up front to get them to those heights come bowl season.
No. 10 Baylor: The back seven on defense
Dave Aranda did a wonderful turn-around job for the Bears, but Baylor’s back seven will be tough to replace. Safeties Jalen Pitre and JT Woods were stellar … and both are gone. So is LB Terrel Bernard and CB Raleigh Texada. That’s 4 of the top 6 tacklers now gone, and that includes the team’s leaders in tackles, tackles for loss, sacks and interceptions. Baylor will still be stout, but will that defense have enough playmaking to hang onto games in the Big 12? Probably not enough to end up in the CFP.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
