Skip to content

Ad Disclosure

College Football

Clemson vs. SMU: 3 matchups that will define the ACC Championship Game (and a prediction)

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game in Charlotte pits No. 17 Clemson and No. 8 SMU (8 pm, ABC) with a College Football Playoff berth hanging in the balance.

SMU is favored by 2.5 points, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Mustangs (11-1, 8-0) would certainly warrant at-large consideration with a loss, though they lack the quality wins of fellow at-large contenders Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina.

More likely, this is a winner-take-all contest where not only is a conference champion crowned, but 1 solitary Playoff berth is reserved for the ACC, which will have a nervy Selection Sunday waiting on whether Miami earns a berth based on the eye test and great quarterback play at 10-2 despite a paucity of quality victories.

You’d rather be in SMU or Clemson’s shoes, playing with the knowledge that if you win, you’re in.

For SMU, it’s the rare opportunity to win a championship in Year 1 in a new conference. Virginia Tech was the most recent team to accomplish that in a power league, winning the ACC Championship in its first campaign in the league in 2004.

For Clemson, an ACC Championship is old hat under head ball coach Dabo Swinney. The Tigers have captured 8 ACC championships under Swinney, the most recent coming in 2022. A victory would secure Clemson’s 7th College Football Playoff appearance under Swinney, but this would be the program’s first since 2020.

There are some similarities between the teams. Both have explosive offenses, with with the Tigers ranking in the top 20 nationally in explosive passes (20 yards or more) and explosive runs (10 yards or more) and SMU ranking in the top 20 in the explosive pass category. Both feature marvelous defensive lines, with both ranking in the top 25 nationally in quarterback pressures and havoc rate.

But there are fun contrasts.

The game pits one of college football’s top offensive minds in SMU’s Rhett Lashlee against one of college football’s most fearsome defenses (Clemson). It’s a great “styles make fights” matchup that should make for a fun night in the Queen City.

Here are 3 matchups that will define who wins the ACC Championship and earns the automatic berth to the College Football Playoff.

SMU’s struggling run game vs. Clemson’s struggling run defense

The weaknesses appear to be on a collision course.

On paper, SMU has a solid rushing offense. The Mustangs rank 48th nationally in the run game and 50th in rushing success rate, both respectable numbers. The Mustangs also have a first-team All-ACC running back in Brashard Smith (1,157 yards, 15 rushing touchdowns). Smith runs with terrific patience and vision and is tough to catch if he can get to the second level.

Once you look under the hood, though, the story is more dicey. SMU has rushed for just 4.02 yards per carry in their past 3 games, a .72 yard per rush drop from September and October. Smith averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in wins over Virginia and Cal down the stretch. While Cal has one of the better run defenses in America (18th), Virginia does not. This isn’t simply about opponent. The Mustangs are not blocking in the running game as well as they did in September and October. PFF grades bear that out, as the run game blocking grades are over 10 points lower than they were in SMU’s first 9 games.

They’ll face a Clemson defense that has played woefully against the run in November.

After allowing just 2.2 yards per carry in the running game during a 6-game winning streak earlier this season, Clemson has surrendered over 200 yards rushing in 3 of its past 5 games, including 288 to The Citadel, an FCS opponent. Last week, the Tigers largely slowed rival South Carolina’s traditional run game but were torched on quarterback runs ad scrambles by LaNorris Sellers, the Gamecocks’ magnificent young quarterback.

Some of this success is just Sellers doing special things, but focus on the end of the run. Several Clemson tacklers take poor angles, allowing Sellers to cut back and score. Clemson’s missed tackle rate of 28% against the run in their past 2 games ranks last in the ACC. Yuck. That must be better on Saturday night or SMU will win the ACC Championship.

Clemson’s pressure with 5 vs. SMU QB Kevin Jennings

Rhett Lashlee has one of the best “pure” quarterbacks he’s coached in Kevin Jennings, who has an excellent, accurate arm and pocket presence while still being able to make the off-schedule throws and scramble plays that made Lashlee’s Auburn offenses so lethal with Nick Marshall.

Jennings’ ability to extend plays with his legs and make the proper reads gives SMU the balance they’ve needed to become the nation’s 5th most efficient SP+ offense, which is an efficiency metric based on tempo and adjusted for strength of opponent.

With Jennings under center, Lashlee is playing at a slower tempo than ever before. SMU ranks 72nd in plays per game — the lowest spot for a Lashlee-coached team in his career as a coordinator or a head coach. Instead, SMU simply executes, relying on Jennings to consistently make the right reads in Lashlee’s power spread offense.

There aren’t tendencies that are readily identifiable, either, which makes SMU tough to defend.

The Mustangs run out of “20” (2 running backs) and “11” (1 RB, 1 TE) personnel at 47.5% and 49% rates, respectively. This means Clemson can’t cheat safeties or bring run blitzes depending on look. Instead, the Tigers will likely hope to get pressure with 4, using one linebacker in spy/containment on Jennings.

In that regard, the South Carolina game was a good way for Clemson to prepare for SMU.

But will Clemson get home when it does bring pressure?

The bulk of Clemson’s pressure system comes in the form of 5-man schemes, mainly a fire zone where the Tigers bring an added hat toward the ball and drop into a 3-deep zone. The blitzer can come from a host of angles, but Butkus Award finalist Barrett Carter is best when he lines up centrally and attacks the edge, as in this sack against the Gamecocks in a fire zone blitz last season.

Clemson defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin is extremely aggressive on run downs, blitzing on 37% of those plays, a number that’s good for 3rd in the Power 4, per Stats Solutions. The Tigers can also run the same paths from different defensive packages, ranging from a traditional 4-2-5 to a Cover 3 with a nickelback playing almost like a third safety.

But the success of the packages against running quarterbacks so often depends on whether defensive linemen can win 1-on-1s.

TJ Parker was good against South Carolina, generating 4 pressures and collecting a sack (above). Peter Woods was solid too, creating 4 pressures and 3 hurries from the end and defensive tackle positions.

But the Tigers will need more from the other 2 mainstays on their defensive front, especially Payton Page, who played 44 snaps against South Carolina but graded out as the worst Clemson defender to play 20 snaps or more, per PFF.

If the Tigers can pressure Jennings consistently, the Mustangs quarterback is far less accurate and much more mistake prone.  Nine of Jennings’ 13 “turnover worthy” plays this season have come from pressure. To win another ACC title, Clemson needs to cash in on Jennings’ lone weakness.

Clemson WR Antonio Williams vs. SMU CB Deuce Harmon

Individual matchups are tough to project, but Clemson’s best receiver against SMU’s best cover corner is a predictable one that may be vital to the outcome on Saturday night.

Williams has 66 receptions and 10 touchdowns this season. Harmon has yet to allow a touchdown in coverage and grades out as 1 of the top 25 coverage corners in America, per PFF.

Harmon, who transferred from Texas A&M, is used to high profile 1-on-1s, which were his specialty at Texas A&M.

But Williams will be the most talented receiver he’s matched up with this year. The sophomore has caught 26 passes and 4 touchdowns in the past 3 games alone, hauling in all but 4 of his targets in that span.

Clemson ranks 16th in the country in explosive passing plays, having completed 49 throws of 20 yards or more. Williams has 7 such receptions since Nov. 16. He’s Cade Klubnik’s biggest gamechanger and could define who wins this football game by winning this matchup.

Prediction: SMU 30, Clemson 27

The Tigers are playing 2 hours from home and should have overwhelming crowd support. But when is the last time Dabo Swinney won a big game? SMU builds a big lead with the running game and holds a Clemson rally off late to win the ACC title and clinch its first Playoff bid.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

You might also like...

2024 RANKINGS

presented by rankings

Read our Privacy Policy, Terms and Conditions, Cookie Policy and

© 2025 Saturday Down South. All rights reserved

We do not target any individuals under the age of 21. We support responsible gambling. If you feel like you're losing control over your gambling experience, call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA, WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-888- 532-3500(Virginia) 1-800-522-4700 (NV, TN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, TN), 1-855-2CALLGA (IL), 1-800-270-7117 (MI). global.footer.legal